广东的偿债能力与房地产市场休戚相关

China's southern province of Guangdong was the first beneficiary of Beijing's policy of opening up the economy to the outside world, becoming an export powerhouse and a magnet for foreign investment. It was also among the first local governments given a chance to issue bonds on its own -- without Beijing holding its hand -- as part of the central government's plan to expand the financing channels of better-managed provinces and cities.

地处中国南方的广东省是中国改革开放政策的首个受益者，并逐渐成为一个重要的出口基地和吸引外商投资的磁石。广东也是首批获准在不依靠中央的情况下自主发债的地方政府之一，这是中央为治理较好的省市扩大融资渠道的方案之一。

But a credit rating report on Guangdong shows that even this relatively well-to-do province is heavily dependent on land and property sales, and that could make it vulnerable to financial stress in the current real-estate market downturn.

但一份对广东的信用评级报告显示，尽管是个相对富裕的省份，广东也严重依赖土地出让和房地产销售，在当前房地产市场低迷的情况下，可能很容易面临金融压力。

The credit report, issued by Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., was released publicly on Tuesday thanks to the requirement that local governments need to make their financial position transparent before they can sell bonds. The financial data show that in 2012 -- the most recent year for which full figures are available -- more than half of the province's revenue came from land sales. Moreover, that relatively high dependence was actually below the national average.

由于有关规定要求地方政府在发行债券前必须公示地方财政状况，上海新世纪资信评估投资服务有限公司(Shanghai Brilliance Credit Rating & Investors Service Co., 简称：上海新世纪)的这份信用评级报告在周二得以公开发布。财政数据显示，2012年（有完整数据可供参考的最近年份）广东省财政收入的一半以上来自土地出让；不过，这种较高的依赖程度实际上低于全国平均水平。

Most local governments still rely on the central government to issue debt on their behalf. But Guangdong is one of the privileged few that can issue bonds directly, and it plans to sell 14.8 billion yuan ($2.4 billion) worth of debt this year.

目前，中国的多数地方政府仍依靠中央代为发行债券。但广东是享有直接发行地方债特权的为数不多的地方政府之一。广东省计划今年发行价值人民币148亿元的债券。

Shanghai Briliance gave Guangdong an overall rating of AAA, the highest level possible, reflecting what it said was the province's stable economic and fiscal conditions.

上海新世纪将广东省的总体信用评级定为AAA，这是评级体系中的最高等级，理由是广东省的经济和财政状况稳定。

Guangdong has become a center of light industry, has a healthy service sector and boasts relatively high incomes. That gives it a comparatively diversified income stream -- at least compared to other parts of the country.

广东已成为中国的轻工业中心，拥有健全的服务业，而且收入水平较高。这为广东提供了相当多元化的收入来源，至少相对于国内其他地区而言。

But there are plenty of concerns of potential repayment problems, as Shanghai Brilliance made clear. The provincial government is still dependent on land sales for income and it has made heavy investments in property as the real-estate market is heading south.

但上海新世纪明确指出，广东的潜在还款问题也颇令人担忧。眼下在房地产市场下滑之际，广东省政府仍依靠土地出让获取财政收入，而且已对房地产进行了大量投资。

In good times, a red-hot property market has boosted the provincial government's income and enabled higher spending levels, the rating firm said.

新世纪评级称，当房地产行业繁荣时，广东省的政府性基金收入和支出均相应有所增长。

In 2013, when home sales were up 40%, Guangdong's government revenue surged 62% over the previous year while spending climbed 55%, the rating firm said. About 35% of the province's fixed-asset investment went to the property market in 2013, compared with 27% in the manufacturing sector.

该评级机构称，2013年，广东省商品房销售额增长40%，该省的政府性基金收入和支出分别同比增长62%和55%。2013年，该省大约35%的固定资产投资进入了房地产市场，相比之下，进入制造业的比重为27%。

That compares with real-estate taking 25% of total fixed-asset investment for all of China last year, according to J.P. Morgan economist Zhu Haibin.

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)经济学家朱海滨称，去年中国房地产业的投资占全国固定资产投资总额的比例为25%。

With the property market cooling as a result of increased supply and weaker demand amid an economic slowdown, the provincial government could see trouble down the road.

由于在经济增速下降的背景下，房地产市场供应增加，同时需求下降，中国的房地产市场出现降温，这也可能在未来给广东省政府带来麻烦。

'Guangzhou's economic growth has a definite reliance on the property market,' the rating company said. 'Fluctuations in the property and land markets will affect government income.'

新世纪评级称，广东省经济增长对房地产市场具有一定的依赖性，并表示，该省房地产市场和土地市场将对该省政府性基金收入将产生一定影响。

The average price of new homes in 70 Chinese cities declined in May from April, the first such drop in two years, as property developers cut prices to offset sluggish demand and a supply glut.

中国70个大中城市5月份的新建住宅平均房价环比下降，为两年来的首次环比下降，这主要是由于在需求低迷及供应过剩情况下，房地产开发商纷纷降价促销。

Like the rest of the country, the province's property market is struggling this year. Average new home prices in Guangzhou, the provincial capital, were unchanged in May from April, but for Shenzhen, China's manufacturing hub, prices were down 0.2% month-on-month.

与中国其他地区一样，广东省的房地产市场今年也遭遇困境。广州5月份的新建住宅均价较4月份持平，但深圳当月的新建住宅均价较4月份下降0.2%。

Thanks to the bond sales, investors are getting a peek at local-level financial records, which normally would be hidden from the public.

投资者借地方政府发债的机会得以查看地方政府的财政状况，通常情况下地方财政状况不会公开。

It's hard to say whether the investing public will snap up the Guangdong bonds -- or shy away due to worries over the province's ability to repay. But the credit report makes clear that the health of the property sector is closely tied to the health of Guangdong's finances. And if one of the better managed provinces is facing repayment risk -- the risk for other areas is certainly even greater.

目前还很难说投资者是会购买广东省的政府债，还是会因为担心该省的偿还能力而回避该省的地方债。但这份报告清楚地表明，广东省的财政状况与房地产市场的健康状况休戚相关。如果连财政状况管理相对较好的一个省份都面临偿付风险，中国其他地区的偿付风险无疑就更大了。