德国 未来的欧洲第一绿色大国

BERLIN — A week at the American Academy in Berlin leaves me with two contradictory feelings: one is that Germany today deserves a Nobel Peace Prize, and the other is that Germany tomorrow will have to overcome its deeply ingrained post-World War II pacifism and become a more serious, activist global power. And I say both as a compliment.

柏林——在柏林美国学院(American Academy)度过的一周，给我留下两个相互矛盾的感受：一是今天的德国理应得到一座诺贝尔和平奖，二是明天的德国必须摒弃二战以来根深蒂固的和平主义，成为一股更威严、更主动的全球力量。两者都是一种赞誉。

On the first point, what the Germans have done in converting almost 30 percent of their electric grid to solar and wind energy from near zero in about 15 years has been a great contribution to the stability of our planet and its climate. The centerpiece of the German Energiewende, or energy transformation, was an extremely generous “feed-in tariff” that made it a no-brainer for Germans to install solar power (or wind) at home and receive a predictable high price for the energy generated off their own rooftops.

关于第一点，德国人已经把电网中将近三成的电力来源转换成太阳能和风能，大概15年前这个比例接近零，这对我们这个星球和气候的稳定性是有重大意义的。德国的Energiewende（能源转型）的核心是“上网电价补贴”(feed-in tariff)，该政策给出的条件极为优厚，让德国人毫不犹豫地开始在家中安装太阳能（或风能），而且自家屋顶产生的能源能够卖出可预见的高价。

There is no denying that the early days of the feed-in tariff were expensive. The subsidies cost billions of euros, paid for through a surcharge on everyone’s electric bill. But the goal was not simply to buy more renewable energy: It was to create demand that would drive down the cost of solar and wind to make them mainstream, affordable options. And, in that, Energiewende has been an undiluted success. With price drops of more than 80 percent for solar, and 55 percent for wind, zero-carbon energy is now competitive with fossil fuels here.

不可否认的是，上网电价补贴在初期代价会非常大。数十亿欧元的补贴，是通过增收所有人的电费来支付的。但这样做的目的不只是购买更多可再生能源：它要创造需求，以压低太阳能和风能的成本，把它们变成主流的、廉价的能源选项。在这一点上，Energiewende获得了无可争议的成功。太阳能电价降幅超80%，风能降幅55%，现在零排放能源跟化石燃料比是有竞争力的。

“In my view the greatest success of the German energy transition was giving a boost to the Chinese solar panel industry,” said Ralf Fücks, the president of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, the German Green Party’s political foundation. “We created the mass market, and that led to the increased productivity and dramatic decrease in cost.” And all this in a country whose northern tip is the same latitude as the southern tip of Alaska!

“在我看来，德国能源转型的最大成功在于促进了中国太阳能产业的发展，”德国绿党(Green Party)下属政治基金会海因里希·伯尔(Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung)的会长阿尔夫·富克斯(Ralf Fücks)说。“我们在这一领域创造了大众市场，从而提高生产效率，大幅压低成本。”这一切，都是由一个国土北端跟阿拉斯加南端在同一纬度上的国家实现的！

This is a world-saving achievement. And, happily, as the price fell, the subsidies for new installations also dropped. The Germans who installed solar ended up making money, which is why the program remains popular, except in coal-producing regions. Today, more than 1.4 million German households and cooperatives are generating their own solar/wind electricity. “There are now a thousand energy cooperatives operated by private people,” said the energy economist Claudia Kemfert.

这是一项拯救世界的成就。而且令人欣喜的是，随着价格的下降，对新装用户的补贴也下降了。安装了太阳能板的德国人最终是赚钱的，这就是为什么该项目始终很受欢迎，只有产煤区例外。目前德国有140多万户家庭和协作组织在使用自己的太阳能/风能电力。“现在有上千个私立能源协作组织在运行，”能源经济学家克劳迪娅·肯福尔特(Claudia Kemfert)说。

Oliver Krischer, the vice chairman of the Green Party’s parliamentary group, told me: “I have a friend who comes home, and, if the sun is shining, he doesn’t even say hello to his wife. He first goes downstairs and looks at the meter to see what [electricity] he has produced himself. ... The idea now is that energy is something you can [produce] on your own. It’s a new development.” And it has created so much pushback against the country’s four major coal/nuclear utilities that one of them, , just split into two companies — one focusing on squeezing the last profits from coal, oil, gas and nuclear, while the other focuses on renewables. Germans jokingly call them “” and “.”

绿党议会党团副主席奥列佛·科舍尔(Oliver Krischer)告诉我：“我有个朋友，在有太阳的日子，到家都顾不上跟妻子打招呼，会径直到楼下去查电表，看看自己发了多少[电]。现在有了能源可以自己来[生产]的观念。这是个进展。”该国的四大煤电/核电公司受到极大冲击，以至于其中意昂集团()分拆成了两个公司——一个专注于榨取煤炭、石油、天然气和核能最后的一点利润，另一个专注可再生能源。德国人开玩笑说它们分别叫“”和“”。

One problem: Germany still has tons of cheap, dirty lignite coal that is used as backup power for wind and solar, because cleaner natural gas is more expensive and nuclear is being phased out.

这里有一个问题：德国仍然有大量廉价、肮脏的褐煤，用来作为风能和太阳能的后备，因为更清洁的天然气要更贵，而核能正被逐步淘汰。

So if that’s the story on renewable power, how about national power? Two generations after World War II, Germany’s reticence to project any power outside its borders is deeply ingrained in the political psyche here. That is a good thing, given Germany’s past. But it is not sustainable. There is an impressive weight to Germany today — derived from the quality of its governing institution, its rule of law, and the sheer power of its economy built on midsize businesses — that is unique in Europe.

可再生电力是这样，那么国家势力的情况如何呢？经过二战后两代人的发展，不愿意将自己的力量伸展到国境之外的心态，已在德国政治中深深扎根。考虑到历史，这是好事。但这是不可持续的。以当今德国的地位之重要，在欧洲绝无仅有——这是源于它在行政制度、法治方面的高水准，以及基于中型企业的强势经济。

When you talk to German officials about Greece, their main complaint is not about Greek fiscal policy, which is better lately, but about the rot and corruption in Greece’s governing institutions. The Greeks “couldn’t implement the structural reforms they needed if they wanted to,” one German financial official said to me. Athens’s institutions are a mess.

当你跟德国官员谈起希腊时，他们的主要不满不是希腊的财政政策——这方面近来已经好转了——而是它的政府机构的腐败。一位德国财政官员跟我说，希腊人“无法实施结构性改革，有这个意愿也做不到。”希腊的政府部门一团糟。

With America less interested in Europe, Britain fading away both from the European Union and the last vestiges of it being a global military power, France and Italy economically hobbled and most NATO members shrinking their defense budgets, I don’t see how Germany avoids exercising more leadership. Its economic sanctions are already the most important counter to Russian aggression in Ukraine. And in the Mediterranean Sea, where Europe now faces a rising tide of refugees (and where Russia and China just announced that their navies will hold a joint exercise in mid-May), Germany will have to catalyze some kind of E.U. naval response.

美国对欧洲的兴趣在减少，英国正淡出欧盟，而最后仅存的那点作为全球性军事力量的身份，也将荡然无存，法国和意大利的经济不振，大多数北约(NATO)国家都在缩减国防预算，德国发挥更多领导作用，在我看来是不可避免的。它对俄罗斯的经济制裁，目前是对抗该国对乌克兰的进犯的最重要手段。此外在地中海，欧洲要面对一股越来越汹涌的难民潮（而俄罗斯和中国刚宣布，两国海军五月中旬会在那里举行联合军事演习），德国别无选择，只能力主欧盟海上力量进行某种回应。

The relative weight of German power vis-à-vis the rest of Europe just keeps growing, but don’t say that out loud here. A German foreign policy official put their dilemma this way: “We have to get used to assuming more leadership and be aware of how reluctant others are to have Germany lead — so we have to do it through the E.U.”

德国跟其他欧洲国家在影响力上的差距还会进一步拉大，但话不能说太直白。一位德国外交政策官员表达了他们的两难境地：“我们要做好担负更多领导角色的准备，并且要清楚，其他国家有多不情愿让德国来带头——所以我们必须通过欧盟行事。”

Here’s my prediction: Germany will be Europe’s first green, solar-powered superpower. Can those attributes coexist in one country, you ask? They’re going to have to.

我的预测：德国会是欧洲第一个绿色的、由太阳能驱动的超级大国。你也许会问，一个国家能同时具备这几个属性吗？他们别无选择。