美国大选进入决战阶段大纲

The end is in sight.

终点就在眼前。

In 50 days we will know whether Donald Trump has pulled off the biggest upset in American history.

再过不到50天，我们将知道唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)是否会爆出美国历史上最大的冷门。

It is a credit to the reality TV star’s populist skills that such an outcome is possible.

这种结果有可能出现，本身就是这位真人秀明星的民粹主义技巧的荣耀。

Hillary Clinton is all that stands between the world and the Trumpian abyss.

希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)是阻止整个世界落入特朗普式深渊的唯一屏障。

It is a pity she has to pull this off while recovering from pneumonia.

希拉里在肺炎恢复期还要设法阻止特朗普，这令人遗憾。

It is little short of astonishing that this close to midnight she feels obliged to launch another drive to explain to voters why she wants to be president.

几乎令人大吃一惊的是，在美国如此接近午夜（希拉里曾谴责特朗普的午夜美国——译者注）的时候，她还感觉必须开展另一轮造势，来向选民解释她为何想当总统。

What exactly was the past year about? Or the past decade? As the song says, If you don’t know me by now . . .

过去的一年她到底在干什么？或者过去10年在干什么？正如那首歌所唱的，如果你到现在还不了解我……

It is safe to say that Mrs Clinton is not about to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

这么说应该不会错：希拉里不会变魔术。

Voters will have to make do with her campaign themes of building bridges rather than walls, and being stronger together.

选民将不得不凑合接受她的竞选主题——建起桥梁而不是竖起高墙以及团结就是力量(Stronger Together)。

Laudable though such sentiments are, they are dangerously anodyne.

尽管这些观点值得赞扬，但它们太四平八稳，这很危险。

They tell voters what Mrs Clinton is not — Donald Trump.

这些观点告诉选民，希拉里不是唐纳德•特朗普。

They tell us next to nothing about what she would do.

但它们几乎没有说明希拉里会做什么。

Her success is thus predicated on Mr Trump’s indiscipline, which cannot always be relied upon (recent gaffes about disarming his opponent’s secret service detail notwithstanding).

因此，对于希拉里胜出的预测，建立在特朗普老是乱来的基础上，而这一基础并不总是可靠（虽然最近特朗普又失言了——他说应解散保护希拉里的特勤队）。

If he sticks to advice by reaching out to African-Americans, Hispanics and women he can take the edge off Mrs Clinton’s warnings.

如果他严格遵从向非裔、拉丁裔和女性示好的建议，他可以让希拉里的警告失去杀伤力。

What then, would her campaign be left with?

那样的话，她的竞选活动还有什么威力剩下？

The answer is worryingly vague.

这个问题的答案含糊得令人担忧。

Next week Mrs Clinton and Mr Trump will face off in what will almost certainly be the most watched television debate in history.

很快，希拉里和特朗普将在电视辩论中一决高下，这场辩论几乎可以肯定会成为史上收视率最高的电视辩论。

Mr Trump will start on low expectations.

人们一开始对特朗普的期望值将较低。

Mrs Clinton is an accomplished and well-prepared debater.

希拉里是训练有素、准备充分的辩手。

That means Mr Trump’s bar for winning will be far lower.

这意味着判定特朗普赢得辩论的标准会低得多。

For many viewers — possibly a majority if the audience clears 100m — it will be their biggest exposure so far to the 2016 campaign.

很多观众（如果观众超过1亿人的话，可能是大多数观众）在观看这场辩论之前，或许都还没有这样认真地关注过2016年总统竞选。

Newspaper readers may be shocked that anyone could have failed to make their minds up by now.

经常阅读报纸的人或许会震惊于竟然有人到现在还未做出决定。

But most Americans are turned off from politics, which is why Mr Trump has come this far.

但是大多数美国人不关心政治，这也是特朗普能走到现在的原因。

If he can refrain from bullying Mrs Clinton, and steers clear of insulting large groups of Americans, the media will declare him victor.

如果他能克制住不欺凌希拉里、不侮辱美国较大的群体，媒体就会宣布他获胜。

History tells us that challengers tend to win the first of the three debates.

历史告诉我们，挑战者往往会赢得三场辩论中的第一场。

At which point panic would set in.

到那时，人们会开始恐慌。

During the 2008 campaign, Barack Obama’s aides talked of the liberal bed wetters who kept worrying he would lose to John McCain.

2008年大选期间，巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的助手谈到了紧张得尿裤子的自由主义者(bed wetters)，后者当时一直担心奥巴马会输给约翰•麦凯恩(John McCain)。

If Mr Trump holds his own next week, dodgy bladder control will go global.

如果特朗普下周能控制住不越到紧要关头越出错，那么全世界就该紧张得不能自已了。

The pressure on Mrs Clinton is already acute.

希拉里已经承受了巨大的压力。

Now try combining the world’s toughest political endurance test with recuperation from what used to be a killer disease. Doctors say it takes an able-bodied adult about two weeks to recover from pneumonia, after which they should take it easy.

在接受全世界最艰难的一场耐力测验的同时，还要努力从一种曾经致命的疾病中恢复，你觉得这得有多难？医生称， 身强力健的成年人需要约两周才能从肺炎中康复，在康复后也不应操劳。

Mrs Clinton, who is 68, was back on the campaign trail within six days of her diagnosis.

现年68岁的希拉里，在确诊后6天便重新投入到竞选活动中。

If she stumbles, coughs or sneezes in the coming days, the political results could be lethal.

如果她在未来数日里跌倒、咳嗽或打喷嚏，政治后果可能是致命的。

Unfair though this is, Mrs Clinton has only herself to blame.

尽管这不公平，但希拉里只能怨自己。

Her instinctive secrecy is a spur to the type of conspiracy theory in which Mr Trump excels.

她本能地将事情秘而不宣，加剧了阴谋论，而阴谋论恰恰是特朗普所擅长的。

His surrogates have been peddling rumours that Mrs Clinton is suffering from Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s or worse.

特朗普的代理人一直在散布谣言，称希拉里患有帕金森氏症、阿兹海默症、甚至更严重的疾病。

These are low tactics from unscrupulous people.

这些都是寡廉鲜耻之人的低级伎俩。

Yet were Mrs Clinton to be diagnosed with something worse, could we trust her to tell anyone? Everything in Mrs Clinton’s history tells us that she will only disclose information when compelled to do so.

不过，如果希拉里被诊断出患有更严重的疾病，我们能相信她会告诉谁吗？希拉里过去的一切所作所为都告诉我们，她只会隐瞒真相，直到不得不公开。

It should be no surprise that voters are sceptical of her honesty.

选民对她的诚实度表示怀疑，这应该不令人意外。

If this is a contest over who is least unpopular, Mrs Clinton is capable of losing it.

如果有一场比谁最不招人讨厌的竞赛，希拉里有可能会输。

All Mr Trump has to do is control his nastiness for seven weeks.

特朗普需要做的，只是在接下来的7周里控制住别太下作。

For most people this would pose few difficulties.

对于多数人来说，这几乎没什么难度。

But he is capable of falling off the wagon.

但是他有可能会故态复萌。

Then there is Mrs Clinton’s reputation for hanging out with rich people.

此外，还有希拉里与富人交好的名声。

She was wise to say she will not be appearing at the annual Clinton Global Initiative in New York this week.

她称自己不会出席本周在纽约召开的克林顿全球倡议(Clinton Global Initiative)年会，这是明智的。

But the Clinton Foundation’s philanthropic jamboree should not be taking place at all.

但是，克林顿基金会(Clinton Foundation)的慈善聚会压根就不应该举办。

Just as the campaign is entering its final stretch, people will be reminded of all the pay-for-play allegations against the Clintons.

就在竞选进入最后冲刺阶段之际，这些活动将提醒人们克林顿夫妇受到的种种关于他们收钱办事(pay-for-play)的指控。

Even without Mrs Clinton’s presence, three days of wealthy liberal self-congratulation is the last thing her campaign needs.

即使希拉里不露面，这场为期3天的自由主义富人的自娱自乐庆祝活动，也是最无益于她竞选的事情。

It was bad enough that she said at another gilded event in Manhattan last week that half of Mr Trump’s supporters were irredeemable racists.

不久前她在另一场于曼哈顿举行的富人活动上称特朗普的支持者是无可救药的种族主义者，这已经够糟了。

Whether true or not, candidates should never speak ill of the electorate.

无论是否属实，候选人绝不应该说选民的坏话。

But the CGI event is no slip of the tongue.

但是，克林顿全球倡议事件不是一时口误。

It does not matter that the Clintons have promised to disengage from the foundation if she wins.

克林顿夫妇承诺如果希拉里当选总统他们会脱离该基金会，这并不重要。

It is not what you say that counts.

重要的不是你说什么，而是人们听到什么。

It is what people hear. What most people perceive is a Democratic candidate who spends half her time with billionaires.

多数人得到的印象是，这位民主党候选人一半时间都跟亿万富翁们待在一起。

This, then, is the sickeningly gripping 50 days in store.

那么，关于接下来这令人紧张得受不了的不到50天，情况就是这样的。

Make no mistake: the US could be about to elect a proudly ignorant xenophobe as president.

别误会：美国选出一位傲慢无知的排外主义者当总统的可能性是存在的。

Mrs Clinton is none of these things.

希拉里跟傲慢、无知和排外主义都不沾边。

Yet she has allowed Mr Trump to turn this election into a nail-biter.

然而她却让特朗普得以把这场大选变成了一场胶着战。

At this point the momentum is shifting towards him.

此刻，大势正在向他倾斜。

Everything now hinges on Mrs Clinton’s past ability to find her best fighting self when her back is against the wall.

眼下一切都取决于希拉里能否像过去那样，在无路可退之际迸发出最强战斗力。