欧洲悲观主义决定欧盟未来
In an old Polish joke, a Frenchman and a Russian are travelling in opposite directions on the Moscow to Paris express when their trains pull into Warsaw central station at the same time. Mistakenly believing they have reached their final destination, each steps out of the train and on to the platform.
有一个波兰老笑话，一个法国人从巴黎乘火车到莫斯科去，一个俄罗斯人从莫斯科乘火车到巴黎去，当他们各自的列车同时驶入华沙中央火车站的时候，两人都误以为自己已经抵达目的地，都走出列车踏上了月台。
My God, Moscow is every bit as desolate as I expected! the Frenchman cries.
我的上帝啊，莫斯科跟我想的一样荒凉！法国人嚷道。
Meanwhile, the Russian exclaims, Ah, Paris is beautiful.
同时俄罗斯人大叫，啊，巴黎真美。
How much has changed since the two gentlemen arrived in Warsaw?
自从这两个人抵达华沙以来，发生了多大变化呢？
The debate about the future of Europe in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU takes place in the shadow of rising Euroscepticism.
在英国民众投票决定退出欧盟(EU)之后，有关欧洲未来的辩论就笼罩在欧洲怀疑主义(Euroscepticism)高涨的阴影之下。
But it could well turn out that it is not Euroscepticism (the belief that the EU is fundamentally evil) that is Europe’s central problem today, but Europessimism, the feeling that the project is doomed.
但事实可能证明，当今欧洲的核心问题并非欧洲怀疑主义（认为欧盟从根本上是恶的），而是欧洲悲观主义(Europessimism)，一种认为欧盟一体化注定失败的想法。
It is not the anger of the Leavers but the worries of those who fear being left out that will decide the future of the EU.
决定欧盟未来的，不是脱欧派的愤怒，而是那些担心被排除在外的人们的忧虑。
Central Europe is the land of Europessimists.
中欧是欧洲悲观主义者的聚集地。
Most people in the Visegrad group of EU member states (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) are still positive about the union but they worry about its survival.
在由捷克、匈牙利、波兰和斯洛伐克这4个欧盟成员国组成的维谢格拉德集团(Visegrad group)，多数人依然对欧盟抱有希望，但他们担心欧盟的存亡问题。
For many, it carries echoes of the disintegration of the Soviet empire.
在很多人来看，苏联帝国解体的遗音正在回响。
The day after the British referendum in June, Poles woke up to the realisation that an estimated 850,000 of their compatriots live and work in a country that wishes no longer to be part of the EU.
在6月英国举行公投后次日，波兰人认识到，据估计有85万波兰同胞在一个希望脱离欧盟的国家生活和工作。
They also saw that Warsaw was in danger of losing a critical ally in its struggle to resist further political integration in the bloc and to balance the preponderant influence of Germany.
他们也看到，在努力抵制欧盟进一步政治一体化、平衡德国作为欧盟主导者的影响力方面，华沙有可能失去一个关键的盟友。
The difficulty here, however, is that while Poles are uneasy about the direction in which the EU is heading, many Europeans are concerned about recent political developments in Poland.
然而，问题在于，在波兰人对欧盟的前进方向感到不安的同时，许多欧洲人也在担忧波兰近期政治动向。
Once the poster child for success in a post-communist world, Poland is deeply divided.
波兰曾经是后共产主义世界中的成功典范，现在却深陷分裂。
Less than a year after the Law and Justice party (PiS) won the general election, the country faces a constitutional crisis fomented by a conspiracy-minded rightwing government.
在法律与正义党(PiS)赢得大选后不到一年，波兰就面临着一场宪法危机，挑起这场危机的正是具有阴谋论思想的右翼政府。
The conservative revolution spearheaded by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the PiS leader, has polarised the country, scaring off foreign investors and minimising Poland’s influence within the EU.
法律与正义党的领袖雅罗斯瓦夫•卡钦斯基(Jaroslaw Kaczynski)发起的保守主义革命让这个国家走向了两极分化，吓走了外国投资者，让波兰在欧盟内的影响力大大减弱。
The government has curbed the powers of the independent judiciary; announced a plan to put the majority of the banking sector back in Polish hands; made public television a propaganda vehicle for conservative Catholic values and has been ruthless in seeing off opponents.
政府已经限制了独立司法机构的权力；宣布了一项让大部分银行业资产重回波兰人控制的计划；让公共电视台成为保守的天主教价值观的宣传工具，并且冷酷无情地打击对手。
A report published in July by the liberal Stefan Batory Foundation asserts that the draft constitutional tribunal law before the Polish parliament would, if it is passed, constitute a serious violation of the principle of the rule of law and a threat to . . . fundamental . . . civil rights and freedoms.
奉行自由主义立场的斯特凡•巴托里基金会(Stefan Batory Foundation)7月发布的一份报告声称，波兰议会将表决的《宪法法院法草案》如果获得通过的话，将严重违反法治原则，构成对基本公民权利和自由的威胁。
From the PiS point of view, it is logical to try to concentrate power in party hands because, if it does not control institutions like the courts, media or central bank they will be controlled by its enemies.
站在法律与正义党的角度，试图把权力集中在本党手中是合理的，因为如果其不控制法院、媒体或者央行等机构，它们就会被该党的敌人控制。
The separation of powers enshrined in liberal democracies does not stop those in charge from abusing their office; instead, it enables them to evade responsibility and stymies popular demands for radical change.
自由民主政体所推崇的三权分立不能阻止掌权者滥用职权，反而使他们能够逃避责任，阻挠民众对根本改革的诉求。
One could be forgiven for assuming that such a government would be Eurosceptic, yet neither it nor the majority of Poles wants to leave the EU.
如果人们认为这样一个政府抱着欧洲怀疑主义，这情有可原，但无论是波兰政府还是波兰多数民众都不想脱离欧盟。
The bloc therefore has a tough choice to make.
因此欧盟必须做出一个艰难的选择。
The European Commission and some member states are tempted to insist that the Polish government has violated the values of the EU and to seek legal recourse.
欧盟委员会(European Commission)和一些成员国不免认为波兰政府违反了欧盟价值观，并有意诉诸法律手段。
With Britain having voted in favour of Brexit, some in Brussels believe that the EU should demonstrate not only that it can hurt the Leavers but also that it has the power to sanction those who break the rules.
英国投票结果倒向退欧之后，布鲁塞尔的一些人士认为，欧盟应该对外展示，其不仅能够伤害到脱欧派，也有权力制裁那些违反规则的人。
Such a policy would be a mistake.
这样的政策是错的。
Brussels and the individual member states should not shy away from criticising Poland, of course, but they should make clear that reinventing and reinvigorating the EU will not take place at the expense of central Europe.
当然，布鲁塞尔方面和各成员国不应回避批评波兰，但它们应该明确表示，重塑和复兴欧盟不会以牺牲中欧利益作为代价。
Any reform of the EU that looks like it will split the bloc along the west-east axis will further the process of disintegration.
任何看上去可能将欧盟分裂为东西两部分的欧盟改革方案只会进一步促进欧盟解体。
European politics today presents a paradox: in their vision for the EU, central European governments appear to represent the frustration and resentment of the populists, yet it is their own pro-EU voters to whom they are answerable.
当今欧洲政治领域存在一种矛盾：在他们关于欧盟的设想中，中欧国家政府似乎代表了民粹主义者的失望和怨恨情绪，然而他们需要对本国的亲欧盟选民负责。
So Brussels should not be in a hurry to write central Europe off.
因此，布鲁塞尔不应急着放弃中欧。
