肉制品行业面临岔路口 Meat: Out of the frying pan

As Eric, a technician in his 20s, sat at a café in London’s Soho on Thursday morning ready to tuck into a breakfast fry-up of sausages, bacon, eggs, potatoes and toast, any thoughts about possible health repercussions were taking a back seat to his appetite. Asked about the World Health Organisation’s declaration this week that bacon, sausage and other processed meats were carcinogenic, he shrugged.

世界卫生组织(WHO)上月宣布培根、香肠等加工肉制品属于致癌物。这一消息公布3天后的那个周四早上，二十多岁的技术人员埃里克(Eric)坐在伦敦苏活区一家咖啡馆里，准备开始享用早餐。他的早餐包括：香肠、培根、煎鸡蛋、炸土豆和吐司。所有关于这些东西可能有害健康的想法都要为他的胃口让道。当被问及如何看待世卫组织宣布的那条消息时，埃里克耸了耸肩。

“It feels like everything is at risk of giving you cancer these days, so I don’t feel it’s a reason to stop eating,” he says. “I do eat a lot of meat but not much bacon. You can only try to eat healthier.”

他说：“我觉得现如今好像一切东西都有致癌风险，所以我不觉得有必要因此戒掉它们。我平常确实很能吃肉，但不太吃培根。人只能尽量吃得更健康。”

In popular culture, too, the reaction to the cancer report has been a resolute “hands off my bacon”. On The Late Show, presenter Stephen Colbert said only the waft of frying bacon could get his two teenage boys out of bed in the morning. “You think they’re going to come running down the stairs to the scent of me washing kale?”

大众态度也是如此。对于世卫组织最新发布的这份报告，人们坚决表示“别动我的培根”。《深夜秀》(The Late Show)主持人斯蒂芬科尔伯特(Stephen Colbert)在节目中说，每天早晨只有煎培根的香味能把他两个十几岁大的儿子叫醒。“你觉得他们能因为闻到我洗羽衣甘蓝的味跑下楼吗？”

But such sympathies have offeRed little comfort to the meat industry, which has reacted furiously to the study by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, based in Lyon, France.

可是民众的支持并没有令肉制品行业感到多少安慰，该行业已对总部设在法国里昂的国际癌症研究机构(IARC)作出愤怒回应。

The North American Meat Institute called the report “dramatic and alarmist over-reach”, suggesting that it was the work of new agers. “Only one substance, a chemical in yoga pants, has been declared by IARC not to cause cancer,” said Barry Carpenter, Nami president.

北美肉类协会（North American Meat Institute，简称NAMI）称这份报告“过于夸张，危言耸听”，认为该研究简直像出自新时代运动者(New Ager)手笔。协会负责人巴里愠浓祟(Barry Carpenter)说：“IARC宣布不会致癌的只有一种物质——瑜伽裤中的一种化学物质。”

In the home of Parma ham, the trade body representing producers of Italian prosciutto, mortadella and bresaola fretted about the “possible economic impact, which could lead to job losses”.

在帕尔马火腿的故乡，代表意大利火腿、意式肉肠和意大利风干牛肉生产商的行业协会表示担忧，认为此事“可能产生经济影响，从而造成人们失业”。

Perhaps they are right to be worried. While the link between the risk of cancer and eating too much processed and smoked meat is not new, the certainty with which the IARC has classified processed meat as a Group 1 carcinogenic — a group that includes tobacco and asbestos — has been a surprise.

他们的担忧或许不无道理。癌症风险与吃太多加工肉制品和烟熏肉制品之间的联系并不新鲜，但此次IARC如此明确地将加工肉制品列为1级致癌物，与烟草、石棉同属一类，着实令人意外。

“This does not mean they are equally dangerous,” the report said, a message that appears to have got lost. “Eating processed meat causes colorectal cancer,” but the risk “remains small”.

但人们似乎忽视了一个信息，IARC在报告中表示：“这并不意味着它们的危险等级是一样的。食用加工肉制品会导致肠癌，（但风险）仍然很小。”

For the global meat industry, the health warning is a reminder of the huge shifts in consumer tastes that are already reshaping the business. Demand for processed and red meats is waning in developed markets as customers seek leaner, healthier cuts and more organic fare.

IARC的健康警告提醒全球肉制品行业，消费者口味的巨大转变已经在大大改变这一行业的面貌。在发达市场，更低脂、更健康的肉类以及有机食品正成为新的消费潮流，加工肉制品和红肉的需求正在不断减弱。

This trend has cut across Big Food in general — perhaps most noticeably in the fizzy drinks industry, where a decade-long fall in US sales reflects a consumer backlash against sugar and artificial sweeteners.

这股潮流已经席卷整个“垃圾食品”业(Big Food)，受影响最明显的可能是碳酸饮料行业。在美国，碳酸饮料销量已连续十年下降，反应出消费者对糖和人造甜味剂印象转差。

Red meat consumption in the US and in the UK has been flat or falling for years, while sales of white meat — especially chicken — have been on the rise, in response to health warnings linking high fat content to heart disease.

在英美市场，红肉消费量已多年持平或下降，白肉（尤其是鸡肉）的销量则一直呈上升趋势，响应了关于心脏病与高脂肪食品有关的健康警告。

In the US, though overall per capita red meat consumption remains at six- decade lows, it has been buoyed by the popularity of high-protein/low-carbohydrate diets such as the Caveman or Paleo. And red meat has not been tarnished with the same carcinogenic brush as processed — the IARC said there was only “limited evidence” that red meat caused cancer and that its nutritional value meant it should not be cut out of diets.

在美国，虽然人均红肉消费量大体仍保持在60年来的低点，但 “穴居人饮食法”(Caveman)和“原始人饮食法”(Paleo)等高蛋白、低碳水化合物饮食的流行，一直对红肉消费起着支撑作用。而且红肉并未像加工肉制品那样，被标为1级致癌物，IARC表示只发现“有限证据”表明红肉致癌，但红肉有很高的营养价值，不应将它从饮食中去掉。

But it had no such reassuring message for producers of frankfurters, ham, corned beef and jerky — meat that has been transformed through processes such as salting, curing or fermentation. The question now for companies that produce processed meat is how to react to the health warnings.

可是对于经过盐渍、腌制或发酵等工艺处理的肉制品（如法兰克福香肠、火腿、咸牛肉和牛肉干）的生产商来说，IARC并没有传递这样令人宽慰的消息。那些生产加工肉制品的企业现在面临的问题是，对这一健康预警应作何反应？

John Britton, professor of epidemiology and director of the UK Centre for Tobacco Control Studies at Nottingham University, says the meat industry should learn from the mistakes of the tobacco industry. “The responsible thing is to look at why your products are causing harm and act to change them. The irresponsible thing, which is what the tobacco industry did, is to challenge the evidence, say it’s not reliable and question the credentials of the scientists involved,” he says.

诺丁汉大学(Nottingham University)英国烟草控制研究中心(UK Centre for Tobacco Control Studies)主任，流行病学教授约翰布里顿(John Britton)表示，肉制品行业应从烟草业的错误中吸取教训。他说：“负责任的做法是探究为什么你的产品会造成危害，并采取措施加以改变。不负责任的做法是质疑证据，称其不可靠，并质疑相关科学家的资质，烟草业就是这么做的。”

But Marion Nestle, professor of nutrition and food studies at New York University says the meat industry “is still in the denial stage”.

但纽约大学(New York University)营养与食品研究教授玛丽昂蔠斯特莱(Marion Nestle)表示，肉制品行业“仍处于否认阶段”。

“From their standpoint it is bad science,” she says. “The first thing you do is attack the science — right out of the tobacco industry’s playbook.”

她说：“在他们看来，这是伪科学。他们做的第一件事就是攻击科学，完全照搬烟草业的路数。”

Analysts say the pressure on processed meat — and the broader processed food industry — is not going to go away, since the shift to more wholesome foods still has a long way to run. Many upstart companies have capitalised on this, offering organic or leaner products and taking market share away from established groups.

分析师表示加工肉制品乃至广大加工食品业的压力不会消失，因为向更健康食品的转变道路还很长。许多新创公司便利用了这一点，提供有机或更低脂的产品，从老牌企业那里夺得市场份额。

“Consumer tastes are shifting but not so fast that companies cannot capitalise on them,” says Nicholas Fereday, senior analyst at Rabobank International. “Smart companies are moving.”

荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)高级分析师尼古拉斯费里迪(Nicholas Fereday)说：“消费者的口味在转变，但还没有快到让企业来不及加以利用。聪明的企业已经在行动了。”

Mr Fereday notes that Hormel, the 124-year-old maker of Spam, recognised these trends when it bought Applegate Farms, a natural and organic meat business, this year. “We do recognise that more and more consumers today are seeking foods that are minimally processed and have no preservatives,” Hormel said this week. The company has been introducing more products that contain no preservatives or added nitrates at its Jennie-O Turkey Store and at Applegate.

费里迪指出，世棒(Spam)午餐肉的制造商，创立124年的荷美尔(Hormel)已经认识到这一趋势，该公司今年收购了天然有机肉类企业阿普尔盖特农场(Applegate Farms)。荷美尔近期表示：“我们已经认识到，如今越来越多的消费者寻求尽量少加工、不含防腐剂的食品。”该公司不断在旗下Jennie-O Turkey Store和阿普尔盖特农场推出更多不含防腐剂、不添加硝酸盐的产品。

The healthy food trend also presents new business opportunities, says Alexia Howard, an analyst at Bernstein. She notes that British supermarkets have introduced better quality processed meals, such as Tesco’s mini salmon frittatas with dill Béarnaise.

伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析师亚历克西娅霍华德(Alexia Howard)表示，健康食品风潮也带来了新商机。她指出英国超市已推出更优质的加工食品，比如乐购(Tesco)的迷你三文鱼意式蛋饼配莳萝蛋黄酱。

“Look at the UK, there has been massive evolution in prepared snacks that M&S, Tesco Finest etc do. The US consumer is clamouring for fresher authentic items like that. Costco has gone some way towards it, Whole Foods as well, but there is no holistic offering,” she says of US retailers.

亚历克西娅谈到美国零售商时表示：“看看英国，玛莎百货(M&S)、乐购最优(Tesco Finest)制作的预制零食有了长足的进步。美国消费者疾呼这类更新鲜、可靠的食品。好市多(Costco)已经朝着这一方向迈进了不少，全食(Whole Foods)也是，但尚未推出整体商品。”

But so far, the industry’s main response to shifting appetites has been to cut costs to maintain profit margins.

不过到目前为止，该行业对消费者口味变化的主要反应是削减成本以保持利润率。

After decades of growth, packaged food companies became inefficient and complacent, analysts say, making them an attractive target for outside investors — as in the case of Kraft and Heinz which were both acquired by 3G Capital, the private equity group founded by Brazilian beer billionaire Jorge Paulo Lemann and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. Last year, meat producer Tyson Foods bought rival Hillshire for $8.6bn.

分析师表示，经过几十年的增长期后，包装食品企业已变得效率低下且安于现状，这令它们成为外部投资者的收购目标。比如卡夫(Kraft)和亨氏(Heinz)就双双被3G资本(3G Capital)收购。这家私人股本集团是由巴西啤酒大亨若热保罗莱曼(Jorge Paulo Lemann)和沃伦巴菲特(Warren Buffett)旗下伯克希尔哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)投资集团创立的。去年，肉制品生产商泰森食品(Tyson Foods)以86亿美元收购了竞争对手Hillshire。

But cost-cutting only goes so far. Mr Fereday says companies need to create products with fewer additives and more natural ingredients if they want to keep up with consumer demands.

但削减成本的效果有限。费里迪表示企业如果想跟上消费者需求的节奏，就需要推出添加剂更少、天然成分更多的产品。

“Reformulating inevitably results in higher ingredient costs. Companies may have to accept lower margins going forward as the price to pay for sales growth,” he says. “This may be a tough lesson for food companies to learn: better to have a low-margin business than no business at all.”

费里迪说：“调整产品配方势必导致原材料成本上升。在前进的道路上，企业或许不得不接受较低的利润率，作为销售增长的代价。这对食品企业来说可能是艰难的一课：低利润的生意也好过彻底没生意。”

Yet even as demand for processed and red meat wanes in developed markets, it is growing in emerging markets. Exports of British food to China, including pork, as well as dairy products and salmon, leapt by 12 per cent in terms of sales last year, compared with 2013, according to the UK’s Food and Drink Federation. It hopes that China will approve the import of pigs’ trotters — a “potentially huge” market, according to the Federation.

不过，虽然加工肉制品和红肉在发达市场的需求减弱，它们在新兴市场的需求却在不断上升。据英国食品和饮料联合会(Food and Drink Federation)的资料，2014年英国对华食品出口销售额同比上升12%，食品种类包括猪肉、乳制品和三文鱼。该联合会希望中国能批准进口猪蹄，认为这是一个“潜力巨大”的市场。

Euromonitor says it expects China to overtake the US as the world’s biggest processed meat market this year. It was the main driver of the industry’s 3 per cent growth in 2014.

欧睿(Euromonitor)表示，预计中国今年将超过美国，成为全球最大的加工肉制品市场。2014年加工肉制品业同比增长3%，主要动力来自中国。

China is switching rapidly from a rice and vegetables-based diet to one based on meat. The country is struggling to feed its 1.3bn population, which will be boosted by the end of the one-child policy announced this week, through purely domestic means, Euromonitor says.

中国人的饮食习惯正在从大米蔬菜为主，迅速转变成以肉类为主。欧睿表示，如果单纯靠国内食品生产，中国很难养活13亿人口，而近期中国政府宣布结束一胎政策将加大这一困难。

China may be one way to save the western producers’ bacon, but advocates of organic and naturally-raised meat say producing better quality products is another.

中国可能成为拯救西方培根生产商的一条途径，但提倡有机和天然饲养肉类的人士表示，另一条途径是生产更优质的产品。

“The IARC study lumps all types of meat together — it assumes all beef is equal,” says Peter Melchett, policy director at the Soil Association. “But anyone can tell that a grass-reared Angus from the highlands of Scotland is a different animal from a grain-finished breed kept indoors most of its life.”

英国土壤协会(Soil Association)政策总监彼得蔠尔切特(Peter Melchett)表示：“IARC的研究将所有肉类混为一谈，它假定所有牛肉都是一样的。可是人人都分辨得出，苏格兰高地上放养吃草长大的安格斯牛，和圈养的基本吃谷物饲料长大的安格斯牛，完全是两种动物。”

The Great British breakfast was not going to disappear, he says. “But if people eat it once a week, it’s better for their health and the planet.”

梅尔切特表示，英式早餐不会消失，“但如果人们每周只吃一次，这对他们的健康和地球会更好。”

For Wendy, a Singapore tourist ordering the Full Monty breakfast in the Soho Café, it was a chance to try black pudding — a delicacy of cooked pig’s blood mixed usually with oatmeal. “It is famous and I want to try it; we don’t have this in our country,” she said.

在苏活区的这间咖啡馆里，新加坡游客温迪(Wendy)点了一份全套英式蒙蒂早餐(Full Monty)，她想借机尝一下黑布丁的味道，这是一道用猪血、通常还有燕麦制成的美味佳肴。温迪说：“这道菜很有名，所以我想尝一下，在我们国家是吃不到的。”