中国联通股价上涨能否持续

One tiny step for reform, one decent bouncefor a share price.

改革的一小步，带来了股价的可观反弹。

On Monday China Unicom, the country’s secondmobile carrier by subscriber numbers, said it was being considered for a pilotrun of ownership reform for state-owned enterprises.

周一，中国用户数量第二多的移动运营商中国联通(China Unicom)表示正被考虑试点国企所有制改革。

This two-year-old plan, aiming to improvereturns on state assets, would enable partial private ownership alongside thestate, a so-called mixed ownership.

这一已提出两年的计划旨在提高国有资产的回报，它将在政府持股的同时允许部分私人持股——即所谓混合所有制。

Yesterday, its H shares (a quarter of thecompany is listed in Hong Kong) popped as much as 6 per cent.

昨天，该公司港股（该公司有四分之一在香港上市）股价跃升幅度高达6%。

China Unicom needs a shake-up.

中国联通需要整顿。

With mobile penetration in China exceeding90 per cent, the structural growth story is done.

随着中国移动市场渗透率超过90%，结构化增长的故事已经结束。

During upgrade cycles, Unicom has sufferedfrom its relatively small scale; it was slow, for instance, to introduce 4G.

在升级周期期间，中国联通受到了其相对较小的规模的影响。

A distant number two to China Mobile,Unicom has been a market follower, winning subscribers mainly on price.

比如，它引入4G的速度就比较缓慢。

That shows up in its share performance;since 2010 Unicom has returned minus 10 per cent.

作为远远落后于中国移动(China Mobile)的市场老二，中国联通一直是市场跟随者，主要依靠价格赢得用户。

China Mobile is up by more than half.

这一点在其股价表现中表露无遗。

The telecoms sector is familiar withgovernment reform.

自2010年以来，中国联通的股价已跌去了10%，而中国移动则上涨一半以上。

Last year, Beijing pushed mobile operatorsto combine their infrastructure assets in a new entity, China Tower, reducingcapital expenditure across the sector.

中国电信部门中，政府主导的改革并不鲜见。

What mixed ownership would entail is stillunclear.

去年，中国政府迫使移动运营商将其基础设施资产合并为新的实体中国铁塔(China Tower)，从而降低全行业的资本开支。

But it seems unlikely that an anticipatedmerger between Unicom and number three player China Telecom(also HongKong-listed), will go ahead.

混合所有制会有什么内涵目前仍不清楚。不过，人们期待的中国联通和市场第三中国电信（China Telecom，该公司也在香港上市）之间的合并似乎不太可能发生。

Instead, expect a search for a strategicinvestor —the government has said a stake sale to an industry giant is oneoption.

相反，预计中国联通会寻找一位战略投资者——中国政府已经表示向业内巨头销售股份是一个可能的选项。

Baidu, Alibaba or Tencent arelikely candidates, says Jefferies, but there is no obvious appeal for them.

杰富瑞(Jefferies)表示，百度(Baidu)、阿里巴巴(Alibaba)或腾讯(Tencent)都是可能的候选人，但看不出这对它们有什么明显的吸引力。

Although it still trails its key rivals,China Unicom has been catching up in 4G; in July and August it had netadditions of more than 5m subscribers, accelerating from the second quarter’s monthlyaverage of 4.4m.

尽管目前仍落后于主要竞争对手，中国联通在4G方面一直在迎头赶上。

Without credible progress on public-privateownership, however, the shares will drift back to the ground.

今年7月和8月，中国联通净增用户数逾500万，超过了第二季度440万的月度平均值。不过，如果在混合所有制方面不能取得可信的进展，其股价将回落常态水平。