俄专家称2036年小行星撞地球遭质疑

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An asteroid travelling at 23,000mph could crash into Earth on April 13, 2036 killing millions and causing globAl chaos, scientists claim.
　　科学家们发出警告：在2036年的4月13日，会有一颗小行星以每小时23000英里的时速撞上地球，届时将造成大规模的伤亡，同时引起全球的骚乱。

In a plotline taken straight from a science-fiction film, astronomers in Russia are predicting that the 300-yard-wide Apophis could slam into the planet in 25 years' time.

仿佛就是科幻灾难片中的情节，俄国的天文科学家们预言，一颗直径为390米的名为“阿波菲斯”(埃及神话中的灾难和破坏之神)的小行星将在25后袭击地球。

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2011-02-14 09:39:48 　来源：国际在线专稿　编辑：陆熙尧　　发表评论　　进入论坛>>

An asteroid travelling at 23,000mph could crash into Earth on April 13, 2036 killing millions and causing global chaos, scientists claim.
　　科学家们发出警告：在2036年的4月13日，会有一颗小行星以每小时23000英里的时速撞上地球，届时将造成大规模的伤亡，同时引起全球的骚乱。

In a plotline taken straight from a science-fiction film, astronomers in Russia are predicting that the 300-yard-wide Apophis could slam into the planet in 25 years' time.

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But don't panic just yet, as it is extremely unlikely to happen.

不过也无需惊慌，因为出现该情况概率可谓微乎其微。

So unlikely, in fact, that Nasa has given the catastrophic event odds of 250,000-to-1 that it actually takes place.

据美国宇航局的估测，小行星撞上地球的几率约为250000分之1而已。

First, the comet must pass through a narrow gravitational keyhole - a small region in space that can alter the course of a passing asteroid due to Earth's gravity - in April 2029 before it can be on course to collide seven years later.

首先，这枚彗星在2029年时，也就是其“袭击地球”倒推7年的时候必须穿过狭长的引力锁眼，这样它才会受到地球引力的作用。The force of Earth’s gravity is so great that if the asteroid goes through the hole its path could be ‘tweaked’ - sending it straight towards us.

在强大引力的作用之下，“穿孔”成功的彗星轨道发生变形，气候将不偏不歪的朝地球直接扑来。

Donald Yeomans, head of Nasa’s Near Earth Object Program office, said there is a remote chance the asteroid could collide with Earth.

美国宇航局近地天体部门的负责人唐纳德·尤曼斯表示，“阿波菲斯”撞击地球的可能性相当低。

‘The situation is that in 2029, on April 13, Apophis flies very close to Earth, within five Earth radii, so that will be quite an event, but we’ve already ruled out the possibility of it hitting at that time,’ he told Life’s Little Mysteries.

“在2029年4月13日时，小行星会非常接近地球，两者间的距离仅为五个地球半径，这虽然算得上是个‘事件’，不过我们已经排除了它撞击地球的可能性。”‘On the other hand, if it goes through what we call a keyhole during that close Earth approach then it will indeed be perturbed just right so that it will come back and smack Earth on April 13, 2036.’

“不过，如果其成功的穿越了“锁眼”，我们会陷入麻烦，因为‘阿波菲斯’将极有可能在2036年4月13日‘光顾’地球。”

Although Russian scientists are predicting the asteroid may strike earth in 2036, Mr Yeomans said it is highly unlikely.

尽管俄罗斯科学家已经预测了撞击，但尤曼斯还是认为出现这样情况几率将非常之小。

Professor Leonid Sokolov of the St Petersburg State University told the RiaNovosti website: ‘Apophis will approach Earth at a distance of 37,000-38,000 kilometres (per hour) on April 13, 2029.

圣彼得堡国立大学教授莱尼德·索科洛夫指出，“2029年4月13日时，“阿波菲斯”将以每小时3700到3800公里的时速接近地球。“

‘Its likely collision with Earth may occur on April 13, 2036. Our task is to consider various alternatives and develop scenarios and plans of action depending on the results of further observations of Apophis.’

”撞击有可能发生在2036年4月13日，我们的任务是在大难临头前制定出应对办法，避免遭难发生。“However, U.S. scientists have estimated the actual chance of it happening is one in 250,000. Although it is big enough to cause a lot of damage to the planet it would not bring about the Armageddon.

尽管美国学者预测改事件发生的几率仅为250000分之1，而撞击也会对地球带来极大的破坏，但这并不意味着”世界末日“的到来。

If it is discovered that Apophis is on course to crash into the earth, Nasa would attempt to take evasive action to change its path. The easiest way of doing this would be to crash an unmanned spaceship into the asteroid

若观测到“阿波菲斯”直直向地球袭来之后，美国宇航局将采取方法，改变其运行轨道，措施之一便是让其装上一架无人驾驶的宇航飞船。