从安邦放弃收购喜达屋一窥中国海外投资风向

HONG KONG — An obscure phrase on foreign investment tucked into China’s insurance regulations is being viewed as stunningly cryptic by Western standards. But the collection of words — not even a full sentence — adds to the mystery surrounding the sudden decision by the Chinese insurer Anbang Insurance Group to walk away from a $14 billion bid for the Starwood hotel chain.

香港——以西方标准来看，蕴含在中国保险监管规定中的有关外国投资的一个模糊说法，是极其隐晦的。但这组甚至不是一个整句的词语，让中国保险公司安邦集团突然做出的放弃以140亿美元竞购喜达屋酒店连锁的决策显得更加神秘难解。

The phrase allows insurance companies to make overseas investments, provided the total does not exceed 15 percent of their assets. But the rule does not specify how to calculate the value of the foreign investments.

该条文允许保险公司进行海外投资，前提是收购金额不能超过自身资产的15%。不过，这项规定并没有明确说明如何给海外投资估值。

For example, it does not indicate whether to use historical prices or market prices, nor which exchange rate to use. The rule does not even specify how to determine an insurer’s assets, except to say that they shall be calculated at the end of the previous year.

比如，它没有指出是按历史价格还是市场价格计算，也没有明确使用什么汇率。这项规定甚至未能说明如何确定一家保险公司的资产额，只说应该按照前一年年底的数值计算。

So regulators have a lot of wiggle room. If the China Insurance Regulatory Commission made an unfavorable calculation, it might have raised the uncertainty for Anbang, compelling the company and its partner to withdraw the bid.

所以监管部门有很大的回旋余地。如果中国保险监督管理委员做出不利的估算，就可能会给安邦带来不确定性，这迫使该公司及其合作方撤消了收购要约。

The derailed deal reflects the changing fortunes in China.

这项受挫的交易反映出中国形势的变化。

In the last couple of years, the Chinese authorities encouraged insurers and other companies to make large overseas acquisitions as a way to diversify and expand beyond their borders. Real estate was particularly attractive, and a rush of Chinese companies as well as wealthy families snapped up properties overseas. The results of a survey a year ago indicated that buyers from China were buying one in every 14 homes sold for more than $1 million in the United States.

过去几年，中国当局鼓励保险等领域的企业进行大规模海外并购，以此实现资产多样化和海外扩张。房地产尤其具有吸引力，有一大批中国企业和富裕家庭争相在海外购置房产。一年前的一份调查显示，美国每出售14座卖价超过100万美元的房屋，就有一座是被中国买家购得。

But such overseas investments are coming under increased scrutiny as the Chinese economy slows.

然而，随着中国经济增长放缓，此类海外投资开始受到越来越严格的审核。

Overseas acquisitions account for a significant source of capital outflows. And those outflows, which have weighed on the currency and the markets, have become a major point of concern for the Chinese authorities.

海外收购是中国资金外流的一个重要源头。而资金外流给中国的货币和市场带来不少压力，逐渐成为中国当局的一大顾虑。

China has been trying hard to slow a rapid flow of money to foreign markets since last summer. And Hong Kong financiers suggested this year that the government had been pressuring insurers to temper their purchases.

自去年夏天开始，中国一直在努力减慢资金外流的速度。有香港金融业高管今年指出，政府一直在向保险公司施压，要其放慢收购计划。

Anbang has been one of the most acquisitive Chinese insurers.

安邦一直是收购欲望最强烈的中国保险公司之一。

Less than three weeks ago, Anbang agreed to pay $6.5 billion to Blackstone to acquire Strategic Hotels and Resorts, which has more than a dozen luxury United States hotels. (The Blackstone transaction is expected to close this year.) Anbang already owns the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York, which it acquired for $1.95 billion in 2014.

不到三个星期以前，安邦刚刚与黑石集团(Blackstone)达成协议，将支付65亿美元收购该集团旗下的战略酒店及度假村(Strategic Hotels and Resorts)，后者的资产包括十多座美国豪华酒店。（与黑石集团的交易有望在年内完成。）此前，安邦已在2014年以19.5亿美元收购了位于纽约的华尔道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria)。

If the insurance rules played a role in the abandonment of the Starwood deal, it is also telling that it was Anbang that dropped the deal. Anbang has deep political connections. And typically those ties have insulated companies until now, giving them more leeway with regulators.

如果保险业监管规定的确在喜达屋交易作罢一事中发挥了作用，那么，是安邦放弃了收购这一点也很说明问题。该公司拥有深厚的政治人脉。此前这些关系往往深藏不露，因此在监管机构那里有更多的活动余地。

“It would be good for everybody in China to see that the rules are being applied more uniformly than people would have anticipated,” said David Zweig, the director of the Center on China’s Transnational Relations at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

“这是好事，让中国所有人都看到，规则的执行比人们预期的更加一视同仁，”香港科技大学跨国关系研究中心主任崔大伟(David Zweig)说。

Financing, too, may have been an issue.

融资可能也是一个问题。

Starwood was not comfortable with Anbang’s ability to finance the latest bid of $14 billion, according to people briefed on the matter. An earlier bid by Marriott, just $700 million lower, appeared to meet Starwood’s expectations.

知情者透露，安邦最后一次出价140亿美元时，喜达屋对它的融资能力感到不安。万豪之前的出价仅低7亿美元，似乎达到了喜达屋的期望。

Anbang declined to comment. Its partners — the American private equity firm J. C. Flowers & Company and another private equity firm based in Beijing and Hong Kong, Primavera Capital — did not respond to requests for comment, nor did the insurance commission.

安邦拒绝置评。其合作伙伴——美国私募企业J. C. Flowers & Company及设在北京和香港的私募企业春华资本(Primavera Capital)——也没有回复记者的置评请求。中国保监会亦是如此。

The 15 percent rule appears in Chinese insurance regulations as early as 2012. But it really became relevant only a year and a half ago, when the Chinese government started encouraging insurance companies to invest overseas. Even now, the Chinese insurance industry remains overwhelmingly domestic; only 1.5 percent of its assets were invested overseas as of last summer.

15%的规定最早出现在2012年的中国保险条例中。但直到一年半前，它才变得重要起来，也就是中国政府开始鼓励保险公司到境外投资的时候。即使到现在，中国保险业仍是基本上在国内运作；截至去年夏天，投资境外的资产只占1.5%。

Anbang is one of the few insurers that have made a big overseas push, so the company has been viewed as a test case of how the 15 percent rule would be enforced. But Anbang is a particularly complicated corporate group to analyze for calculating asset ratios.

安邦是大力推动海外业务的为数不多的保险公司之一，因此业界把它看作是对15%规则如何执行的一个测试。不过对于资产比率计算来说，安邦是一个分析起来特别复杂的企业集团。

For example, Anbang bought a 35 percent stake in the Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank in 2011 for nearly $1 billion. But Anbang is closely held. And the limited publicly available data on the insurer does not make clear whether it has included a portion of the bank’s assets in figures for its total domestic assets.

例如，安邦在2011年斥资近10亿美元购买了成都农村商业银行35%的股份。不过安邦被人牢牢掌控着。它公开的数据很有限，看不出其国内总资产中是否包含该银行的那部分资产。