人民币能否跟上中国崛起步伐 State of the renminbi: many rivers to cross

The renminbi has come a long way in the past two decades. As recently as 1994, foreign visitors to China were still consigned to using special “foreign exchange certificates” rather than local currency. Only select stores and restaurants were permitted to accept them.

过去二十年，人民币取得了长足进展。就在1994年，外国游客来华还不得不使用特殊的“外汇券”，而非本地货币。只有指定的商店和餐厅才被允许接收外汇券。

Progress has been even swifter since July 2005, when the Chinese government announced it was removing the currency’s tight peg to the US dollar.

自2005年7月以来，人民币的发展进程进一步加快。当时中国政府宣布，解除人民币与美元的挂钩机制。

Since then the renminbi has appreciated more than 30 per cent against the dollar and the central bank has scaled back its intervention in the foreign exchange market. Rmb trade settlement is rising, with 20 per cent of China’s merchandise trade settled in its own currency in 2014.

从那之后，人民币对美元升值超过30%，中国央行也减少了对外汇市场的干预。人民币贸易结算逐渐增加，2014年中国20%的商品贸易以人民币结算。

Yet the recent boom-bust cycle in the Chinese stock market has renewed doubts among foreign investors about the wisdom of allocating large sections of their portfolios to renminbi assets.

不过，中国股市最近的牛熊转换循环使外国投资者再次怀疑，将投资组合中的一大部分配置为人民币资产是否明智。

While most investors can accept market volatility, the government’s heavy-handed response, which has included a ban on sales of equities by big stockholders and trading suspensions affecting thousands of listed companies, has reminded investors that investing in China comes with political as well as financial risks. The prospect of being trapped in an unwanted investment due to ad hoc administrative intervention is not an enticing one.

尽管多数投资者可以接受市场波动，但中国政府的粗暴反应——包括禁止大股东抛售股票，以及让上千家上市公司停牌——提醒了投资者，在中国投资既有金融风险，又有政治风险。由于临时的行政干预而让自己陷入不如意的投资之中，这种前景并不令人向往。

Yet the long-term trend is still towards increased foreign acceptance of the renminbi for both trade and investment.

不过，长期趋势仍然是，外国对人民币用于贸易和投资的接受度逐步提升。

Trade settlement has also facilitated the accumulation of renminbi outside China. Offshore renminbi centres, led by Hong Kong, have sprung up in financial areas such as Singapore, London and Frankfurt, allowing governments and a broad range of companies to issue renminbi bonds.

贸易结算还促进了人民币在中国境外的积累。以香港为首的离岸人民币中心在新加坡、伦敦及法兰克福等金融区逐渐兴起，使得多国政府及许多公司可以发行人民币债券。

Capital controls restricting portfolio investment into and out of China have also been on a loosening trend, notably through the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock connect last November. Even as the International Monetary Fund considers whether to endorse the renminbi as an official reserve currency, more than 60 central banks have already invested in renminbi assets, according to Standard Chartered.

限制组合投资进出中国的资本管制也已经进入逐渐放松的趋势，特别是借助去年11月“沪港通”的开通。渣打银行(Standard Chartered)表示，虽然国际货币基金组织(IMF)还在考虑是否将人民币纳入官方储备货币，但目前已经有超过60家央行投资了人民币资产。

In July, the central bank widened access to its vast domestic bond market for foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds and multilateral financial institutions such as the World Bank. These institutions no longer require licences to invest in Chinese interbank bonds, as well as money market instruments such as repurchase agreements. Total foreign participation will still, however, be subject to a quota.

7月，中国央行向外国央行、主权财富基金和世界银行(World Bank)等多边金融机构，扩大了进入中国国内庞大债券市场的通道。这些机构投资中国银行间债券、以及回购协议等货币市场工具时，不再需要特许证。然而，外国机构的整体参与仍然受制于配额。

Outbound foreign direct investment is now subject to greatly reduced regulation, as China encourages domestic companies to “go out”. Foreign mergers, acquisitions and greenfield investments by Chinese companies below a certain threshold, typically $100m, no longer require approval from the foreign exchange regulator.

随着中国鼓励国内企业“走出去”，如今中国国内企业对外直接投资面临的监管大大减少。中国企业在进行低于某一门槛——通常为1亿美元——的对外并购、收购以及绿地投资时，不再需要获得外汇监管机构的批准。

For inbound FDI, many sectors of the Chinese economy remain restricted to foreigners, or off limits entirely, but the approval process is easier than before for sectors where investment is allowed.

至于流入中国的外国直接投资，中国经济中很多领域对外资仍然存在限制、或者完全禁入，但是在允许外国投资的领域，审批流程已经比之前简化许多。

In addition, China is using the Shanghai free-trade zone to experiment with a “negative list” approach to foreign investment. Rather than stipulating specific areas as “encouraged”, “restricted”, or “forbidden” for foreigners, the negative list will specify those that are closed. Any sectors not on the list are assumed to be unrestricted.

此外，中国正利用上海自贸区来试验对外资列出“负面清单”的做法。负面清单将明确列出对外资封闭的领域，而不是规定“鼓励”、“限制”或“禁止”外资进入的特定领域。任何未出现在负面清单中的领域都被认为是不受限制的。

Despite such progress, by many measures the Rmb remains a middling player in the global currency markets. In terms of global foreign-exchange turnover, it still trails the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar.

尽管取得了这些进展，但是人民币在很多方面仍然是全球货币市场上的一个中流选手。从全球外汇交易额看，人民币仍然落后于墨西哥比索和加拿大元。

Interest and exchange rates, though freer than before, remain subject to government control. China has pledged to complete both interest-rate liberalisation and “basic” capital account convertibility by the end of 2015. But it is clear that Beijing’s definition of these terms still leaves plenty of room for government interference in the market.

人民币利率和汇率虽然比以往更加自由化，但仍然受到政府控制。中国承诺在2015年底前实现利率自由化以及资本项目“基本”可兑换。但是，很明显北京方面对这些术语的定义，仍然给政府干预市场留有大量空间。

The market also lacks derivatives that would allow investors to hedge risk or make bearish bets. The interest-rate swaps market is relatively liquid, but more sophisticated tools such as cross-currency swaps remain thinly traded. Equity derivatives are still in their infancy, with futures and options only available on broad indexes, not individual shares.

中国市场还缺乏让投资者可以对冲风险或做空的衍生品。利率掉期市场相对有流动性，但是诸如货币掉期等更加复杂的衍生品的交易量仍然很低。股票衍生品仍然处于萌芽阶段，期货和期权仅针对整体指数，而非个股。

Capital controls still severely restrict investor access to China’s onshore bond market. The increased access that central banks now enjoy does not extend to private-sector asset managers, who can only obtain access to the onshore market through the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor Programme (QFII) or its renminbi-denominated cousin, RQFII. Even once a QFII license is obtained, each asset manager is subject to a separate quota from the foreign exchange regulator. And for individuals, the domestic bond market remains completely off limits.

资本管制仍然严格限制着投资者进入中国境内债券市场的通道。外国央行如今享受的日益开放的投资通道，并未延伸至私人部门资产管理公司，后者只能通过合格境外机构投资者(QFII)或者与之类似的人民币合格境外机构投资者(RQFII)计划，获得进入中国境内市场的通道。即便一朝获得QFII资格，每家资产管理公司仍受制于外汇监管机构设置的单独的配额。至于个人投资者，中国境内债券市场仍然完全属于禁区。

For the bond market, access is easier. Foreign investors buying into the Chinese stock market using the stock connect do not need a licence, but many stocks remain off limits and quotas limit daily flows and overall investments. Moreover, the Chinese stock market’s recent bull run, followed by its sudden downward correction, has made many foreign investors wary of participating, even where regulations allow it.

对于股票市场来说，进入相对容易。利用沪港通投资于中国股市的外国投资者不需要许可证，但是很多股票仍然禁止他们买卖，而且配额限制着每日资金流以及整体投资。另外，中国股市最近的暴涨以及随后的骤跌，令很多外国投资者对入市十分谨慎，即便监管允许进入。

Global index provider MSCI recently declined to add Chinese onshore stocks, known as A shares, to its benchmark emerging market indexes. Though they cited technical concerns about the ownership status of shares bought through the stock connect programme, many observers privately believe that MSCI’s decision was also motivated by investor concerns about the stock market’s reputation as a casino.

全球主要指数提供商MSCI明晟，最近决定暂不将中国内地股市（即A股）纳入其新兴市场基准指数。尽管他们声称是因为技术上的担忧，即通过沪港通购买的股票的所有权状态，但很多观察人士私下认为，投资者对A股如赌场的担忧也促成了MSCI的决定。

The addition of A shares to the indices would have triggered billions in fund inflows via funds that passively track them. Even before the share crash that began in late June, such a prospect made many of MSCI’s fund manager clients nervous.

将A股纳入MSCI指数，将通过被动追踪这些指数的基金引发数十亿美元的资金流入。即使是在始于6月中旬的A股暴跌前，这种前景也让很多MSCI的基金管理公司客户感到紧张。

As China proceeds cautiously but inexorably with financial reform, the importance of the renminbi is bound to increase. But whether the currency will ever take on an importance commensurate with China’s status as the world’s largest economy (at purchasing power parity) is still an open question.

随着中国谨慎而又坚定地推进金融改革，人民币的重要性势必会增加。但是，人民币是否会取得与中国作为世界最大经济体（按购买力平价计算）的地位相称的重要性，仍然是一个尚无定论的问题。