中俄双方已接近敲定天然气供应协议

Investors in Gazprom seemed unconcerned with it missing another deadline to sign a massive deal for gas supplies to China by the end of 2013.

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)再一次未能在截止日期（2013年年底）前与中国签署大规模天然气供应协议，但该公司的投资者们似乎并不担心。

In fact, Russia’s state gas company has been discussing the planned deal with China’s CNPC for so many years that many started doubting it would ever happen.

事实上，由于Gazprom这么多年来一直在与中国石油天然气集团公司（CNPC，简称中石油）讨论这个拟议中的协议，许多人已经怀疑这个协议可能永远也无望达成。

But now an agreement is within reach. Negotiations have picked up steam in recent months, paving the way to a deal which could not only help satisfy China’s energy demand for many years to come but also transform Gazprom.

但现在看来，协议也许很快就能达成。双方在最近几个月加快了谈判，为签署协议铺平了道路。该协议不仅会满足中国今后许多年的能源需求，而且还会为Gazprom的业绩带来改观。

Both Chinese and Russian sources say the two sides are getting close to a pricing arrangement that would allow the gas to arrive in eastern Chinese markets at about $13 per million British thermal units.

中俄双方的消息人士都表示，双方即将签署一份定价协议。该协议将让俄罗斯天然气以大约13美元/mBtu（per million British thermal units，百万英热单位）的价格进入中国华东市场。

That would translate into $10-$11 per mBtu at the Chinese border – a price that suits both Chinese and Russian calculations.

这将意味着俄罗斯天然气在到达中国边境时的价格是10-11美元/mBtu，这一价格符合中俄双方的估计。

China has long insisted that it will not pay Gazprom much more than the $9 per mBtu it pays for gas from Turkmenistan, and that the piped gas must be cheaper than liquefied natural gas.

中国长期以来一直坚称，它不会向Gazprom支付比土库曼斯坦天然气价格（9美元/mBtu）高出太多的价格，而且管道天然气的价格必须比液化天然气便宜。

“Price talks have become less difficult for Gazprom now that LNG prices are high,” says Julia Pribytkova, a gas analyst at Moody’s in Moscow.

穆迪(Moody's)驻莫斯科的天然气分析师茱莉亚•普里贝特科娃(Julia Pribytkova)表示：“由于如今液化天然气价格高企，Gazprom的价格谈判变得不那么困难了。”

For Gazprom, the key is that the huge investments necessary in a new pipeline system linking new gas fields in eastern Siberia to a planned liquefaction terminal in Vladivostok for shipments to several Asian customers, must pay off.

建设新的管道系统、将西伯利亚东部新天然气田与海参崴拟建的液化天然气终端连接起来，需要巨大的投资。对Gazprom而言，关键在于这些投资必须带来回报。从海参崴可以将液化天然气运往多个亚洲国家。

It therefore calculates its China price by deducting from the benchmark price for LNG in Asia – currently between $16-$17 per mBtu – the cost for transportation to a regasification terminal at the importing country, the liquefaction cost and the transport to the Chinese border. “With that calculation, you arrive exactly at $10-$11 per mBtu,” says Maxim Nechaev, head of consulting at IHS in Moscow.

因此，Gazprom在估算卖给中国的价格时，是用亚洲液化天然气基准价格（当前在16-17美元/mBtu之间）减去运输至进口国液化天然气再气化终端的成本、液化成本以及运输至中国边境的成本。IHS驻莫斯科的咨询主管马克西姆•涅查耶夫(Maxim Nechaev)表示：“按照这种估算方法，液化天然气到达中国的价格恰好为10-11美元/mBtu。

The formula for the deal is expected to be based on a reference to oil price products in Asia, possibly Singapore crude.

预计协议价格的计算将与亚洲石油价格产品（可能是新加坡原油）挂钩。

The Chinese side is quick to point out it no longer needs the Gazprom gas as much as it did when negotiations began a decade ago. China has now constructed alternate gas pipeline links with central Asia and Myanmar. LNG terminals already import shipped gas and more are in the works, to take gas from Qatar, Australia and Russia itself.

中方很快指出，它已不再像十年前双方刚开始谈判时那样需要Gazprom的天然气了。中国如今建造了连接中亚和缅甸的替代性天然气管道。中国的液化天然气终端已经在进口来自卡塔尔、澳大利亚甚至俄罗斯自身的天然气，同时更多的终端正在建设中。

“Russia is already 10 years too late in entering China’s gas market,” says China-Russia energy expert Feng Yujun of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. “Time is on China’s side,” he adds.

中国现代国际关系研究院(China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)的中俄能源专家冯玉军表示：“俄罗斯进入中国天然气市场已经迟了10年。”他补充称：“现在时势有利于中国。”

But China cannot be too dismissive of Gazprom either. The country faces a large future gas deficit, thanks to plans to cut coal-fuelled pollution in eastern cities.

但中国也不可能过于不在乎Gazprom。由于计划减少烧煤在东部城市导致的污染，中国未来面临着巨大的天然气赤字。

The breakthrough came when Gazprom finally agreed in May to prioritise the so-called Eastern Route. From the very beginning of gas talks with China in the early 1990s, the Russian state company had planned to supply its eastern neighbour from existing gas fields in western Siberia.

去年5月谈判取得了突破，当时Gazprom终于同意优先考虑所谓的“东线管道”。从上世纪90年代初与中国展开天然气谈判以来，Gazprom就一直计划利用现有的西伯利亚西部天然气田向中国供应天然气。

But growing pressures both domestically and abroad convinced Gazprom to give up on this idea.

但随着国内外的压力日益增加，Gazprom放弃了这一想法。

The rapid take-off of shale gas production has altered the global demand picture. In Europe, traditionally Gazprom’s largest market, the company has run into problems with an anti-trust probe and, more recently, a challenge from the European Commission to the South Stream pipeline project.

页岩气产量迅速飙升改变了全球需求形势。在传统上的最大市场——欧洲，Gazprom陷入了麻烦，先是遭遇反垄断调查，最近又在South Stream管道项目上遭到欧盟委员会(European Commission)的挑战。

The Russian government, keen to increase the country’s global gas market share and to crank up development of thinly-populated eastern Siberia, has started breaking Gazprom’s monopoly.

俄罗斯政府热切希望增加本国在全球天然气市场上的份额，并促进人烟稀少的西伯利亚东部的发展，因此，它开始着手打破Gazprom的垄断地位。

This month, legislation took effect that allows both Rosneft, the state oil group, and Novatek, Russia’s largest privately-owned gas company, to compete with Gazprom in gas exports.

俄罗斯出台了法律，允许俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)和诺瓦泰克公司(Novatek)在天然气出口领域与Gazprom竞争，该法律于本月生效。诺瓦泰克是俄罗斯最大的私营天然气公司。

Other Russian-Chinese energy projects have moved ahead while the Gazprom pipeline stalled.

其他俄中能源项目已经取得进展，而Gazprom的管道项目仍停滞不前。

Notably, CNPC is an investor in other overseas gas projects – for instance, gas fields in Turkmenistan and in Novatek’s LNG joint-venture with France’s Total on the Yamal peninsula, which received the final go-ahead this month following the gas export liberalisation law. That means the company gets some benefit from gas sales even though the domestic Chinese gas price cap is lower than imported prices, sweetening the pill for CNPC.

尤其是，中石油投资了其他一些海外天然气项目，例如，土库曼斯坦的气田、以及诺瓦泰克与法国道达尔(Total)在亚马尔半岛的液化天然气合资企业。俄罗斯放开天然气出口限制的法律于本月生效之后，诺瓦泰克和道达尔的合资企业最终获批。这意味着，即便中国国内天然气最高限价低于进口价格，中石油也会从天然气销售中获得一些好处，这让中石油更容易接受协议。

These big changes drove Gazprom to agree to supply China via a new pipeline system, called the Power of Siberia.

上述这些重大变化促使Gazprom同意通过新的名为“Power of Siberia”的管道系统向中国供应天然气。

Christopher Granville, managing director at Trusted Sources, says a failure to seal a deal would make Gazprom a west-facing company exposed to the risks from growing competition at home and a potential collapse in European demand.

Trusted Sources的董事总经理克里斯托弗•格兰维尔(Christopher Granville)表示，未能敲定协议意味着Gazprom将成为一家面向西方的公司，既面临国内日益激烈的竞争，又面临欧洲需求崩溃的风险。

“This is Gazprom’s chance to enter the fastest-growing gas market in the world,” he said. “It’s now or never.”

他说：“Gazprom能否进入这个全球增长最为迅速的天然气市场在此一举。如果现在不进入，就永远进不去了。”