迪拜房价为什么连续七个季度下跌

Property in Dubai has fallen in price for seven consecutive quarters. Prime prices in July were 10 per cent below levels from two years ago. In the second quarter of this year, home sales slumped almost a third on the previous year. The Gulf city-state’s recent travails would have most high-end estate agents crying into their champagne cocktails.

迪拜的房产价格已经连续七个季度下跌了。今年7月份的高端住宅价格与两年前相比下降了10%。今年第二季度的住宅销量则较上年同期猛跌了约三分之一。这座海湾城邦型国家近期经历的阵痛应该会让绝大多数高端地产经纪人哭晕在他们的香槟鸡尾酒里。

David Godchaux, who runs local agent Core, source of the sales figures, is having none of it. “Over the past 18 months, the market has lost between 6 per cent and 15 per cent, depending where you look,” he says. “But this is Dubai’s first really healthy correction.”

但大卫.戈德肖(David Godchaux)并不感到悲观。他经营着迪拜本地经纪公司Core，该公司主要提供房产销售数据。“在过去的十八个月中，迪拜房地产市场的跌幅在6%至15%之间，这取决于你所关注的方面。但这是迪拜房市首次真正意义上的健康调整。”

His point is that Dubai has seen much worse. In the wake of the financial crisis, following a furious speculative boom, property prices slumped, losing 40 per cent in the first three months of 2009 alone, according to the agency Knight Frank. By November that year, helped by huge losses at Nakheel, its property division, the government-owned investment vehicle Dubai World announced it would delay repayment on $59bn of debts, raising the spectre of the largest sovereign default since that of Argentina in 2001.

在他看来，迪拜经历过远比这更糟的情况。在金融危机爆发初期，迪拜房产价格大幅下挫，来自房地产经纪公司莱坊(Knight Frank)的数据显示，仅2009年头三个月内的跌幅就达到了40%，而在此之前迪拜刚经历了一轮汹涌的地产投机热潮。到了2009年11月，迪拜国有投资公司迪拜世界(Dubai World)宣布将延期偿还590亿美元的债务，受旗下房地产分支Nakheel的大规模损失影响，这是自2001年阿根廷事件以来规模最大的主权债违约。

Indebted property owners, who had bought multiple properties with wafer-thin deposits, fled the country, fearing jail for missed mortgage repayments. Newspaper articles carried pictures of abandoned supercars at Dubai airport.

负债累累的房产所有者——他们靠着像威化饼干一样薄弱的储蓄基础购买了多套房产——纷纷逃离迪拜，因为担心无法按期偿还抵押贷款会导致他们被投入监狱。新闻报道中常有超级跑车被遗弃在迪拜机场的图片。

By contrast, the recent price falls feel benign. To Godchaux, they demonstrate an economy that is more diversified, a mortgage industry that has learnt its lesson — a 25 per cent minimum deposit, increasing for second and more expensive homes, has been introduced — and a banking industry that is better regulated. “Buyers haven’t all left at the same time. Fewer of them are speculators, and those that are have deeper pockets,” he says.

与之形成对比的是，近期房价下跌给人的感觉较为良性。在戈德肖看来，这些现象表明，迪拜作为一个经济体已变得更加多元化，抵押贷款行业也已吸取了经验教训——引入了25%的首付比例要求，该比例在个人购买下一套或者更加昂贵的住宅时还会进一步上浮——对银行业的监管也有所加强。“买家们并未全部同时离场。买家中的投机者变少了，而且如今的投机者也拥有更强的资金实力。”他表示。

Dubai may have weathered this price fall better than the last, and it may be one of the world’s top five cities for individuals with a net worth of more than $30m, according to Knight Frank’s 2016 survey of the super-rich. Yet the lesson of the parlous performance of Dubai property since 2014 is that this is very much an emerging market, at the whim of outside influences that drive global capital flows.

迪拜或许能比上一次更好地应对此轮房价下跌，据莱坊2016年的超级富豪调查显示，迪拜或许是净资产超过3000万美元的个人在全球范围内最青睐的五座城市之一。迪拜房地产市场自2014年以来的危险走势所带来的启示是，这在很大程度上仍是一个新兴市场，受制于驱使全球资本流动的外部影响。

“The real estate sector, in particular, depends on a number of global and regional fundamentals,” says Maria Morris, who runs Knight Frank’s Dubai prime business.

负责管理莱坊在迪拜高端住宅业务的玛利亚.莫里斯(Maria Morris)表示：“房地产行业尤其取决于全球和地区范围内的一系列基本面因素。”

A sudden sell-off by Russian investors, following sanctions imposed early in 2014 by the EU and the US, was one factor behind the price falls this time, say agents. The recent strengthening of the dollar, to which the UAE dirham is pegged, was another. To foreign buyers, property looked pricey. To foreign owners, it looked like time to cut losses.

地产经纪们表示，在2014年初欧盟和美国对俄罗斯实施制裁之后，俄罗斯投资者突如其来的抛售潮是导致此次房价下跌的因素之一。近期美元汇率走强则是另一个原因——阿联酋货币迪拉姆实行相对于美元的盯住汇率制度。对于外国买家来说，迪拜房产的价格看起来很贵，而对外国的住宅所有者而言，这似乎是止损的好时机。

Dubai’s sensitivity to countries beyond its shores extends to the workers its economy relies on. Fewer than 12 per cent of those who live in the UAE are citizens, according to the UN. The majority of non-citizens work in low-paid jobs, and are a group the government is increasingly keen to cater for in order to combat the risk of their sudden departure. Half of UAE expats polled by YouGov last year said they would consider leaving because of the high cost of living. Efforts to provide affordable housing — which include a proposal for new residential projects to contain a mandatory quota of low-cost homes — may struggle, say agents.

迪拜对其他国家的敏感性还进一步表现在它的经济对外来劳工的依赖上。来自联合国(UN)的数据显示，在阿联酋的常住人口中，只有不到12%的人为本国公民，而非公民中的绝大部分人都在从事低薪工作。阿联酋政府正在越来越重视迎合这一群体的需要，以防范他们突然离去的风险。去年YouGov调查了阿联酋外籍人士，半数受访者表示他们会考虑离开，因为阿联酋的生活成本高昂。地产经纪人表示，政府正努力提供经济适用住房，比如，政府推出了一个要求新建住宅项目必须包含某一强制比率的低成本住宅的提案，但这个提案或许会遇到很大阻力。

With a 25 per cent deposit required and buying costs of 6.5 per cent, according to Savills, buyers must raise almost a third of the value of a new home. Even the cheapest of these under the proposed quota system will cost about Dh500,000 ($136,000), says Godchaux. “Most will struggle to save what they need for these homes, even if they save for 10 years,” he says. In addition, most local mortgage lenders require incomes of at least Dh15,000 to Dh20,000 a month before granting mortgages, he adds. Lower-paid workers might get Dh10,000 per month, perhaps less.

第一太平戴维斯(Savills)表示，因有25%的首付要求，以及6.5%的购房费用，买家们在购房时必须预先筹得约占新房价三分之一的资金。戈德肖表示，按照目前提出的比例要求，即便购买最便宜的房产也要花费约50万迪拉姆（合13.6万美元）。“绝大多数人为了支付购买这些住宅所需的金额将会拼命存钱，即便他们需要存上十年。”除此之外，绝大多数迪拜本地的抵押贷款商要求贷款人的月收入至少达到1.5万至2万迪拉姆才会批准贷款，戈德肖补充说。而低收入工人的月收入或许只有1万迪拉姆，甚至可能更少。

For affluent buyers from abroad, who dominate Dubai’s prime market, there is no problem of affordability. Average prime prices are 60 per cent lower than average prime New York homes; 75 per cent cheaper per sq ft than prime London; and 85 per cent less than top-end prices in Hong Kong, according to Core.

对于来自国外的富有买家来说——这一群体主宰了迪拜的高端住房市场——偿付能力不成问题。来自经纪公司Core的数据显示，迪拜高端住宅的平均价格比纽约高端住宅的平均价格低了60%；与伦敦高端住宅每平方英尺的价格相比便宜了75%；与香港顶级住宅的价格相比则便宜了85%。

Savills is selling a five-bedroom house with a pool in Arabian Ranches, south of Downtown, for Dh6.2m ($1.68m), roughly what you would pay for a two-bedroom flat in a good spot in New York, London or Hong Kong. For buyers who want something a little plusher, the same agent has a large house with lake views and parking for six cars in Emirates Hills, for just under Dh22m ($6m).

第一太平戴维斯正在出售一栋带有游泳池的五卧室住宅，该住宅位于迪拜市中心以南的阿拉伯牧场(Arabian Ranches)，售价620万迪拉姆（合168万美元），这差不多是在纽约、伦敦或香港的优质地段购买一套两卧室公寓的价钱。对于品味更加奢华的买家来说，第一太平戴维斯还有一套位于酋长山庄(Emirates Hills)住宅区的豪宅可供选购，该豪宅可观湖景，拥有六个停车位，售价不到2200万迪拉姆（合600万美元）。

Recent price drops have meant bargains for even the best stock. At Palm Jumeirah — the distinctive, palm-shaped artificial archipelago completed in 2009 — prices of apartments dropped 7 per cent year on year in June. Downtown, prices have fallen off 12 per cent, according to Core. In the downtown Burj Khalifa building, the tallest in the world, Knight Frank has a four-bedroom apartment for sale for Dh70m ($19m).

近期的房价跌势意味着即便是最优质的存量住宅现在也在降价出售。在朱美拉棕榈岛(Palm Jumeirah)——这座独一无二、棕榈叶形状的人工群岛于2009年完工——今年6月的公寓价格较上年同期下跌了7%。而来自Core的数据显示，迪拜市中心的房价已经下跌了12%。在市中心的哈利法塔(BurjKhalifa)——这是目前全球第一高建筑——莱坊正在以7000万迪拉姆（合1900万美元）的价格出售一套四卧室公寓。

However, strong underlying rental demand has kept prices from dropping further in the flagship developments, say agents, and the growing rental yields occasioned by falling capital values could yet provide the silver lining to Dubai’s current property cloud. Research by Savills puts the average 2016 yields for Dubai homes a shade under 4.5 per cent. At the best units this can reach 6 per cent, with occupancy levels close to 90 per cent, says Core.

但地产经纪们表示，强劲的潜在租房需求使得旗舰房地产开发项目的房价免于进一步下跌，而由固定资本价值下降引起的租赁收益率上升或许会给目前乌云笼罩的迪拜地产市场带来一线曙光。据第一太平戴维斯的研究估算，2016年迪拜住宅的平均租金收益率或略低于4.5%。Core则表示，对于最好的房源来说，租金收益率可以达到6%，而且入住率接近于90%。

Buying guide

购房指南

● All buyers pay a 4 per cent transfer fee; those from abroad are restricted to freehold purchases

● 所有买家须支付4%的转让费；来自海外的买家仅限于购买可终身保有的不动产

● An average prime home costs $2.1m

● 高端住宅的平均价格为210万美元

● The city-state of Dubai is the most populous of the seven emirates that comprise the United Arab Emirates

● 迪拜作为一个城邦型国家，是组成阿联酋的七个酋长国中人口最多的那一个

What you can buy for . . .

你能买到什么样的房子. . .

$1m A three-bedroom apartment in City Walk, a new-build development in the Jumeirah area with pool, gym and porter

● 花100万美元可以在City Walk买一套带三个卧室的公寓，这是朱美拉(Jumeirah)地区新建的一个带游泳池、健身房以及门童服务的房地产开发项目。

$2m A four-bedroom house with a pool close to the beach on Palm Jumeirah

● 花200万美元可以在靠近朱美拉棕榈岛沙滩的地方买一栋带有四个卧室的住宅

$3.5m A seven-bedroom house in Emirates Hills, with staff quarters

● 花350万美元可以在酋长山庄住宅区买一栋带佣人房的七卧室住宅。