BIS:全球经济陷入"恶性循环"

The global economy is experiencing a "vicious cycle" in which the efforts of governments, households, businesses and the financial sector to reduce their debts are worsening each others' prospects, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.

国际清算银行(BIS)警告，全球经济正处于"恶性循环"之中，各国政府、家庭、企业和金融业削减债务的努力正在导致彼此的前景不断恶化。

Stephen Cecchetti, chief economist of the BIS–often referred to as the bank for central banks–said five years after the financial crisis engulfed the global economy, the world appears no closer to finding a sustainable economic model.

BIS首席经济学家史蒂芬•切凯蒂(Stephen Cecchetti)表示，自从5年前金融危机席卷了全球经济，世界至今依然茫无头绪，找不到一种可持续的经济模式。BIS常被称作"央行的央行"。

Not until regulators get to grips with the banking system's woes by forcing banks to recognise losses, take write-offs and raise capital can the path to sustainable growth begin, he said.

切凯蒂表示，在各国监管部门迫使银行承担损失、进行资产减记并增资，从而化解银行体系的困境之后，全球经济才有望踏上可持续的增长道路。

"The revitalisation of the banks and the moderation of the financial industry will end this destructive interaction with the other sectors and clear the way for the next steps–fiscal consolidation and the deleveraging of the private, non-financial sector," Mr Cecchetti said, unveiling the bank's 2012 annual report. "Only then can we return to a balanced growth path."

切凯蒂在公布BIS 2012年度报告时表示："当银行恢复元气、金融业企稳时，该行业与其他部门之间具有破坏性的相互作用就会终止，这将为接下来的事情——财政巩固以及私人非金融行业的去杠杆化——扫清道路。"

The report underscores the challenges facing governments, particularly in advanced economies, as they struggle to contain spending and recoup revenue lost as output collapses.

报告中强调了各国政府面临的挑战，尤其是发达经济体的政府，它们正在努力控制开支，弥补由于产出下降导致的税收减少。

Indeed, the study says the budgets of most advanced economies, excluding interest payments, "would need 20 consecutive years of surpluses exceeding 2 per cent of gross domestic product–starting now–just to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio back to its pre-crisis level".

报告指出，在大多数发达经济体，"要使债务与GDP比率恢复到危机前的水平，基本预算盈余（不计利息支出）占GDP的比率需要连续20年保持在2%以上的水平"。

Moreover, monetary policy has been bearing the brunt of efforts to adjust. These cannot go on forever and carry their own risks as economies become dependent on ultra-low interest rates, the BIS says.

此外，货币政策一直受到调整努力的极大影响。BIS指出，这种情况不会永远持续下去，而且，随着各国经济日渐依赖于超低利率，这种做法本身就带有风险。

"There are very clear limits to what central banks can do," Mr Cecchetti said, summing up the annual report. "They cannot repair balance sheets. They cannot increase productivity. And they cannot put policy on a sustainable path."

切凯蒂在概述年度报告时表示："各国央行能做的事十分有限，它们无法修补资产负债表，它们无法提高生产率，它们也无法让政策走上可持续的道路。"

Every additional year that policy makers fail to get to grips with long-term fiscal consolidation makes the recovery period even longer, he warned.

他警告说，除非政策制定者能够解决长期财政巩固的问题，否则复苏就会遥遥无期。

While the risks are greatest for developed economies–especially Europe–the BIS notes that risks are rising for emerging economies, particularly those that have experienced rapid growth through exports to more industrialised neighbours. These include Russia, India and Thailand.

发达经济体——尤其是欧洲——面临的风险最大，不过BIS也指出，新兴经济体面临的风险正在上升，特别是那些通过向工业化程度更高的邻近国家出口而实现快速增长的国家，如俄罗斯、印度和泰国。