中国玉米会重蹈大豆的覆辙吗

When it comes to corn imports, the big worry for Chinese leaders lies in the history of another crop: soybeans.

一谈到玉米进口，中国领导人难免会想起大豆的历史教训。

The thinking is: 'We cannot have a situation like it was with soybeans, where we now heavily rely on imports,' Huang Dafang, the director of the Biotechnology Research Institute of Beijing's influential Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told reporters Thursday.

中国农业科学院(Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences)生物技术研究所所长黄大昉周四对记者说，不能让玉米像大豆那样严重依赖进口，不能重蹈大豆的覆辙。

Told from some quarters, the story of the Chinese soybean is a lesson in a strategic error.

从某些方面讲，中国大豆政策是战略上的失误。

Until the early years of the 21st century, China mostly grew its own soybeans. The oilseed -- a key ingredient for many of Asia's most popular foods, including soy sauce -- was once counted among the crops that contributed to Beijing's totemic goal of having domestic grains feed at least 95% of its people's consumption. The government hasn't abandoned this self-sufficiency target, but it has dropped soybeans from the count, Mr. Huang said.

直到本世纪头几年，中国大豆基本上还是自给。作为一种油料作物，大豆是亚洲许多最受欢迎的食品和调味品（例如酱油）的重要原料。在中国划定的最低粮食自给率95%的目标中，大豆也曾被列入自给自足的计划，但黄大昉说，政府虽然没有放弃粮食自给率目标，但已经不再把大豆算入其中。

That's because Beijing bowed to rising demand and opened its gates to soybean imports as part of its accession to the World Trade Organization. By 2004, soybean imports overtook domestic output. Today, China is the world's largest soybean importer, importing 63.4 million metric tons last year -- about a third came from the U.S. -- while producing just 13 million tons for itself.

之所以会这样，一方面是因为需求攀升，一方面也是因为开放大豆进口是中国加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)的一项承诺。到2004年，中国大豆进口量已超过国内产量。中国目前是全球最大的大豆进口国，去年进口量达到6,340万吨（约三分之一进口自美国），国内产量仅为1,300万吨。

What's worrying people who think about China's strategic independence: China's corn market is showing signs of going the way of the soybean.

关注中国战略独立性的人担心，中国的玉米市场有重蹈大豆覆辙的迹象。

Until 2010, China was a net exporter of corn. It turned net importer that year, with growth rates rising explosively. The U.S. accounts for more than 90% of its supply.

2010年，中国从过去的玉米净出口国变成净进口国，进口量呈爆炸式增长。在中国进口的玉米中90%以上来自美国。

China is now at a juncture where the question is whether it will continue to embrace rising volumes of corn imports or aggressively grow its home turf. Last year, corn imports fell 37% --though the country stayed a net importer amid record-high monthly shipments.

中国正处于十字路口，是继续大规模进口玉米还是努力增加国内产量，需要中国做出抉择。去年中国玉米进口量下降37%，但由于月度进口量创下纪录，中国仍是玉米净进口国。

Part of the reduction was due to a strong domestic harvest. But China in December also made headlines by turning away 545,000 tons of U.S. corn, an unprecedented volume of rejections, because the shipments contained MIR-162, a genetically modified strain that China hasn't approved.

去年中国玉米进口量的下降一定程度上与国内玉米丰?有关。但去年12月份中国退回54.5万吨美国玉米事件引发了广泛关注，这次退回的玉米数量前所未有，退货理由是玉米中含有中国尚未批准的转基因成分MIR-162。

On Thursday, Mr. Huang said the issue turned purely on compliance with the letter of the law, not on a question over the strain's health standards. 'Based on what I know, [the rejection] was not a safety issue, but a procedural matter of Chinese law and requirements,' he said.

黄大昉周四说，退货完全是为遵守相关法规，与MIR-162健康标准无关。他说，据他所知，退货不是因为安全问题，而是程序问题。

But the rejection drew the spotlight to China's rising need for food, tempered by fear among wide sections of the populace over GMO food imports. Beijing allows GMO corn imports for processing as animal feed but not for human consumption.

中国国内对进口转基因食品的安全性普遍存在质疑，拒收玉米事件将中国食品需求不断上升问题置于聚光灯下。中国政府允许进口转基因玉米用于动物饲料加工，但不允许用于人类食用。

The government has so far held back from giving the green light for domestic GMO corn to be commercially grown and distributed for human consumption. There is still no sign that the agriculture ministry is prepared to quickly pave the way for high-yield homegrown GMO maize.

中国尚未批准在国内进行转基因玉米的商业化种植和将转基因玉米用于人类食用。目前没有迹象表明农业部会在短期内出台政策为国内种植高产转基因玉米铺路。

Xu Haibin, a director at the China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment, said Thursday the government is still mulling the move. Mr. Huang said corn will most likely be the next GMO crop approved for commercial distribution in China, after cotton and papaya, but 'the timeline is still not very clear.'

国家食品安全风险评估中心(China National Center for Food Safety Risk Assessment)的徐海斌周四表示，政府还在考虑这件事。黄大昉说，玉米很可能成为棉花和番木瓜之后下一个被批准商业化种植的转基因作物，但时间不是很明确。