中国散户热衷期货市场投机
China’s market regulator may have succeeded in taking much of the froth off the surging commodities markets last week, but the message is not filtering down to many dedicated retail traders.
中国市场监管机构上周或许已经将大部分泡沫挤出了价格飙涨的大宗商品市场，但这一信息并未传递到许多醉心投机的散户交易者身上。
As Chinese markets reopened yesterday after the May Day holiday, a few dozen young traders in Shanghai crowded into a small room provided by a local brokerage. The mostly 20-something male traders, in jeans and T-shirts, were looking forward to another week of fevered risk taking in China’s hottest new casino.
随着“五一”假期结束、中国期货市场昨日重新开市，几十名年轻的交易者挤进了上海本地一家经纪公司提供的一个小房间里。这些大多20多岁、身穿牛仔裤、T恤衫的男性交易者，正期待在中国最火爆的“新赌场”内迎来疯狂冒险的又一周。
“It’s better for futures traders to be young because they can learn faster,” said Zhang Jun, 26, who has been trading commodities on the Shanghai Futures Exchange for three years but has only recently begun to make any money. “This is not relevant to anything you study before you get here. I don’t know anyone who studied a relevant major,” said Mr Zhang, a mechanical engineer by training.
“期货交易者最好要年轻的，因为他们学得更快，”26岁的张军（音译）说，他已在上海期货交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)从事了3年大宗商品交易，但直至最近才开始赚到钱。“来这之前你学什么都无所谓。我认识的交易者没人学过相关专业，”机械工程专业出身的张军说。
On April 29, the China Securities Regulatory Commission ordered the country’s three commodities futures exchanges to curb speculation. The exchanges had already taken steps in that direction, by increasing margin requirements and transaction fees while reducing trading hours.
4月29日，中国证监会要求国内三家商品期货交易所抑制投机行为。其实，这几家交易所早已采取相关措施，调高了保证金及交易手续费，缩减了交易时间。
The measures appeared to be aimed primarily at institutional traders who have contributed to price surges for commodities ranging from steel to eggs, which have increased 50 per cent and 10 per cent respectively over recent months. Liu Shiyu, the CSRC’s new boss, wants to avoid the fate of his recently sacked predecessor, who last year presided over a boom and bust on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock bourses.
这些措施似乎主要是针对机构交易商，后者推动从钢材到鸡蛋等各种大宗商品价格飙升——最近几个月钢材和鸡蛋的价格已分别上涨50%和10%。中国证监会新任主席刘士余当然不希望重蹈最近遭解职的前任的命运——在后者执掌证监会期间，沪深两市于去年经历了暴涨和暴跌。
Poor economic data helped Mr Liu’s cause yesterday, with the price of the Shanghai exchange’s most popular steel rebar contract falling 4.52 per cent to Rmb2,451 a tonne ($378). Futures for iron ore, the key ingredient in steel production, also took a hit. The most actively traded contract on the Dalian Futures Exchange, which largely trades steel industry inputs, dropped 2.96 per cent to Rmb442.5 per tonne.
昨日，糟糕的经济数据帮了刘士余一把，上海期货交易所最热门的螺纹钢期货合约价格下跌4.52%，至每吨2451元人民币（合378美元）。铁矿石（炼钢的关键原料）期货价格也遭遇打击。大连商品交易所(Dalian Commodity Exchange)交易最活跃的铁矿石期货合约的价格下跌2.96%，至每吨442.5元人民币。大连商品交易所大量交易钢铁行业原料。
At the peak of last month’s China commodities fever, the number of steel rebar contracts traded in Shanghai exceeded volumes for the world’s two most important crude oil benchmarks, Brent and West Texas Intermediate.
在上月中国大宗商品热的“高烧”期，上海螺纹钢期货合约交易量超过了世界两大最重要的原油基准合约——布伦特(Brent)与西得克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)——的交易量。
Yesterday at the Shanghai brokerage, in the same building as the city’s futures exchange, Mr Zhang and his trader friends were back at work before 9am, buying and selling steel rebar, asphalt and copper futures contracts.
昨日，在这家与上海期货交易所同处一栋大厦的期货经纪公司，张军和他的交易者朋友上午不到9点就回来开始工作，买卖螺纹钢、沥青以及铜期货合约。
They could trade at home but choose not to because of China’s slow internet speeds, preferring the much faster systems available in brokerages’ trading rooms. For many retail investors, however, profits are elusive.
他们也可以在家交易，但由于中国网速慢，他们不会选择在家，而是更喜欢到拥有快得多的系统的经纪公司交易室。然而，对于许多散户投资者而言，利润并非唾手可得。
“In the futures market it’s normal to earn nothing in the first year or two,” said Mr Zhang, a migrant from neighbouring Anhui province who said he had made only Rmb100,000 in three years of trading. “I know people who have given up in the first year because they earned nothing and others who are still hanging in there but have made no profit in four years.”
张军表示：“在期货市场，头一两年一分钱赚不到很正常。”张军来自临近的安徽省，他说自己从事期货交易3年来只赚了10万元人民币。“我知道有人第一年就放弃了，因为他们什么都没赚到，也有人仍在这里打拼，但4年也没赚到钱。”
Liu Xin, a 21-year-old apprentice trader, started in commodities only nine months ago. He said he was introduced to the trade by an uncle who buys, among other things, egg futures.
21岁的学徒交易者刘鑫（音译）9个月前才开始从事大宗商品交易。他说，自己是被叔叔介绍从事这一行的，他叔叔买卖包括鸡蛋在内的期货。
“My uncle has four screens on his desk,” Mr Liu said. “I’ve been coming here since August and only last month did I really start to have a feel for the market and start making money.”
“我叔叔桌子上有四个屏幕，”刘鑫说，“我去年8月就来了，直到上个月才开始对期货市场真正有点感觉，开始赚钱。”
None of the traders thought the CSRC’s recent efforts to rein in irrational exuberance on China’s commodities exchanges would affect them. “The exchange is trying to reduce the amount an individual can trade but I can open more accounts to solve the problem,” Mr Zhang said. “I can open accounts using my father or mother’s identity. A crackdown like that has little influence.”
这些交易者都认为，中国证监会最近抑制中国大宗商品交易所内非理性过度投机的措施不会影响到他们。“交易所正设法降低个人可以交易的金额，但我可以通过开更多账户来解决这个问题，”张军说，“我可以用父亲或母亲的身份开户。这样的整顿措施影响很小。”
