油价反弹创年内新高 重回40美元上方

Oil jumped back above $40 a barrel yesterday for the first time this year and iron ore posted its biggest one-day gain on record as more traders bet that the worst of the 20-month commodity rout was over.

油价昨日反弹至每桶40美元上方，这是今年以来的第一次，同时铁矿石价格出现有记录以来的最大单日涨幅，越来越多的交易员们押注持续20个月的大宗商品低迷已度过最糟糕阶段。

The slump in oil and other commodity prices had raised concerns for the health of the wider economy, with central banks warning of a possible deflationary spiral and a sharp slowdown in emerging market growth.

石油和其他大宗商品价格暴跌已引发了对整体经济健康状况的担忧，一些央行警告可能出现通缩螺旋，同时新兴市场增长大幅放缓。

But moves by some of the world’s largest oil producers to agree an output freeze have helped to put a floor under prices, with Brent crude rebounding by 50 per cent since mid-January.

但是，全球一些最大的产油国同意冻结产量之举帮助设置了价格下限，布伦特原油(Brent crude)自1月中旬以来反弹50%。

The international oil benchmark gained 5.6 per cent to $40.96 a barrel — the highest since mid-December and with gains since mid-January reaching 50.4 per cent. It remains well below the near-$100-a-barrel level it averaged between 2010 and 2014.

这一国际油价基准昨日上涨5.6%，至每桶40.96美元，这是自12月中旬以来的最高点，自1月中旬以来的涨幅达到50.4%，但仍远低于2010年至2014年期间每桶近100美元的平均水平。

Iron ore, one of the key commodities for many miners, rose almost 20 per cent to $62.60 a tonne — the biggest one-day rise since the index began in 2009.

铁矿石是许多矿商的主要大宗商品之一，昨日上涨近20%，至每吨62.60美元，这是自2009年开始编制价格指数以来的最大单日涨幅。

Officials in China, the world’s largest importer of oil and metals, have vowed to avoid a hard landing as they try to move away from manufacturing and infrastructure spending towards a more service-based economy.

在全球最大石油和金属进口国中国，官员们誓言要避免经济硬着陆。中国正试图推动经济转型，从依赖制造业和基础设施支出转向更多依赖于服务业。

While analysts caution that excess supplies in many commodity markets should continue to weigh on prices, the near-panic-level selling seen in January has abated. “I think that if we’re not at the bottom then we can’t be far off,” said Julian Kettle, head of metals at Wood Mackenzie. “People are starting to get far less negative about China.”

尽管分析师们告诫称，许多大宗商品市场上的供应过剩将继续令价格承压，但是1月份出现的近乎恐慌的抛售已经消退。“我认为，即使我们尚未触底，我们也不可能距离谷底太远，”咨询公司Wood Mackenzie金属部门主管的朱利安•凯特尔(Julian Kettle)表示。“人们对中国的负面情绪开始消散了。”

Natural resources stocks have been some of the biggest beneficiaries, with Glencore and Anglo American’s share price both almost doubling since the beginning of the year after being the worst performers on the FTSE 100 in 2015. They led gains alongside Chilean copper miner Antofagasta, which is up 75 per cent since January 20.

自然资源类股票属于主要受益者之列，其中嘉能可(Glencore)和英美资源(Anglo American)在2015年沦为富时100指数(FTSE 100)表现最差成份股之后，自今年初以来股价均上涨近一倍。这两家矿商与智利铜矿公司Antofagasta领涨，后者的股票自1月20日以来上涨75%。

Copper, aluminium and zinc have all rallied by 10-25 per cent since January.

铜、铝和锌价自1月以来反弹10%至25%。

China will tackle overcapacity in its steel and coal sector, policymakers said at the annual meeting of the national legislature in Beijing at the weekend.

中国政策制定者上周末在北京举行的全国人大年会上表示，中国将致力解决钢铁和煤炭行业的产能过剩。

Saudi Arabian officials are to meet Russian counterparts in coming weeks to see if the world’s top two oil exporters can lead other producers to freeze output, as many have seen their national budgets squeezed by the price collapse.

沙特阿拉伯官员将在未来几周会晤俄罗斯官员，看看全球两大石油出口国能否带动其它产油国冻结产量，目前许多产油国的政府预算受到油价暴跌的挤压。

Hedge funds have largely switched from betting against the oil price at the start of the year to positioning themselves for further gains, regulatory data show. US oil production has started to decline in the face of lower prices, though companies may keep output going if the price recovers further.

监管申报数据显示，对冲基金已在很大程度上从今年初押注油价下跌转向押注价格进一步上涨。面对油价低迷，美国石油产量已开始下降，但如果价格进一步复苏，企业可能会保持产量。

“We’ve seen a return of risk appetite,” said Michael Wittner, analyst at Société Générale. “[But] it’s going to be volatile and it’s not a slam dunk that prices keep going up from here in a straight line.”

“我们已经看到风险偏好回归，”法国兴业银行(Société Générale)分析师迈克尔•威特纳(Michael Wittner)表示。“但是波动性将会较高，不能保证价格将从目前水平直线上升。”