日本第二季经济增长逊于预期

Japan's economy grew at an annualised 1.4 per cent in the second quarter against analysts' expectations of a 2.3 per cent rise, as weak exports and softer consumer spending offset strong public investment in the tsunami-stricken region of Tohoku.

日本经济第二季度经年化的增速为1.4%，低于分析师预测的2.3%。出口和消费者支出转弱，抵消了受海啸影响的东北地区公共投资的强劲增长。

The data represented a sharp drop from the first quarter, in which growth was an annualised 5.5 per cent as Japanese consumers shook off their post-tsunami restraint.

第二季度数据较第一季度出现了显著下滑，日本第一季度经年化的经济增长率为5.5%，消费者结束了海啸后的克制。

Analysts said the world's third-largest economy had struggled to adjust to a strengthening yen and faltering growth in key export partners such as China and the EU. During the quarter the yen gained 4 per cent against the US dollar. A surplus of imports over exports trimmed 0.1 percentage points from overall output.

分析师表示，全球第三大经济体近期在艰难适应日圆升值以及中国和欧盟等主要出口伙伴经济增长放缓。第二季度日圆兑美元汇率升值4%。进口大于出口的贸易逆差导致日本国内总产出下降0.1百分点。

"The outlook for external demand is definitely deteriorating," said Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorganin Tokyo, noting "nearly all trade and manufacturing activity data for July are downbeat in [Japan's] Asian neighbours".

摩根大通(JPMorgan)驻东京的高级经济学家正道安达(Masamichi Adachi)表示："外部需求前景无疑趋于恶化，对于日本在亚洲的邻国而言，7月份几乎所有贸易和制造活动相关数据都表现悲观。"

Motohisa Furukawa, economy minister, warned yesterday the government "needs to be alert to further deterioration in overseas economies".

日本经济财政大臣古川元久(Motohisa Furukawa)昨日警告称，政府"需对海外经济形势进一步恶化保持警惕"。

As expected, the strongest line yesterday's preliminary gross domestic product figures came from public investment, which rose 1.7 per cent from the first quarter. Spending was led by clean-up and decontamination in Fukushima, Miyagi and Iwate, the three prefectures hit hardest by the earthquake and tsunami last year.

符合市场预期的是，在昨日公布的日本国内生产总值(GDP)初步数据中，公共投资领域增长最为强劲，较第一季度环比上升1.7%。公共支出主要与福岛县、宫城县以及岩手县的清理和净化活动有关，这三个县在去年的地震和海啸中受创最重。

Analysts said this suggested growth may fall further in the second half of this year. An official from the disaster restoration development division in Miyagi's prefectural government told the Financial Times that he was concerned about an economic downturn "after the end of reconstruction works".

分析师指出，今年下半年日本经济增速可能进一步下滑。宫城县政府一位负责灾后重建工作的官员向英国《金融时报》表示，他对重建工作结束后可能出现的经济下行走势感到担忧。

Japan's dependence on state spending to fuel growth is also worrying in the context of its growing debt burden, analysts said. The International Monetary Fund warned this month that government debt – now exceeding Y1,000tn ($12.8tn) including guarantees – leaves Japan exposed to a rise in interest rates caused by lost confidence in fiscal sustainability.

分析师指出，日本依赖政府支出刺激经济增长引人担忧的另一个原因，是日本政府的债务负担日益加重。国际货币基金组织(IMF)本月警告称，日本政府债务——目前包括担保在内的债务规模现已超过1000万亿日圆(合12.8万亿美元)——使其面临市场对该国财政可持续性失去信心可能导致的利率上升风险。

David Rea, Japan economist at Capital Economicsin London, said: "As data continue to disappoint, the BoJ can't keep maintaining the line that the recovery has slowed. Sooner or later they may have to recognise that things are going into reverse."

伦敦凯投宏观(Capital Economics)研究日本的经济学家大卫•雷(David Rea)表示："由于经济数据仍然令人失望，日本央行无法继续坚称日本复苏有所放缓。他们早晚可能被迫承认，情况正出现逆转。"