人口专家纷纷预测 本世纪末中国人口将会减少到10亿人!

What scholar Zheng Zhenzhen of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said at the 2016 World Economic Forum has stirred aheated discussion about the Chinese Population. According to Zheng, China's population will reduce to 1 billion by the end ofthis century, just like the volume it had reached by 1980.

中国社会科学院学者郑真真在2016年世界经济论坛上的发言引起了一场关于中国人口的激烈讨论。她声称，本世纪末中国人口将减少到1980年的水平，也就是10亿人。

However, some experts think a 1 billion population is still a number too optimistic, considering the overestimate of fertilityrates, they point out that the Chinese population may possibly reach 600 million by 2100.

然而，一些专家认为10亿人仍是一个太过乐观的数字，他们指出，考虑到对生育率的过高估计，中国人口在2100年可能低至6亿人左右。

A demography scholar Huang Wenzheng from the University of Wisconsin considers it is impossible that China could still have a 1 billion population by the end of the century. Even assuming with a total open birth policy, the birth rate can be 20 percent higher than the one during 2010 to 2015, and the average life expectancy also keeps increasing, Huang estimated the total population of China in 2100 would be 580 million, and decrease to 280 million by 2150.

此外，美国威斯康星大学人口统计学学者黄文政也表示，到本世纪末，中国人口很难维持到10亿人的水平。即使大力鼓励生育，假设生育率比2010年至2015年的实际生育率高出20%，再假设中国未来人均预期寿命随社会发展水平上升而变化，他预测中国2100年的总人口为5.8亿，到2150年会降至2.8亿。

Another Scholar Yi Fuxian predicts that with the universal two-child policy carried out in 2016, the birth rate still only would rise from 1.25 in 2015 to 1.4 in 2017. And based on the previous experience of South Korea and Taiwan, the birth rate would be down to 1.1 in 2035, and then up to 1.30 in 2056. Supposing that the birth rate can remain at 1.3 until 2100, the population of China would be only 560 million.

另一位学者易富贤则预测，尽管2016年全面两孩政策放开，出生率仍然只会从2015年的1.25上升到2017年的1.4。基于韩国和台湾的经验，出生率在2035年会下降到1.1，到2056年再上升到1.3。假设到2100年出生率可以一直保持1.3不变，那时中国的人口将只有5.6亿左右。

According to the 2015 World Population Prospects released by United Nations on July 2015, China's population will be 1.004 billion by the end of this century, which is based on its medium variant. Based on low variant, the prediction on population is 613 million.

根据联合国2015年7月发布《2015年世界人口展望》，预计中国人口到本世纪末将回落到10.04亿。这是联合国的中预测值，其低预测值是6.13亿。

Scholars think it is unreasonable for the UN to assume such high a fertility rate of China based on the real situation. The report set the birth rates 1.55 from 2010 to 2015, 1.59 from 2015 to 2020, 1.66 from 2020 to 2030,1.74 from 2045 to 2050,and 1.81 from 2095 to 2100. While China's birth rates from 2010 to 2013 was 1.18, 1.04, 1.26, and 1.24.

学者们认为，根据实际情况，联合国为中国假定如此高的生育率是不合理的。在联合国预测方案里，中国2010年至2015年的生育率被假设为1.55、2015年至2020年为1.59、2020年至2030年为1.66、2045年至2050年为1.74、2095年至2100年为1.81，而中国2010年到2013年的生育率分别为1.18，1.04，1.26，1.24。

Huang explains that now there are only 17 million new born babies every year. In the next 10 years, the number of Chinese women aged from 23 to 30 would be down by 40 percent. Even if there are 8 million babies being born every year, the birthrate could reach the replacement level, and every one can live to one hundred years of age, Huang estimates the population would still only be 800 million by 2100.

黄文政解释称，现在每年只有1700万名新生儿。在未来10年内，23到30岁的育龄女性人数将下降40%，即使每年出生800万名婴儿，生育率达到更替水平，每个人都活到一百岁，他估计2100年中国人口也不过8亿左右。