二孩时代或致'幼儿园荒' 2021年预计缺口11万所

China's implementation of a universal two-child policy will impose higher requirements on pre-school education resources, resulting in a possible shortage of kindergarten spots, according to a survey by China Youth Daily.

根据《中国青年报》的一项调查，我国实施的"全面二孩"政策将对学前教育资源提出更高要求，可能导致"幼儿园荒"。

Compared with 209,900 kindergartens across China in 2014, it's estimated that about 319,500 kindergartens will be needed by 2021, which means a shortage of nearly 110,000 spaces by 2021.

2014年全国有20.99万所幼儿园，据估计，到2021年幼儿园需求量约为31.95万所，相较之下，存在近11万所的缺口。

In addition, nearly 1.99 million teachers and 1.37 million child-care workers need to be added to the preschool education sector in the same period.

此外，到2021年，学前教育领域需补充近199万名教师和137万名保育员。

The first group of children born after the enactment of the policy will reach school age in 2019; it is anticipated that the policy will have its maximum impact from 2019 to 2021.

"全面二孩"政策实施后出生的第一批儿童将在2019年达到入学年龄，据预测，"全面二孩"政策的影响将在2019-2021年间达到顶峰。

Specifically, school-age children will increase by almost 6 million in 2019, 11 million in 2020 and then reach the peak of 15 million in 2021.

具体来说，2019年学龄儿童将增加近600万人，2020年将增加1100万人，之后，新增学龄儿童数量将在2021年达1500万人的峰值。

The number will begin to decrease year by year after 2021, with an estimated 42 million children eligible for preschool education by 2035.

2021年后，这一数字开始呈下降趋势，到2035年，预计上幼儿园的儿童为4200万。

However, the requirement of expenditure on preschool education will keep increasing from 2016 to 2035. Compared with about 65 billion yuan (around 9.5 billion US dollars) expenditure on preschool education in 2013, the requirement for 2035 will be about 652 billion yuan, with a shortfall of 587 billion yuan.

然而，从2016年到2035年，学前教育经费支出需求持续上涨，与2013年650亿（约95亿美元）的学前教育支出相比，2035年将达到6520亿元，这中间的差额是5870亿美元。