低油价危及俄中天然气合约经济效益

Gazprom’s 30-year contract for gas supplies to China was based on an optimistic view of the oil market and offered no protection in the event of a prolonged period of low prices, the Russian company said yesterday.

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)昨日表示，其向中国供应天然气的30年合约当初是基于对石油市场的乐观看法，没有针对价格持续低迷的情形安排保护措施。

The contract between the state-controlled Russian gas group and China’s CNPC was signed with much fanfare in May 2014, envisaging $400bn of gas deliveries over 30 years in what Gazprom said was the largest contract in its history.

这家国有控股的俄罗斯天然气集团与中国石油天然气集团公司(CNPC)在2014年5月大张旗鼓地签署了这份合约，计划在30年期间输送价值4000亿美元的天然气。Gazprom当时称，这是其史上最大的合同。

However, since then oil prices have fallen more than 50 per cent, potentially imperilling the economics of the project, whose development cost Gazprom has estimated at $55bn.

然而，自那以来油价已下跌超过50%，潜在危及该项目的经济性。据Gazprom估计，项目开发成本将达到550亿美元。

Gazprom confirmed yesterday that the gas price under the contract with CNPC would be linked to a basket of oil- product benchmarks.

Gazprom昨日证实，按照与中石油签署的合约，天然气价格将与一篮子石油产品基准挂钩。

Asked whether the contract built in protections to ensure that Gazprom would not make a loss in the event of a prolonged period of low oil prices, Pavel Oderov, a director at the company, said: “We have registered high-risk appetite for this contract and we do not envisage such an event.”

在被问及这份合约是否包括保护机制、以确保Gazprom不会在油价持续低迷的情况下亏损时，该公司的一名总监帕维尔攠德若夫(Pavel Oderov)表示：“我们在这份合约上表现出高风险偏好，没有设想这样的情形。”

Ildar Davletshin, oil and gas analyst at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said that if current oil prices persisted, the project, named “Power of Siberia”, would probably be unprofitable for Gazprom.

莫斯科晋新资本(Renaissance Capital)油气分析师伊达达夫列特申(Ildar Davletshin)表示，如果油价维持在当前水平，被命名为“西伯利亚力量”(Power of Siberia)的这个项目对Gazprom来说很可能是无利可图的。

Analysts estimate that the gas price implied by the contract was about $350/thousand cubic metres when it was signed; given the 50 per cent decline in oil prices since then “it could be as low as $175/thousand cubic metres — clearly a lossmaking level”, Mr Davletshin said.

分析师们估计，合约签署时，其隐含的天然气价格约为350美元/千立方米；鉴于自那以来油价下滑50%，达夫列特申表示，“现在有可能低至175美元/千立方米——显然是一个亏损的水平”。

Separately, the Russian government is preparing to support the project. According to a document published by the Kremlin yesterday, President Vladimir Putin ordered the government to draw up, by the start of September, a “comprehensive action plan to ensure government support for the construction of gas transport infrastructure, including the Power of Siberia pipeline”.

与此同时，俄罗斯政府正准备支持该项目。根据克里姆林宫昨日发布的一份文件，弗拉基米尔渠京(Vladimir Putin)总统下令政府最迟在9月初拿出一份“全面行动计划，以确保政府对天然气运输基础设施建设的支持，包括‘西伯利亚力量’管道”。

Gazprom said it had no plans to request state support, but that such a step might be necessary in the future.

Gazprom表示，目前没有计划请求国家支持，但这一步可能在未来是必要的。