伦敦高端房地产市场有所复苏

House price cuts and the fall in the value of the pound are breathing life back into the prime London property market, with the number of homes under offer at its highest since before the EU referendum.

房价下跌以及英镑走软正使伦敦高端房地产市场恢复生机，目前挂牌出售的房产数量处于退欧公投以来的最高水平。

After slumping in 2016 to levels less than half of those the previous year, the number of offers in prime districts such as Chelsea and Belgravia rose in January to just 4.5 per cent below the level a year ago, according to LonRes, a data firm.

数据研究公司LonRes表示，在2016年下滑至不足前一年一半的水平后，1月份切尔西(Chelsea)和贝尔格拉维亚(Belgravia)等高端区域的房屋挂牌数量增至仅比一年前低4.5%的水平。

“This is one indicator of the market over the next few months,” said Marcus Dixon, head of research at LonRes. “People who are serious about selling have realised they need to be more competitive with their pricing, and to entertain lower offers.

“这是未来数月市场走向的风向标，”LonRes研究主管马库斯?狄克逊(Marcus Dixon)表示，“确实想出售房产的人意识到，他们需要在价格上更具竞争力，并且接受更低的报价。”

“There is also the currency play, particularly at the upper end. Sterling has fallen by 16 per cent since the Brexit vote on June 23. Combining these factors could lead to a total discount of 30 to 40 per cent for buyers compared with the top of the market”, said Mr Dixon.

“其中还有汇率的作用，特别是在高端市场。自6月23日英国退欧公投以来，英镑汇率已经下跌了16%。这些因素加在一起，可能导致价格与市场最高水平相比降低了30%至40%，”狄克逊表示。

Properties in leafy central London areas that typically cost millions of pounds are now selling at an average discount of 10.8 per cent to the asking price, according to LonRes. Asking prices underwent a wave of discounting after the EU referendum.

据LonRes称，在绿树成荫的伦敦市中心，售价往往达数百万英镑的房产如今的售价平均比要价低10.8%。在英国退欧公投后，要价已经经历了一轮下调。

About half of buyers in these areas are from overseas, meaning those converting their funds from other major currencies will also benefit from sterling’s decline since the vote.

该区域的买家中约有一半来自海外，这意味着把资金从其他主要货币兑换为英镑的买家还将受益于自退欧公投以来的英镑下滑。

“It’s an interesting market. Turnover is right down and there’s not much around [for sale], so with people trying to buy, there is some upward pressure on prices,” said Charlie Ellingworth, founder of the buying agency Property Vision.

“这是个有意思的市场。成交量直线下降，没有多少房产（待售），因此在有人想买房的情况下，价格存在一些上行压力，”买方中介Property Vision的创始人查利?埃林沃思(Charlie Ellingworth)表示。

“Prices are firming up, although they are still considerably off since the top of the market. Where [a home] is good, there is competition — if something looks like a bargain, people will go for it.”

“价格正在企稳回升，尽管与市场最高点仍然相距甚远。如果（房子）很好，就会有人争着买——如果看起来像是物美价廉的交易，人们会争先恐后。”

London’s high-end property market has been declining for two years, partly thanks to changes to stamp duty that first increased the tax on expensive homes and then added an extra 3 per cent for second and additional properties. Prices had previously seen three years of strong growth.

近两年，伦敦的高端房地产市场处于下滑之中，这部分是由于印花税的变化——先是对豪宅提高税率、之后对二套及以上的房产再加征3%的税。此前伦敦房地产市场价格经历了三年的强势增长。

Transaction levels are now 17 per cent below those a year ago, with prices per square foot some 4 per cent lower, LonRes said. But the transaction figures a year ago partly reflect a rush to buy ahead of the latest stamp duty changes.

LonRes表示，如今的交易水平较一年前减少了17%，每平方英尺的价格降低了4%左右。但一年前的交易数据部分反映了在最新印花税调整前的那轮购房潮。

That still leaves prices for the most expensive postcodes — within Mayfair, Kensington, Chelsea, Belgravia and Knightsbridge — at an average of ￡2.1m for flats and ￡5.6m for houses.

尽管如此，伦敦房价最昂贵的地区——梅费尔区(Mayfair)、肯辛顿(Kensington)、切尔西、贝尔格拉维亚和骑士桥(Knightsbridge)——平均每套公寓的价格仍然处于210万英镑，平均每套独栋住宅的价格为560万英镑。

Agents’ forecasts for prime prices remain subdued. Savills, for example, predicts two years of flat prices in 2017 and 2018, with higher stamp duty rates and uncertainty over Brexit preventing growth. “If there is a potential revival, it will be in transaction volumes rather than in prices,” said Mr Dixon.

房地产中介预计，高端房产价格仍将受到抑制。例如，第一太平戴维斯(Savills)预计，由于印花税提高以及英国退欧的不确定性抑制增长，2017年和2018年的价格将走平。“如果有可能复苏的话，将是交易量复苏、而非价格回升，”狄克逊表示。

The land market has also been adjusting: prices for prime central London development land dropped by 11.5 per cent in 2016, according to Knight Frank.

土地市场也正处于调整之中：莱坊(Knight Frank)数据显示，2016年伦敦中心高端开发用地的价格下跌11.5%。

Other unknowns facing the market include the impact of capital controls in China intended to limit investment in overseas real estate. Charles McDowell, a Knightsbridge agent, said the controls were “without doubt an issue and a concern for Chinese buyers of London property and it remains to see whether the negative impact continues through the next few months”.

伦敦房地产市场面临的其他未知因素包括，为了限制海外房地产投资的中国资本管控的影响。位于骑士桥区的房地产中介查尔斯麦克道尔(Charles McDowell)表示，资本管控“无疑是个问题，是购买伦敦房产的中国买家所关注的问题，未来数月负面影响是否会持续仍有待观察”。