Lex专栏 联邦快递收购TNT是否明智

When purple and orange paint are mixed, the result is an unremarkable brown. FedEx, the US delivery company with a “purple promise” to customers, announced on Tuesday that it would like to blend with the “orange spirit” of Netherlands-based TNT Express. The new company would challenge US rival UPS, known for its brown vans and uniforms, for the number two position among European delivery companies. TNT Express shares jumped more than 30 per cent.

如果把紫色与橙色颜料混合，得到的结果是不那么起眼的棕色。对客户秉承“紫色承诺”的美国快递公司联邦快递(FedEx)周二宣布，希望与总部位于荷兰的“橙色精灵”TNT快递(TNT Express)合并。合并后的新公司将挑战美国竞争对手、以棕色货车和制服闻名的联合包裹(UPS)，角逐欧洲递送市场的亚军位置。TNT快递股价飙升逾30%。

FedEx has bid 8 per share in cash for a company worth a tenth of its own $47bn market value. That works out to an enterprise value of more than nine times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. Though well above FedEx’s six times multiple, it sits in line with the average valuation for European logistic companies, and about the same as that of UPS. Given cheap financing, the deal will probably add to earnings per share immediately, even without accounting for cost cuts.

联邦快递对TNT快递的现金收购出价为每股8欧元，联邦快递市值为470亿美元，TNT的市值为联邦快递的十分之一。这一出价相当于TNT的企业价值为息税折旧和摊销前利润(EBITDA)的9倍多。尽管远远高于联邦快递的6倍，但符合欧洲物流公司的平均估值水平，而且与联合包裹大致相同。鉴于融资成本较低，这笔交易将立即提高每股盈利，甚至在没有计入成本削减的情况下。

FedEx has confidence that it can get the deal past European competition authorities; it has offered a 200m break-up fee to TNT. Why? It has promised it will sell off TNT Express’s air cargo unit. FedEx already has plenty of capacity in air freight, while TNT Express has top share in European road haulage. UPS’s attempt to buy TNT Express three years ago failed due to European regulators’ fears that the combination would have emerged as the number one delivery company, well ahead of DHL. The FedEx-TNT Express combination would mean the three largest couriers would have roughly half the European market, with none having more than a fifth.

联邦快递相信这笔交易能够获得欧洲竞争部门的批准；该公司向TNT快递提供了2亿欧元的单方中止协议费，为什么？联邦快递承诺，将出售TNT快递的航空货运部门。联邦快递已拥有大量航空货运能力，而TNT快递在欧洲公路货运领域占有最高份额。3年前，联合包裹曾试图收购TNT快递，但失败了，因为欧洲监管部门担心，合并将诞生欧洲最大快递公司，远远超过DHL。联邦快递与TNT快递的合并将意味着，三大快递公司将占据欧洲快递市场的大约半壁河山，而任何一家公司的市场份额都不会超过五分之一。

Given the euro’s weakness against the dollar, FedEx has decided the timing is right. But really it has bet on a strong European economic recovery pushing TNT’s ebitda back up towards its 2008 peak of 550m, about a third above this year’s estimates. Without an economic rebound, this deal might turn a dreary colour indeed.

鉴于欧元兑美元疲软，联邦快递认为收购时机是正确的。但实际上，该公司押注于欧洲经济强劲复苏将推动TNT快递的EBITDA回到2008年5.50亿欧元的峰值水平，比今年的估计数字高出约三分之一。如果没有出现经济复苏，这笔交易真的可能会变成一个可怕的颜色。