短观调查显示日本企业信心持续恶化

Japanese companies are expecting a marked deterioration in business conditions, according to a central bank survey published hours after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe secured a sweeping victory in Sunday’s general election.

根据日本央行(Bank of Japan)发布的一份调查显示，日本将面临企业商业状况显著恶化的情况。就在此前几个小时，日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)在众议院选举中大胜。

The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan poll of more than 10,000 companies showed that the overall assessment of business conditions had improved since September by a single point to 5, where a positive number denotes a “favourable” environment. But companies’ forecasts for conditions in three months’ time produced an average score of 1, with a particularly gloomy outlook among smaller companies.

日本央行的季度短观调查Tankan显示，商业状况的总体评估自今年9月升至5点，读数为正表明状况“有利”。该调查针对1万多家企业。但企业对未来3个月商业状况的平均预测为1，一些规模较小企业的前景尤为悲观。

Weak retail spending was a factor behind businesses’ shaky confidence, with a renewed slump expected after a recent temporary boost from the release of Apple’s hugely popular iPhone 6, said Hiromichi Shirakawa, an economist at Credit Suisse. There was also concern over the outlook for car sales and construction activity, he added.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)经济学家白川浩道(Hiromichi Shirakawa)表示，零售支出疲弱是企业信心不稳的一个原因。在苹果(Apple)发布大受欢迎的iPhone 6最近带来短暂提振后，预计零售支出将再度下滑。他补充称，企业对汽车销售和建筑活动的前景也感到担忧。

The Tankan survey “suggests that Japan is going into a double dip”, he said, predicting a small quarterly increase in gross domestic product during the final quarter of this year followed by a renewed contraction next year.

他表示，Tankan调查“表明日本正进入二次衰退。”他预测，在今年最后一个季度国内生产总值(GDP)较上一季度出现小幅增长后，明年的GDP增速将再次收缩。

Monday’s survey showed a continuing gulf in confidence between large companies — largely exporters that have benefited from a dramatic weakening of the yen — and small enterprises, many of which have been hit hard by rising import costs. Large companies gave a score of 14 for current business conditions, and forecast a decline to 12 in three months’ time. For small companies, the respective figures were 0 and -4.

周一的调查显示，大公司与小公司之间的信心差距继续存在，大公司主要是受益于日元汇率大幅下挫的出口商，而很多小企业因进口价格上涨受到重创。大公司对当前的商业状况给出的得分是14，并预测未来3个月将下滑至12。而小企业的分值分别为0和-4。

“The Tankan is somewhat disappointing for Mr Abe,” said Kazuhiko Ogata, an economist at Crédit Agricole. “Two years have passed since Abenomics started . . . but it is not really affecting corporate sentiment. He needs to encourage the corporate sector to behave more aggressively but the effort has not been enough yet.”

“对于安倍晋三而言，Tankan调查结果有些令人失望，”法国农业信贷银行(Credit Agricole)经济学家Kazuhiko Ogata表示，“安倍经济学已实施两年时间……但并没有真正影响企业信心。他需要鼓励企业界采取更大胆行动，但现在的努力还不够。”