朝鲜举行纪念活动展示对现任领导人效忠

North Korea sought to project loyalty to its ruling family at a rally Tuesday to mark the second anniversary of the death of Kim Jong Il after the recent execution of a senior regime figure for allegedly planning a coup.

朝鲜在近期以策划政变为由处决一名政府高官之后，试图通过周二举行的纪念金正日(Kim Jong Il)逝世两周年活动来展现对金氏政权的效忠。

In Seoul, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin told military commanders that North Korea might stage attacks against the South early next year to solidify support for current dictator Kim Jong Un.

韩国国防部长金宽镇(Kim Kwan-jin)在首尔对军方指挥官表示，朝鲜可能在明年初对韩国发起攻击，以巩固对现任领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)的忠诚。

The unprecedented public downfall last week of Jang Song Thaek, a longtime senior North Korean official and uncle of Mr. Kim, has raised concerns of instability and volatile behavior from Pyongyang. South Korean President Park Geun-hye warned on Monday of 'reckless provocations' by North Korea.

上周朝鲜以前所未有的公开方式处决了长期位居要职、金正恩的姑父张成泽(Jang Song Thaek)，令人对朝鲜政局不稳以及可能采取异常行动而感到担心。韩国总统 槿惠(Park Geun-hye)周一对朝鲜可能发动不计后果的挑 行为发出警告。

Seoul's defense ministry has repeatedly said it hasn't seen any unusual military movements in the North following the dramatic arrest and execution of Mr. Jang. But on Tuesday, Defense Minister Mr. Kim told military commanders that provocations are most likely between late January and early March next year after the North has made necessary preparations, according to a spokesman.

韩国国防部多次表示，在张成泽被戏剧化逮捕并处决之后，没有发现朝鲜有任何不寻常的军事调动。但发言人称，周二国防部长金宽镇对军方指挥官表示，朝鲜在进行必要的准备之后，很可能在明年1月底至3月初期间采取挑 行动。

Ms. Park and Mr. Kim have called for extra vigilance and readiness to respond to provocations, including along the disputed maritime border in the Yellow Sea. North Korea staged two attacks against the South in the region in 2010 that killed 50 people.

槿惠和金宽镇指示军警加强警戒，准备应对挑 行为，其中包括有争议的黄海海域边界地区。朝鲜曾在2010年对该地区发起两次攻击，造成50人死亡。

Analysts are divided on whether the purge of Mr. Jang signals wider instability in the regime. But some note that the accusation made by North Korea that Mr. Jang had been building a plot to overthrow the dictator could backfire by undermining confidence in the leadership.

对于清洗张成泽是否是朝鲜政权更加不稳的迹象，分析人士意见分歧。不过一些人指出，朝鲜指控张成泽密谋推翻金正恩，恰恰削弱了对金氏政权的信心。

North Koreans are fed a constant flow of propaganda about universal devotion to the ruling Kim family. The suggestion of a long-brewing challenge to that at a senior level, even if not true, could foster instability, analysts say.

朝鲜人一直被宣传机构灌输要永远效忠金氏家族。分析人士认为，张成泽事件意味着在高层长期酝酿挑战，即使并非如此，也将加剧政局动荡。

'In the short-term, the political system unified under a single leader reminiscent of Kim Jong Il's rule appears to be taking shape, but there is greater structural insecurity in wider society,' said Philo Kim, a professor at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University.

首尔大学(Seoul National University)和平与统一研究所(Institute for Peace and Unification Studies)教授Philo Kim称，短期而言，朝鲜似乎形成了单一领导人掌权的政治体制，令人回想起金正日在位时的情形，但是在更广泛的社会中存在更大的结构性不安全因素。

At a rally of hundreds of military and political leaders at an indoor auditorium in Pyongyang, senior figures delivered eulogies to the elder Mr. Kim and issued calls to rally behind his son. Kim Yong Nam, North Korea's ceremonial head of state, called for the current leader to be held 'as the unitary center of unity.'

在数千名军政高官参加在平壤一个大礼堂举行的纪念活动中，高级官员对金正日致悼词，并宣誓效忠他的儿子。朝鲜最高人民会议常任委员长金永南(Kim Yong Nam)号召以金正恩为“惟一中心”。

Analysts studied the footage, shown on North Korean state television, for indications of other changes in the regime hierarchy following the purge of Mr. Jang. The only notable figure missing was Kim Jong Un's aunt, Kim Kyong Hui, although she is believed to have retained a senior position in the regime after she was included in a list of top officials for a state event over the weekend.

分析人士研究了朝鲜国家电视台播放的视频，以寻找清洗张成泽之后朝鲜政坛是否有其他变化的迹象。惟一明显的是，金正恩的姑姑金敬姬(Kim Kyong Hui)没有露面，不过她在周末列入一位去世高官的治丧委员会委员名单中，据信地位得以保留。

Senior leaders also visited the mausoleum where Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung, the current leader's grandfather, lie in state. Mr. Kim was accompanied by his wife, Ri Sol Ju, who hadn't been seen in public for several weeks and was the subject of speculation about her position in the regime.

高官们还参拜了安放前两代领导人金日成(Kim Il Sung)和金正日遗体的锦绣山太阳宫；金日成是金正恩的爷爷。金正恩携妻子李雪主(Ri Sol Ju)到太阳宫拜谒，李雪主此前数周没有公开现身，引发了她在政权中地位的猜测。