美国失业率下降或对奥巴马竞选有利

Friday’s announcement of a drop in the U.S. unemployment rate from nine percent to 8.6 percent is seen by experts as a boost to President Barack Obama’s re-election prospects next year, especially if it becomes a trend.

根据12月2日(星期五)的一项宣布，美国的失业率从9%下降到8.6%。专家认为，这一消息会改善奥巴马总统明年竞选连任的前景，特别是如果失业率下降成为一种趋势的话。

The drop in the jobless rate is the best economic and political news for the White House in months, and President Obama was quick to note the progress during a speech in Washington.

失业率下降是白宫数月来听到的最好的经济和政治消息。在华盛顿发表讲话的奥巴马总统很快就谈到这一进展。

“As president, my most pressing challenge is doing everything I can every single day to get this economy growing faster and create more jobs,” he said.

奥巴马说：“作为总统，我最紧迫的任务就是每天都要竭尽全力使我们的经济增长的更快，创造更多的就业机会。”

Economists say the new figures are a good sign but they also note that the jobless rate is down in part because a lot of Americans have stopped looking for work.

经济学家说，虽然新的数据是好的迹象，但是他们也指出，失业率下降的部分原因是因为许多美国人停止找工作了。

Republicans, including House Speaker John Boehner, were cautious.

包括众议院议长贝纳在内的共和党人对此持谨慎的态度。

“Any job creation is welcome news," Boehner said. "But the jobless rate in our country is still unacceptably high.”

贝纳说：“任何创造就业的事情都是值得欢迎的消息，但是我国这么高的失业率仍然是不可接受的。”

Political experts say the economy and jobless rate will be key issues in next year’s presidential election. Voters will hold President Obama accountable if the economy remains weak, said analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

政治专家说，在明年的总统选举中，经济和失业率将是关键的问题。分析人士罗森博格说，如果经济仍然疲软的话，选民将认为奥巴马总统应该对此负责。

“He either needs to change the economy and the jobs situation and the overall mood of the country, which is very difficult to do, or he is going to need to change the election so that it is not about jobs but is about 'Do you trust the Republicans? Are the Republicans too scary?' Then he has a chance for re-election,” Rothenberg said.

他说：“奥巴马要么需要改变经济和就业局势以及全国的总体情绪，这是很难做到的，要么他就需要改变选举的观念，以便让选民认为，这次选举不是针对就业问题的，而是关于‘你是否信任共和党人？共和党人是否让你感到太担心？’这样他就有重新当选的机会。”

The Republicans hoping to win their party’s nomination and run against Mr. Obama next year have largely focused their campaigns on the president’s economic record, including former U.S. House speaker Newt Gingrich.

希望赢得党内提名进而在明年与奥巴马争夺总统职位的共和党人在他们的竞选活动中把注意力集中在奥巴马总统的经济记录方面，这些共和党人中也包括前众议院议长金里奇。“If Obama is re-elected and he comes to believe that his radicalism was vindicated despite the economy, despite the deficit, despite everything, I can’t imagine what his second term would be like."

金里奇说：“要是奥巴马重新当选的话，他就会认为他的激进主义被证明是正确的，不管经济多糟，不管赤字多高，不管一切如何。我无法想像他的第二个任期将会是个什么样子。”

At the moment, Gingrich and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney are at the top of public opinion polls measuring support for the eight Republican presidential contenders. Romney continues to emphasize his experience in the private sector.

目前，金里奇和前麻萨诸塞州州长罗姆尼在有关8名共和党参选人的支持率进行的民调当中排在最前面。

“I want to go to work to help American businesses again succeed, thrive, add employees," Romney has said during his campaign. "I don’t hate business. I like business!”

A steady trend of improvement in the jobless figures would greatly help the president’s chances of re-election, according to Democratic political strategist Steve McMahon.

民主党的政治战略人士麦克马洪说，失业数字如果能稳步改进的话，将会大大增进奥巴马重新当选的机会。

“What matters most in a presidential campaign at the end when it comes to the economy is 'do people feel like things are getting better and on a path to getting better, or do they think things are the same or getting worse?'”

麦克马洪说：“在总统竞选活动中，最终涉及到经济的关键问题就是，‘人们感觉形势好转，正在朝好转的道路上发展，还是他们认为经济还是老样子或是更糟了？’”

McMahon and other Democrats hope Mr. Obama can follow the example of former president Ronald Reagan.

麦克马洪和其他民主党人希望，奥巴马能够效仿前总统里根的榜样。

Mr. Reagan won a sweeping re-election victory in 1984 even with the unemployment rate at 7.2 percent, largely because voters believed the country was headed in the right direction.

1984年，里根就是在失业率为7.4%的形势下以压倒性的优势赢得了竞选连任的胜利。这主要是因为当时美国选民认为国家是朝正确的方向迈进。