融创买主题公园为拿地

Sunac’s theme park deal is a land grab, not a compliment to Mickey Mouse. Much has happened in the two weeks since the developer announced it would buy a slew of stakes from rival Dalian Wanda. On Tuesday, Sunac said that it would raise HK$4.03bn ($516m) from a share sale to “optimise the capital structure”. This will do little to restrain soaring debt. But nor is it a sign of distress.

融创(Sunac)的主题公园交易是为了抢地，而不是“向米老鼠致敬”。自从这家开发商宣布将从对手大连万达(Dalian Wanda)购买大量股份以来，两周时间里发生了很多事情。周二，融创中国表示将增发新股募集40.3亿港元（合5.16亿美元）以“优化资本结构”。此举对抑制不断高涨的债务并无太大帮助，但也不是财务紧张的征兆。

Sunac is a home builder. It needs land to build on. Project acquisitions are an important source of growth, given that the Chinese government started tightening the supply of housing in 2014. New land sales dropped by a third in the subsequent two years, according to Citi. The measures were successful: The average time of stock in inventory declined from 25 to nine months in key cities as a result.

融创是一家住宅开发商，它需要土地来盖房子。项目收购现在成了增长的重要来源，因为中国政府在2014年开始收紧住房供应。据花旗集团(Citi)数据，新地销售在随后两年下降了三分之一。官方举措取得了成功，重点城市房屋库存平均去化周期从25个月降至9个月。

The theme parks come with a land bank of roughly 50m square meters, a 70 per cent boost to Sunac’s sellable area before the deal. A third developer, Guangzhou R&F will buy the hotels that were part of the initial deal — they do not come with land to sell. In this latest iteration of the deal, Sunac pays Rmb43bn ($6.5bn) and takes on Rmb15bn in net debt. That adds up to a price tag of Rmb1,200 per square metre. Finished projects sell to home buyers at multiples of that.

此次主题公园交易带来约5000万平方米的土地储备，融创可售土地面积比交易前增长了70%。第三家开发商广州富力地产(Guangzhou R&F Properties)将购买初始交易中的酒店部分，这部分不带有可售土地。在最新版本的交易中，融创将支付438亿元人民币（合65亿美元），并背负150亿元人民币净债务，为每平方米土地贴上了高达1200元人民币的价签。出售给购房者的成品房价格将是这一价格的好多倍。

Sunac had Rmb70bn in cash at the end of the year and reported 90 per cent growth of contracted sales for the first half of 2017. Annual sales have more than doubled to Rmb151bn. Paying for the acquisition is not problematic. Net debt will jump by roughly Rmb60bn to Rmb120bn. Leverage will probably be high but new debt should be compared with the potential value of the inventory.

2016年底时，融创账面上有700亿元人民币现金，此外据报道2017年上半年其合同销售增长了90%。融创2016年的年销售额达到1510亿元人民币，同比增长了一倍多。支付此次收购毫无问题。其净债务大概将剧增600亿元人民币，至1200亿元人民币。杠杆率可能会很高，但看待新债务应与库存的潜在价值进行比较。

Citi estimates that the residential area sold in China peaked in 2016 and market share of the top 10 developers will double to two-fifths in the four years to 2020. Sunac’s financial profile will remain risky — the increase to its Rmb35bn shareholders’ equity will not give much comfort to investors. But the deal gives the Tianjin-based developer a chance to compete in China’s consolidating property market. It should be welcomed.

花旗估计，2016年中国住宅销售面积达到高峰，至2020年十大开发商的市场份额将在这四年内翻一番，达到五分之二。融创的财务状况将继续处于高风险中，股东权益在350亿元人民币的基础上增加也不会给投资者带来多少安慰。但该交易让这家天津开发商有机会在中国趋于整合的房地产市场上竞争，应受到欢迎。