美国左翼民粹主义寻找新靶子

If you mention the words “Elizabeth Warren” on Wall Street, many bankers metaphorically foam at the mouth. No wonder. In the long years since the financial crisis, Ms Warren — now a Democratic senator from Massachusetts — has relentlessly attacked the sector with a populist stance that has turned her into a darling of America’s left.

如果你在华尔街说出“伊丽莎白•沃伦”(Elizabeth Warren)这几个字，许多银行业人士会气得七窍生烟。这也难怪。在金融危机爆发后的漫长岁月里，现任马萨诸塞州参议员的沃伦一直坚持不懈站在民粹主义的立场上攻击银行业，这也使她成为了美国左翼的红人。

But a subtle shift is under way. Ms Warren is still merrily attacking bankers whenever she gets the chance. She also enjoys strong support among grassroots Democrats — so much so that Hillary Clinton, the leading Democratic presidential contender, is being forced to adopt many of Ms Warren’s themes to broaden her own appeal to the party.

但现在正在发生一种微妙的变化。沃伦依然一有机会就毫无顾忌地攻击银行家。她还得到了民主党基层的强力支持，以至于连该党领先的总统候选人提名角逐者希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)为了拓宽自己在党内的吸引力，也被迫借用沃伦的许多主题。

Today, however, it is not just Wall Street bankers who are in Ms Warren’s sights. On the contrary, she has recently focused much of her rhetorical fury on President Barack Obama’s efforts to secure fast-track authority to cut trade agreements with Asia and Europe.

然而，现在进入沃伦视野之内的不止是华尔街的银行家们了。相反，她最近将大部分愤怒言辞留给巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统为了同亚洲和欧洲达成贸易协定而争取快车道授权的努力。

This week, for example, Ms Warren demanded that Democrats block the relevant bill, since “the current trade policy makes it nearly impossible to enforce rules that protect hard-working families, but very easy to enforce rules that favour multinational corporations”.

比如，沃伦最近要求民主党封杀相关法案，理由是“当前贸易政策意味着几乎不可能执行保护努力工作的家庭的规定，却容易执行有利于跨国公司的规定”。

And, while Mr Obama has now won this particular fight, the episode highlights that on issues such as trade Ms Warren and other lawmakers from her party such as Sherrod Brown and Chuck Schumer are becoming more adept at co-ordinating well-planned campaigns with unions and other groups.

而且，尽管奥巴马现在赢得了这一次战斗，但这一幕表明，在贸易等问题上，沃伦和谢罗德•布朗(Sherrod Brown)、查克•舒默(Chuck Schumer)等民主党议员正变得更加善于联手工会和其他团体发起精心策划的运动。

There are two big lessons for investors and business executives around the world. First, it is no longer just the populist rightwing of American politics that has the capacity to deliver political surprises. In the years since the crisis, the Tea Party has been the force that has produced the most colourful headlines and forced mainstream politicians to shift their stance. But it is the populist left in America that could produce the political fireworks in the coming months; just take note of the surprising recent political resurgence of the unions on issues such as the minimum wage.

全球投资者和企业高管从中可以汲取两大教训。首先，有能力带来政治震动的不再只有美国的右翼民粹主义势力。在金融危机后的几年中，茶党(Tea Party)势力一直是最精彩的报纸头条的来源，还迫使主流政治人士改变了自身立场。但在接下来的数月中，引燃政治焰火的可能是美国左翼民粹主义势力；只要注意一下近来工会在最低工资等问题上令人惊讶的政治复兴就会明白了。

Second, Wall Street is no longer the only bogeyman people such as Ms Warren love to attack. This is striking. After all, in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, the finance industry was an easy target for populists to unite against. Not only was Wall Street at the centre of a painful financial crisis but many of the bankers themselves, such as Dick Fuld, the brash former chief executive of Lehman Brothers, seemed unable to cope with the public backlash.

第二，华尔街不再是沃伦这样的人士喜欢抨击的唯一恶人。这一点也引人注目。毕竟，在金融危机刚结束的时候，金融业很容易成为民粹主义者团结起来抨击的对象。不止是处于惨痛的金融危机的中心的华尔街，就连傲慢的雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)前首席执行官迪克•富尔德(Dick Fuld)等银行家，似乎在众怒面前也无力招架。

The game has changed. For one thing regulations, such as the Dodd-Frank financial reform act, appear to make the industry safer (never mind that this act is distinctly flawed).

游戏已经改变了。一方面，“多德-弗兰克”金融改革法(Dodd-Frank)等法规似乎让这个行业更安全了（暂且不提该法含有明显缺陷）。

At the same time, many of the current crop of bank chief executives are so dull that they are harder to attack. Brian Moynihan of Bank of America and Michael Corbat of Citigroup are too bland to be easy political targets.

同时，当前这批银行首席执行官中，许多人过于平淡无奇，更难被当作攻击对象。美国银行(Bank of America)首席执行官布赖恩•莫伊尼汉(Brian Moynihan)和花旗集团 (Citigroup)首席执行官迈克尔•科尔巴(Michael Corbat)过于沉稳，不容易成为政治靶子。

Moreover, the issues thrown up by Wall Street are increasingly geeky. Regulators and politicians face the prospect not of bank collapses but of sifting through the arcane entrails of reforms ushered in by Dodd Frank.

此外，华尔街抛出的问题越来越专业化。监管机构和政治人士面临的不是银行破产的前景，而是梳理“多德-弗兰克”法所开启的改革的晦涩细节。

So, as memories of the crisis fade, what voters are most worried about is not whether their savings are safe or whether bankers are earning fat bonuses. Instead, what is on the radar screen are issues such as the scandal of sky-high student loans, disappearing middle-class jobs, police racism or the poor state of education.

因此，随着人们对于金融危机的记忆逐渐消逝，选民们现在最忧虑的不是他们的存款是否安全，或者银行家是否赚取了优厚的奖金，而是学生贷款超高的丑闻、逐渐消逝的中产阶层就业机会、警察的种族主义或者教育水平低下。

And politicians are shifting tack in response. Take a look at Bernie Sanders, the main leftwing challenger to Mrs Clinton who is doing surprisingly well in the polls. Last month he launched his campaign in Vermont with a blistering attack on “wealth inequality” and the “greed” of the “billionaire class”. In this, he called for tax reform and a big new state programme of infrastructure investment — and denounced Mr Obama’s policies on trade. But, while he also included a standard attack on Wall Street — and a call to break up the banks — this was a minor, barely remarked upon section of the speech.

而政治人士也据此改变了策略。看看希拉里•克林顿主要的左翼挑战者伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)吧，他在民调中的表现好得令人吃惊。上月，他在佛蒙特州(Vermont)开始竞选活动，对“财富不平等”和“亿万富翁阶层”的“贪婪”发起了言辞辛辣的攻击。他呼吁进行税制改革，推行新的大规模国家基础建设投资计划——还谴责了奥巴马的贸易政策。但是，尽管他的发言中包含了对华尔街的标准化攻击——以及分拆银行的呼吁——但这只是一个次要部分，只是在演讲的一部分简单提及。

To many bankers, this rhetorical shift will seem like good news. Perhaps for the Clinton campaign, too, which has close ties with many Wall Street financiers. It is less welcome, however, for anyone who hopes to secure those trade deals without further protest.

对很多银行家来说，这种言辞上的转变似乎像是好消息。或许对希拉里•克林顿的竞选来说也是如此，她与华尔街很多金融家关系密切。然而，对于任何希望确保达成贸易协定而不招致更多抗议的人来说，这种转变就不那么受欢迎了。

Either way, the vital point is this: as the level of banker-bashing ebbs, populist leftwing American protest could coalesce around all manner of unexpected themes. America’s C-suite should be warned: the fight over trade may be just a portent of a bigger trend.

无论如何，关键点是：随着抨击银行家的激烈程度渐渐减轻，美国左翼民粹主义势力可能会围绕各式各样意想不到的主题团结起来。美国企业的高层应该当心了：关于贸易的争斗或许只是一种更大趋势的前兆。