特朗普,伊斯兰与文明冲突

Donald Trump’s travails with his “Muslim ban” make it easy to dismiss the whole idea as an aberration that will swiftly be consigned to history by the judicial system and the court of public opinion. But that would be a misreading. The ban on migrants and refugees from seven mainly Muslim countries was put together clumsily and executed cruelly. But it responded to a hostility to Islam and a craving for security and cultural homogeneity that is finding adherents across the western world — and not just on the far right.

唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)在“穆斯林禁令”上遭遇的种种障碍，令人很容易将其整个想法看低为一种很快会被司法体系和舆论法庭送入历史的偏差。然而，这或许是一种误解。这一针对来自七个穆斯林国家的移民和难民的禁令，以笨拙的方式拼凑而成，实施上也很粗暴。不过，它回应了对伊斯兰的敌意和对安全及文化同质的渴望，而这两者在整个西方世界——而不仅仅是在极右翼人群中——的支持者越来越多。

Even if Mr Trump’s ban is withdrawn or amended, it will probably be just the beginning of repeated efforts — in the US and Europe — to restrict migration from the Muslim world into the west.

就算特朗普的禁令被撤回或被修改，可能仍将是美国和欧洲反复努力的开端，其目的是限制穆斯林世界的移民进入西方。

There certainly should be no doubt about the radicalism of the thinking of some of Mr Trump’s key advisers. Michael Flynn, the president’s embattled national security adviser, and Steve Bannon, his chief strategist, believe that they are involved in a struggle to save western civilisation. In his recent book, The Field of Fight, General Flynn insists that: “We’re in a world war against a messianic mass movement of evil people, most of them inspired by a totalitarian ideology: Radical Islam.” Mr Bannon holds similar views. In a now famous contribution to a seminar at the Vatican in 2014, he argued that the west is at the “beginning stages of a global war against Islamic fascism”.

对于特朗普部分关键顾问在理念上的激进主义，当然不应有任何怀疑。特朗普麻烦缠身的国家安全顾问迈克尔?弗林（Michael Flynn，已于周一辞职——译者注）和他的首席策略师史蒂夫?班农(Steve Bannon)深信，他们正卷入一场拯救西方文明的斗争之中。在其最近出版的《战场：我们如何赢得同激进伊斯兰及其盟友的全球战争》(The Field of Fight)一书中，弗林将军坚称：“我们正处在一场世界大战中，对抗罪恶人群自居救世主的大规模运动。他们中的大多数人受到了激进伊斯兰(Radical Islam)这种极权主义意识形态的煽动。”班农也持有类似看法。2014年班农在梵蒂冈一个论坛上的讲话如今已变得十分有名。在这次讲话中，班农声称西方“正处于一场针对伊斯兰法西斯的全球战争的开始阶段”。

The fact that Mr Trump’s closest advisers believe they are engaged in a battle to save western civilisation is a key to understanding the Trump administration. It helps explain why the president, in his inaugural address, pledged to defend the “civilised world” — not the “free world”, the phrase that would have been naturally used by a Ronald Reagan or a John F Kennedy.

特朗普最亲密的顾问深信，他们正卷入一场拯救西方文明的斗争，这一事实是理解特朗普政府的关键。这有助于解释为何这位总统在其就职演说上发誓要保卫的是“文明世界”——而不是罗纳德?里根(Ronald Reagan)或约翰?F?肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)或许会自然用到的“自由世界”一词。

This tendency to conceive of the west in civilisational or even racial terms — rather than through ideology or institutions — also helps explains the Trump team’s sympathy with Vladimir Putin’s Russia and hostility to Angela Merkel’s Germany. Once the west is thought of as synonymous with “Judeo-Christian civilisation” then Mr Putin looks more like a friend than a foe. The Russian president’s closeness to the Orthodox church, his cultural conservatism and his demonstrated willingness to fight brutal wars against Islamists in Chechnya and Syria cast him as an ally. By contrast, Ms Merkel’s willingness to admit more than a million mostly Muslim refugees into Germany make America’s alt-right regard her as a traitor to western civilisation. President Trump has called the German chancellor’s refugee policy a “catastrophic” error.

这种以文明甚至种族看待西方、而不是以意识形态或体制看待西方的倾向，也有助于解释特朗普团队对弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)领导的俄罗斯的同情，以及对安格拉?默克尔(Angela Merkel)领导的德国的敌意。一旦把西方看成“犹太教-基督教(Judeo-Christian)文明”的同义词，普京看起来就更像朋友而不是敌人。这位俄罗斯总统与东正教(Orthodox)教会的密切关系、他在文化上的保守主义、以及他在车臣和叙利亚所展示的与伊斯兰主义者开展残酷斗争的意愿，都令他成为盟友。相反，默克尔允许逾100万以穆斯林为主的难民进入德国的意愿，令美国另类右翼将她视为西方文明的叛徒。特朗普总统就曾将这位德国总理的难民政策称为“灾难性”错误。

Through his Breitbart news service, Mr Bannon forged close ties with the European far-right, who share his hostility to Islam and immigration. The belief that the west is engaged in a mortal struggle with radical Islam clearly animates Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s National Front, who recently argued that: “Washington, Paris and Moscow must form a strategic alliance against Islamic fundamentalism?.?.?.?Let us stop the quarrels and unnecessary polemics, the scale of the threat forces us to move fast, and together.”

班农通过他原来掌管的Breitbart新闻服务，与欧洲的极右翼人士建立了密切关系，后者与他一样，对伊斯兰和移民抱有敌意。相信西方正与激进伊斯兰进行你死我活的斗争的想法，显然鼓动了法国国民阵线(National Front)的领导人马琳?勒庞(Marine Le Pen)，她最近提出：“华盛顿、巴黎和莫斯科必须建立反对伊斯兰原教旨主义的战略联盟……让我们停止争吵和不必要的争论，威胁之大，迫使我们快速、齐心协力地行动。”

These views are not confined to the political extremes in France. Fran?ois Fillon, the centre-right’s candidate in the presidential election, recently published a book called, Conquer Islamic Totalitarianism, which contains the Flynn-like declaration that: “We are in a war with an adversary that knows neither weakness nor truce.” Pierre Lellouche, France’s former Europe minister, has also just brought out a book called War without End, which argues that Islamism is the 21st-century equivalent of Nazism.

这些观点并不仅限于法国的政治极端人士。中右翼的法国大选候选人弗朗索瓦?菲永(Fran?ois Fillon)最近出版了一本名为《征服伊斯兰极权主义》(Conquer Islamic Totalitarianism)的书，该书包含了弗林式的宣言：“我们正处于一场战争当中，对抗一个既不知道疲倦，也不知道停战的敌人。”法国前欧洲部长皮埃尔?勒卢什(Pierre Lellouche)也刚刚出版了一本名为《无休止之战》(War without End)的书，主张伊斯兰主义相当于21世纪的纳粹主义。

Far-right parties with a Trumpian view of Islam are also prospering in the Netherlands and in Germany. The Freedom party led by Geert Wilders is set to top the polls in next month’s Dutch elections — although it is unlikely to enter government. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany party has surged in response to the refugee crisis, and is likely to become the first far-right party to enter the country’s parliament since 1945. Some in the British government believe that hostility to immigration from the Islamic world — more than Europe — lay behind the discontent that triggered the Brexit vote last year.

秉承特朗普对伊斯兰的观点的极右翼政党也正在荷兰和德国崛起。海尔特?维尔德斯(Geert Wilders)领导的荷兰自由党(Party of Freedom)将在下个月荷兰大选的投票中高居榜首（尽管该党不太可能进入政府）。在德国，德国新选择党(Alternative for Germany)应移民危机而崛起，有可能成为1945年以后首个进入该国议会的极右翼政党。英国政府中的一些人士认为，对来自伊斯兰世界的移民的敌意——这种敌意超过了欧洲——是触发去年英国投票退欧的不满情绪背后的因素。

Sympathy for the Bannon-Flynn-Trump view of Islam extends beyond the US and Europe. A belief that their nations face an elemental threat from radical Islam is also an animating force on the rightwing of Indian and Israeli politics.

不仅美国和欧洲有人认同班农-弗林-特朗普对伊斯兰的观点。认为他们的国家面临来自激进伊斯兰的根本性威胁的想法，也是印度和以色列政治中右翼势力的推动力之一。

Even if Mr Trump loses the battle over his executive order on refugees and immigration, he is likely to return to the fray with further measures. That is because his closest advisers and many of his strongest supporters will remain driven by a deep suspicion of Islam and a determination to stop Muslim immigration.

就算特朗普在针对难民和移民的行政命令之战中失败，他也很可能会重返战场，推出进一步的举措。这是因为，他最亲密的顾问和许多最坚定的支持者，将依然被对伊斯兰的深深怀疑和阻止穆斯林移民的决心所驱动。

There will also, almost inevitably, be further jihadist attacks in both the US and Europe that will feed this fear and hostility. Meanwhile, the long-term demographic trends that create pressure for migration from Muslim countries to the US and Europe will only increase in the coming years. The population of impoverished, largely Muslim, north Africa is much younger than that of Europe, and growing fast.

并且，美国和欧洲几乎不可避免会遭受更多激发这种恐惧和敌意的圣战分子袭击。同时，促使人口从穆斯林国家流向美欧的长期人口趋势在未来数年只会加剧。以穆斯林人口为主的贫困北非的人口比欧洲年轻得多，而且还在快速增长。

The polemic over Mr Trump’s “Muslim ban” will not be an isolated event. On the contrary, it is a foretaste of the future of politics in the west.

有关特朗普的“穆斯林禁令”的争论不是一个孤立事件。相反，它预示着西方政治的未来。