土耳其国内权斗危及欧盟难民协议

A pivotal deal to staunch the flow ofmigrants from Turkey into the EU, masterminded by German chancellor AngelaMerkel, was thrown into doubt yesterday after the resignation of Turkey’spro-European prime minister.

土耳其亲欧洲的总理昨日宣布辞职，此举给德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)打造的一项旨在阻止移民从土耳其流入欧盟的关键协议带来变数。

Ahmet Davutoglu, who personally negotiatedthe deal with Ms Merkel, quit following a power struggle with President RecepTayyip Erdogan. The premier’s departure imperils an agreement credited withsharply reducing the influx of asylum-seekers into the EU — and rescuing MsMerkel from a potentially fatal political backlash.

曾当面与默克尔谈判达成这份协议的艾哈迈德•达武特奥卢(Ahmet Davutoglu，上图)，因为与总统雷杰普•塔伊普•埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)发生权斗而辞职。达武特奥卢的离去将危及这项被认为大幅减少涌入欧盟的难民——且拯救默克尔于一场潜在致命政治反弹——的协议。

The deal enables the EU to send migrantsarriving illegally on the Greek islands back to Turkey in exchange for aneasing of visa requirements on Turkish visitors and financial aid. However, MrErdogan has responded coolly to the agreement and has shown increasinghostility towards the EU.

根据该协议，欧盟可将通过非法途径抵达希腊诸岛的移民遣返回土耳其，作为交换，欧盟将放宽对土耳其游客的签证要求，并向该国提供财政援助。然而，埃尔多安对该协议反应冷淡，而且对欧盟表现出越来越强烈的敌意。

Without reforms to Turkey’s anti-terrorismand anti-corruption laws, which Mr Erdogan has angrily resisted, Brussels maybe unable to grant some of the most important concessions in the deal — a movethat Ankara has already warned would cancel its obligation to curtail refugeecrossings into Greece.

如果土耳其不改革国内的反恐及反腐败法律（埃尔多安对此愤怒抵制），布鲁塞尔方面可能无法做出该协议中一些最重要的让步，而安卡拉方面已警告称，这进而将使其没有义务限制难民过境土耳其进入希腊。

“We’ve made good progress on the agreement with Turkey,” Ms Merkelsaid in Rome yesterday. “The European Union, or at least Germany and Italy, areprepared and stand by the commitments that we’ve agreed to. We hope that ismutual.” To keep the pact on track, Ankara must still meet several benchmarks,including revisions to its anti-terrorism legislation to ensure civilliberties. But Mr Erdogan has been loath to support them. EU officials are nowconcerned that Ankara will backtrack on reform commitments.

“我们与土耳其在落实该协议方面取得了良好进展，”默克尔昨日在罗马表示，“欧盟——至少德国和意大利——准备履行并坚守我们做出的承诺。我们希望对方也能做到。”要落实该协议，安卡拉方面还必须达到多项标杆，包括修订反恐法以保障公民自由。但埃尔多安不愿支持这些修订。欧盟官员现在担忧安卡拉将放弃改革承诺。

“It’s certainly not good news for us,”said one EUofficial. “Erdogan would be very ill-advised to throw this out of the windowand think this is now a matter of horse-trading. He thinks it’s 50 percent wriggle room, and the rest is all arm-wrestling.”

“这对我们来说肯定不是好消息，”一名欧盟官员表示，“如果埃尔多安随随便便撕毁这一协议，并认为这是一个政治交易问题，那将是很不明智的。他现在以为这其中有50%的回旋余地，剩下的则靠掰手腕较劲。”

Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat atthe Carnegie Europe think-tank, said Mr Erdogan has been “much morecategorical” in resisting changes to the anti-terrorism law. He added that withthe ruling AK party and parliament in disarray, the chances of reform beingpassed in time for a June deadline was becoming ever more unlikely.

土耳其前外交官、现在任职于卡内基欧洲智库的锡南•于尔根(Sinan Ulgen)表示，埃尔多安一直“相当明确地”抵制修订反恐法。他补充说，随着执政的正义与发展党(AK Party)和议会陷入混乱，改革在6月的最后期限前获得通过的机会已变得越来越渺茫。

Mr Davutoglu, in office less than twoyears, had sparred for months with Mr Erdogan on issues including the detentionof academics and journalists, talks with Kurdish separatists and theappointment of an independent central bank governor, as well as relations withthe EU.

上任不到两年的达武特奥卢几个月来与埃尔多安在多个问题上矛盾不断，包括拘留学者和记者、与库尔德分离主义势力进行谈判、任命独立的央行行长以及与欧盟的关系。

His departure leaves Mr Erdogan in theunassailable position of Turkey’s most powerful politician . The AK party will now hold anextraordinary congress on May 22 to choose a new party leader.

达武特奥卢的去职将进一步巩固埃尔多安作为土耳其最具实权政治人物的地位。正义与发展党将于5月22日召开特别代表大会，选举新的党魁。