TPP几乎无助于推动美国经济增长

An ambitious Pacific Rim trade deal being touted by US President Barack Obama would add just 0.15 per cent annually to US economic output after 15 years and contribute to a loss of politically sensitive manufacturing jobs, according to an official study of its economic impact that is likely to fuel criticism of the pact.

对《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP）的经济影响所作的官方报告显示，美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)吹捧的这份雄心勃勃的环太平洋贸易协议，在15年后每年只能给美国经济带来0.15%的额外产出，却可能加剧政治上敏感的制造业工作岗位的流失。这份报告很可能会助燃对该协定的批评。

Mr Obama has put the Trans-Pacific Partnership with Japan and 10 other countries at the centre of his second-term economic agenda and argued that it is needed for the US to get ahead of China in writing the rules of the road for global commerce.

奥巴马将与日本和其他10个国家签订的TPP置于其第二任期经济议程的核心位置。他认为，美国迫切需要赶在中国之前制订全球商业的道路规则。

But his administration is facing an uphill battle to secure approval from Congress for the deal before he leaves office in January. With all remaining combatants in the battle to succeed Mr Obama expressing scepticism about the TPP, the broad view is that the next president is unlikely to rush to make it a reality if it does not pass through Congress by then.

但是，为了在奥巴马明年1月离任前获得美国国会对该协定的批准，奥巴马政府面临着不少阻力。接替奥巴马的竞选之战中所有剩下的角逐者都表达了对TPP的怀疑，有鉴于此，普遍观点是，如果该协定到下一任总统上任时仍然未在国会通过，新总统不太可能急于推动TPP成为现实。

Mike Froman, Mr Obama’s trade tsar, defended what he called the “conservative” gains projected in an exhaustive 792-page review of the TPP by economists from the US International Trade Commission, mandated by Congress.

奥巴马的贸易谈判代表迈克•弗罗曼(Mike Froman)对他所称的这份报告预测的“保守”收益进行了辩护。该报告由国会授权，用792页篇幅详尽记录了美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)的经济学家对TPP的评估。

“Every major reputable study has said that the TPP will benefit the American economy,” he told reporters after the report was released on Wednesday.

“每一项受尊重的重大研究都表示TPP将使美国经济受益，”他在该报告周三发布后向记者表示。