丝绸之路基建计划 资金从何而来

“If you want to develop, build a road,” runs the Chinese phrase. Beijing’s grand design to construct transport links between China and Eurasia represents the export of this simple philosophy. Beijing believes that building roads, railways and other infrastructure will help create a market in Eurasia for its goods.

中国人常说：“要想富，先修路。”北京方面在中国与欧亚大陆之间构建交通运输网的宏伟计划，代表着输出这一简单哲理。中国政府相信，修建公路、铁路及其他基础设施将有助于为中国商品在欧亚大陆开辟市场。

“The Chinese experience illustrates that infrastructure investment paves the way for broad-based economic social development, and poverty alleviation comes as a natural consequence of that,” says Jin Liqun, president of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

亚洲基础设施投资银行（AIIB，简称亚投行）行长金立群（见上图）表示：“中国的经验表明，基础设施投资为广泛的经济社会发展铺平了道路，减贫是它的一个自然而然的结果。”

But potential problems abound with financing the planned $890bn in investments. The payback period is often long, construction delays are common and political instability is widespread in the 64 countries embraced by the “New Silk Road” strategy.

但要为8900亿美元的投资计划提供融资还存在很多潜在问题。投资回收期往往很长，工期延迟很常见，而且“新丝绸之路”(New Silk Road)战略覆盖的64个国家存在普遍的政治不稳定。

The AIIB, a China-led multilateral institution with 57 member countries, is part of the potential solution. However, it plans to increase operations gradually, investing $1.5bn-$2bn in infrastructure this year, $3bn-$5bn next year and around $10bn in 2018, Mr Jin says.

作为中国牵头的、拥有57个成员国的多边机构，亚投行是潜在解决方案的一部分。然而，金立群表示，亚投行计划逐步加大运作规模，今年在基础设施领域投资15亿至20亿美元，明年投入30亿至50亿美元，2018年投入约100亿美元。

The financing mother lode for the “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative — as the Silk Road project is known in Beijing — will continue to come from bilateral lending by the Chinese policy banks, analysts say.

分析人士认为，“一带一路”(One Belt, One Road)倡议的主要融资来源仍将是中国政策性银行提供的双边贷款。

“China will most likely have more impact operating through the usual bilateral mechanisms such as the policy banks, including the Export-Import Bank of China and the China Development Bank,” says Sarah Lain, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think-tank.

伦敦智库——英国皇家联合军种研究院(Royal United Services Institute)研究员萨拉•莱恩(Sarah Lain)说：“中国通过通常的双边机制，如中国进出口银行(Export-Import Bank of China)和国家开发银行(China Development Bank)等政策性银行运作，将最有可能产生更大的影响力。”

The Export-Import Bank of China, which promotes foreign trade and investment, lent more than $80bn in 2015. By comparison, the Asia Development Bank lent $27.1bn. More than 1,000 projects financed by the ExIm Bank were in 49 countries involved in the OBOR initiative, according to Xinhua, the official news agency.

旨在促进对外贸易与投资的中国进出口银行，2015年发放贷款逾800亿美元。相比之下，亚洲开发银行(Asia Development Bank)只发放了271亿美元。据官方的新华社报道，由中国进出口银行提供融资的1000多个项目遍及“一带一路”倡议涉及的49个国家。

Not all projects financed by Chinese policy banks are driven by commercial logic, says Tom Miller, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, a research company. A $46bn plan to finance an “economic corridor” through Pakistan, linking the port of Gwadar on the Arabian Sea to north-west China, is motivated partly by the need to find an alternative route for oil imports from the Middle East to avoid rising tensions in the South China sea. Mr Miller says Chinese officials privately admit they expect to lose 80 per cent of their investment in Pakistan, 50 per cent in Myanmar and 30 per cent in central Asia.

研究公司龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)分析师汤姆•米勒(Tom Miller)表示，并非所有中国政策性银行提供融资的项目都由商业逻辑驱动。中国计划为贯穿巴基斯坦的一条“经济走廊”——连接濒临阿拉伯海的瓜达尔港与中国西北地区——提供460亿美元融资，该计划的动机在一定程度上是中国需要为从中东进口石油寻找一条替代路线，以防南中国海紧张局势影响能源供应。米勒表示，中国官员私下承认，他们预计在巴基斯坦的投资将损失80%，在缅甸及中亚的投资将分别损失50%和30%。

Notwithstanding such forecast losses, Chinese lenders are starting to syndicate participation in OBOR projects to international private sector investors and lenders.

尽管预期损失如此之大，中国各银行正开始组建辛迪加，将一带一路项目的参与权兜售给国际私人部门投资者和银行。

“We are seeing a shift among the Chinese institutions in the OBOR projects toward syndication to international pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, private equity funds and others,” says Henry Tillman, chairman and chief executive officer at Grisons Peak, a London-based investment bank.

伦敦投行Grisons Peak董事长兼首席执行官亨利•蒂尔曼(Henry Tillman)称：“我们看到一带一路项目中的中资机构正在转向国际养老基金、保险公司、主权财富基金、私人股本基金及其他机构，寻求建立辛迪加。”

He says institutions are increasingly seduced by the promise of long-term returns of 6 to 8 per cent on OBOR infrastructure. Even some government agencies appear keen. IE Singapore, the state-owned trade development board, has agreed to a partnership with China Construction Bank to finance OBOR projects, with about $22bn in funding envisaged.

他表示，国际机构日益被一带一路基建项目承诺的6%至8%的长期回报率所吸引。就连一些政府机构似乎都急切地要参与其中。新加坡国有的国际企业发展局(IE Singapore)已同意与中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)合作为一带一路项目提供融资，计划提供资金约220亿美元。