亚洲力量平衡变化 加剧地区领土争端

The late-summer flare-up in territorial tensions between Japan and three neighbors has been stoked by a shift in the balance of power in Northeast Asia, as well as leadership changes or contests in all four countries that complicate the impact of domestic politics on foreign policies.

日本与三个邻国间的领土争端在今年夏末升温，并因东北亚地区力量平衡的变化以及四国领导层换届和权力争夺而愈演愈烈。这四个国家的领导层换届和权力争夺加大了国内政治形势对外交政策的影响。

The passions recently inflamed in Japan, China, South Korea, and Russia over the disputed areas are striking in part because of the seeming insignificance of the stakes: largely uninhabited islands with few natural resources, decent fishing rights and mostly modest strategic value.

日本、中国、韩国和俄罗斯国内最近因领土争端而高涨的情绪令人震惊，部分原因在于所争之物似乎无关紧要：除了捕鱼权，这些争议岛屿基本上无人居住，几乎没有自然资源，而且战略价值也不是很大。

But the spats aren't just about the islands. They are rooted in long, complex histories between Japan and its neighbors, particularly an ill-fated imperialistic expansion in the first half of the previous century, and Tokyo's inability to resolve fully lingering tensions in the following decades of peace. Now the still-simmering disagreements appear to have become opportunities for those nations to test the resolve of a Japan seen weakening economically and politically.

但是，这些国家的争议不只关乎岛屿。争议源自于日本与其邻国漫长而复杂的历史，尤其是日本上世纪上半叶十恶不赦的军国主义扩张行为，在接下来几十年的和平时期里，日本政府未能彻底消除日本与这些国家之间遗留的紧张关系。如今，这些仍在发酵的争议似乎为这些国家提供了试探日本决心的机会。在外界看来，如今的日本无论是经济上还是政治上都在每况愈下。

'The shift in power balance resulting from China's rise is pushing Japan into a defensive position,' said Makoto Iokibe, former president of the National Defense Academy of Japan. 'Countries that engage in power politics are taking advantage of the situation, confident that they can push further and still get away with it.'

日本防卫大学校(National Defense Academy of Japan)前任校长五百旗头真(Makoto Iokibe)说，中国崛起导致的力量平衡的转变正将日本推向防御姿态。卷入强权政治的国家正在利用这一形势，他们自信可以在推波助澜之后全身而退。

In just in a matter of days this month, Tokyo found itself grappling with new tensions on three fronts. The Aug. 15 landing of Chinese activists on one of the contested islands-called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in Chinese-was countered by a similar landing by a group of Japanese nationalists a few days later. Tokyo and Seoul have been caught in an escalating tit-for-tat since early August when South Korean President Lee Myung-bak visited Korea-controlled islets known as Dokdo in the Koreas and Takeshima in Japan; they are also known as the Liancourt Rocks. Russia, meanwhile, threatened to send naval ships to Moscow-controlled islands north of Japan that Tokyo has long claimed. That came a few weeks after Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev visited the territory called the Kurils in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan.

本月，在短短几天时间，东京发现自己同时陷入了与三个国家的争议之中。8月15日，中国活动人士登上日中争议岛屿。这些岛屿在日本被称作尖阁列岛(Senkaku)，在中国被称作钓鱼岛。几天后，一组日本民族主义者以同样的方式登岛。自8月初韩国总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)登上了由韩国控制的日韩争议岛屿之后，日本和韩国的口水战日益升级。这些岛屿在韩国被称作独岛(Dokdo)，在日本被称作竹岛(Takeshima)，在其他一些国家也被称作利扬库尔岩(Liancourt Rocks)。同时，俄罗斯威胁称，将派海军军舰到日本以北由俄方控制的日俄争议岛屿。日本长期以来一直声称对该岛拥有主权。几周之前,俄罗斯总理梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)登上了这些岛屿。这些岛屿在俄罗斯被称作南千岛群岛(Kurils)，在日本被称作北方四岛(Northern Territories)。

On Thursday, the spat between Japan and South Korea turned nastier. In a highly contentious diplomatic gesture, Seoul tried to send back a letter of protest that Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda had written to Mr. Lee. The attempt failed as security guards at Tokyo's Foreign Ministry refused to let cars carrying South Korean diplomats enter its grounds. The South Korean government later returned the letter by registered mail. At a parliament session, Mr. Noda said Japan has demanded Mr. Lee apologize for remarks deemed offensive to the Japanese emperor.

周四，日本和韩国的争执变得越发严重。韩国方面试图退回日本首相野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)写给李明博的一封抗议信，这种做法在外交上非常具有争议。由于日本外务省的安保人员拒绝让韩国外交官的车辆进入，韩国此举未能成功。韩国政府后来以挂号信的方式退回了这封信。野田佳彦在一次国会会议上说，日本已经要求李明博为被指冒犯了日本天皇的言论道歉。

Government officials and analysts say Japan and South Korea will be careful not to let the political tensions damage their significant bilateral economic ties. Still, worrying signs are emerging. Anti-Japan protesters in South Korea have called for a boycott of Japanese products. Japan has cancelled a bilateral meeting of finance ministers this month and threatened to shelve the expansion of a foreign-exchange swap deal agreed to last year as a contingency measure to cope with a potential financial crisis. Some in Japan are concerned that Seoul may try to shut Japan out of trade talks with China that had been intended to lead to a three-way pact.

政府官员和分析人士说，日韩双方都会小心行事，争取不让政治上的紧张局势破坏重要的双边经济关系。但令人担忧的迹象还是出现了。韩国的反日示威者呼吁国人抵制日本商品，日本则取消了原定于本月举行的一场日韩双边财长会议，并威胁说可能不再延长日韩两国去年达成的一项货币互换协议。这项协议原本是作为一种应急措施，以应对可能发生的金融危机。日本也有人担心首尔方面可能试图阻止日本参加中日韩之间旨在达成一项三方协议的贸易会谈。

The concern not to let the spat escalate is felt on both sides. 'We have never tried to link issues of history with other important issues for the future of our countries,' one of Mr. Lee's aides said.

日韩双方都已经感到不能让口角进一步升级。李明博的一位幕僚说，我们从来没有试图把历史问题与事关两国未来的其它重要问题联系在一起。

Some experts also see the tiffs being stoked by new questions about the strength of the half-century-old U.S.-Japan military alliance. While the two governments are taking many steps to deepen defense ties, rising grass-roots opposition in Japan to Marine bases and the deployment of U.S. military aircraft has complicated cooperation efforts.

一些专家同时认为，外界对持续了半个世纪之久的美日军事同盟的实力产生新的质疑也令日本和邻国之间发生的口角进一步升级。虽然美日两国政府都采取了许多措施来深化两国间的防务联系，但日本民间日益反对美国在日本设立海军基地部署美军战机也令两国间的合作努力进一步复杂化。

'The U.S.-Japan alliance remains strong, but it has weakened a bit─in the parlance of S&P, it has been downgraded and is not triple-A anymore,' said Ryozo Kato, a retired diplomat who served for seven years as Japan's ambassador to the U.S. 'Once we show signs of weakness in the alliance, that would tempt China, Russia, and Korea.'

曾担任七年日本驻美大使的退休外交官加藤良三(Ryozo Kato)说，美日同盟仍然强大，但实力略有削弱；套用标准普尔的评级标准，可以说美日同盟的“实力评级”遭降级，已经不再是AAA了，一旦美日同盟表现出被削弱的迹象，中国、俄罗斯和韩国可能会有所动作。

The growing animosities in the region also create new challenges for the U.S., as it shifts its focus to Asia to counter China's dramatic rise. In particular, the increasingly raucous row between Tokyo and Seoul could undermine Washington's efforts to enlist the unified help of its two closest allies in deterring aggressive action by Beijing.

随着美国将重心转移至亚洲以应对中国的迅速崛起，这一地区国家间日益增长的敌意也给美国带来了新的挑战。美国原本打算在日韩这两个最亲密盟友的帮助下牵制北京的激进举动，但日韩间日益严重的分歧可能令美国的如意算盘落空。

In their report on the U.S.-Japan alliance published this month, Richard Armitage, a former U.S. deputy secretary of state, and Joseph Nye, a former assistant secretary of defense, urged Tokyo and Seoul to 'resist the temptation to resurrect deep historical differences and to utilize nationalist sentiments for domestic political purposes.' The called strong U.S.-Japan-South Korea relations 'absolutely critical to the alliance and the regional stability and prosperity.'

美国前副国务卿阿米蒂奇(Richard Armitage)和前国防部助理部长约瑟夫•奈(Joseph Nye)在本月发表的一份讨论美日同盟的报告中呼吁日本和韩国抵制诱惑，不要重新搅动两国间在历史方面由来已久的巨大差异，不要利用民族主义情绪为各自的国内政治服务。报告认为，美日韩之间牢固的关系对于三国同盟以及该地区的稳定和繁荣至关重要。

Fueling the contentions is rising nationalism sweeping the region at a time when countries jockey for leadership positions in the new regional order, while fighting the pressure of global economic competition that has left many citizens falling behind. The resulting anxiety carries particular political weight this year across the region. China faces a leadership transition. Russia had a presidential election this year, and South Korea has one at year's end. In Japan, Mr. Noda faces mounting pressure to call a snap election in coming months-a contest he is seen as likely to lose unless he can quickly seize on a winning political issue.

眼下，为了在新区域秩序中争取领导地位，有关国家可谓不遗余力，而席卷该地区的民族主义浪潮则令相关国家间的分歧进一步加深。同时，这些国家还在对抗全球经济竞争的压力，这场竞争已经令该地区不少国家落后。从整个地区来看，因此产生的焦虑在政治上有着很重要的意义。中国正面临着高层领导换届，俄罗斯今年已经举行过总统选举，韩国在今年年末将举行总统大选。在日本，首相野田佳彦面临着越来越大的压力，要求他在未来数月提前举行选举的声音越来越多。除非他能迅速抓住一个能给他带来胜利的政治问题，否则外界认为他可能在竞争中落败。

Japan's standoff with China centers around a chain of East China Sea Islands. Japan gained control of them at the end of its 1894-95 war with China, but China and Taiwan also claim sovereignty, citing historic association with the islands. The dispute has intensified in recent years with China's rapid naval expansion.

日本与中国的对峙主要围绕东中国海(East China Sea, 中国称东海)上的一系列小岛展开。日本在1894年至1895年的战争结束后获得了对这些小岛的控制权。但中国大陆和台湾地区也以与这些小岛的历史联系为由，宣称对这些小拥有主权。随着中国的海军实力迅速提升，中日两国间的争端近年来愈演愈烈。

Chinese civilian leaders are wary of appearing weak on territorial issues with Tokyo that have an intense resonance with the public, especially as the sensitive once-a-decade leadership change is expected to begin in Beijing in coming months. While Japan and China are increasingly entwined economically and Japanese pop culture is popular among Chinese youths, long-standing mistrust remains, rooted in Japan's brutal occupation of large parts of China during World War II.

中国文职领导人小心翼翼地避免在引发公众强烈反响的中日领土问题上表现得软弱，特别是在预计未来几个月内北京将开始10年一次的领导人换届这一敏感时刻。尽管中日在经济上日益密不可分，且日本流行文化在中国年轻人中间也颇受欢迎，但双方间久已存在的不信任依然难以消除，这种不信任源于二战期间日军对中国大片国土的残酷占领。

In response to Japan's expulsion this month of the Chinese activists who landed on the Senkaku, violent anti-Japanese protests erupted in a number of Chinese cities over the weekend. Photos posted online showed protesters smashing Japanese-brand cars. Analysts and diplomats said the anti-Japanese protests-China's worst since October 2010-underscored how intense public nationalism threaten leaders' control if they are perceived by the public as weak. In one of the most striking images, a mob of young men in Shenzhen overturned a Japanese-brand police car as officers stood helplessly by.

日本本月驱逐了登上钓鱼岛的中国活动人士，中国对此的反应是，多个城市上周末爆发了激烈的反日抗议活动。此次反日抗议活动是2010年10月以来最严重的一次。网上发布的照片显示，抗议者砸了日本品牌的汽车。分析人士和外交人士说，反日抗议活动凸显出，如果领导人在民众眼里显得软弱，民众强烈的民族主义情绪将威胁到领导人对局面的掌控。一张非常令人震惊的图片显示，深圳的一群年轻人掀翻了一辆日本品牌的警车，警察则无能为力地站在一旁。

Japan's dispute with South Korea centers around the Liancourt Rocks, a set of islets halfway between the two countries, named after a French whaling ship that plied those waters in the 1840s. The islets have appeared on maps in both countries going back to the 1600s. Japan claimed control of them in 1905, shortly before its 1910 colonization of the Korean peninsula.

日韩争端的焦点是利扬库尔岩(Liancourt Rocks)。这组日本称“竹岛”、韩国称“独岛”的岛屿位于日韩两国之间，利扬库尔岩这个名字来源于19世纪40年代在此作业的一艘法国捕鲸船。早在17世纪初，独岛就已经出现在日韩两国的地图上。1905年，日本声称对独岛拥有主权。之后不久，日本在1910年开始了对朝鲜半岛的殖民统治。

Since taking office in 2008, Mr. Lee has endured criticism that he treats South Korea's historical disputes with Japan too lightly. His Aug. 10 visit to the islets came after a public outcry in June over historical issues between the two countries forced his office to scrap a deal with Japan that provided a working framework for sharing military secrets.

自2008年就任韩国总统以来，李明博一直饱受批评，外界批评他不够重视日韩历史争端问题。今年6月，韩国公众对日韩历史问题的不满迫使政府取消了与日本的一项协议，之后不久李明博于8月10日视察了独岛。取消的协议原本将为日韩分享军事秘密提供工作框架。

Some analysts in the two countries believe that Mr. Lee's decision to visit the islets was aimed at countering low approval ratings, shifting attention from scandals-and showing that he still holds agenda-setting power even though he has just six months left in office before the December presidential election. In a recent speech, Mr. Lee vowed to keep working 'until the last day of my term in office.'

日韩两国的一些分析人士认为，李明博视察独岛的决定旨在提高其低迷的支持率，转移公众对各种丑闻的注意，同时希望表明，尽管他的总统任期只剩下12月份举行总统选举之前的这六个月时间，但政府的工作安排依然由他说了算。李明博近日在一次讲话中承诺，他将坚持不懈地工作，直至任期的最后一天。

Japan claims the four Kuril Islands controlled by Russia and located off Hokkaido based on the 1855 Treaty of Shimoda, the first Russo-Japanese agreement addressing the area. Moscow argues that the islands became part of the Soviet Union following Japan's World War II defeat.

日本声称，根据日俄1855年签署的《下田条约》(Treaty of Shimoda，即《日俄和亲通好条约》)，北方四岛是日本领土。《下田条约》是日俄之间有关北方四岛的首份协议。北方四岛位于北海道附近，目前在俄罗斯的控制中。莫斯科方面称，二战日本战败后，这些岛屿就成了苏联的一部分。

Some trace Russia's recent visible reminders of its control over the islands to the country's changing image of itself, and efforts by President Vladimir Putin to reassert Moscow's global influence.

一些人认为，俄罗斯最近明确提出对北方四岛的领土主张，其根源在于该国正努力改变自己在外界眼中的形像，以及俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)重申莫斯科全球影响力的举措。

Moscow has been especially worried about its image in Asia, where China's burgeoning economy and growing cities along the Russian-Chinese border have eclipsed Russia's own deteriorating economy and dwindling population. Mr. Medvedev's first visit to the Kurils in 2010 was choreographed to show that 'the country's leadership takes care of even its remotest regions,' wrote Fyodor Lyukanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine.

莫斯科一直特别担心在亚洲的形像。相比中国蓬勃发展的经济以及中俄边境附近日益扩大的中国城市，俄罗斯国内不断恶化的经济和日益减少的人口显得相形见绌。《全球事务中的俄罗斯》杂志(Russia in Global Affairs)的主编柳卡诺夫(Fyodor Lyukanov)写道，2010年，梅德韦杰夫首次视察北方四岛，意在显示俄罗斯领导层就连最偏远的地区也照顾到了。