中俄天然气供应协议为期不远

The saga over whether Russia will supply natural gas to China has always resembled rival families negotiating a marriage dowry. For a decade, the two sides have wanted different things.

俄罗斯与中国的天然气供应谈判就好像两个合不来的家庭商量结婚的彩礼，十年来总是谈不拢。

Now a match between the world's largest gas exporter and one of the world's fastest-growing gas markets seems within reach. That's in part because Russia is afraid that the longer it waits, the less it will get in dowry. And if the deal goes through, it has the potential to change the way Asia gets its Energy.

不过现在看来双方达成交易的日子近在咫尺了。俄罗斯担心拖得越久彩礼越少，而且与中国达成交易有望改变其向亚洲供应能源的方式。俄罗斯是全球最大的天然气出口国，中国是全球增长最快的天然气市场之一。

An outline of a deal hashed out last year would have Russia's state champion Gazprom supply counterpart China National Petroleum Corporation with 3.75 billion cubic feet a day for 30 years starting in 2018. China's current daily gas demand is about 16 billion cubic feet, which the government aims to double by 2020. Russia says the two sides have agreed on a price formula, but not an actual price. Now eyes turn to Vladimir Putin's May trip to China.

根据去年敲定的计划，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)将从2018年开始向中国石油天然气集团公司(China National Petroleum Corporation.)每天供应37.5亿立方英尺天然气，为期30年。中国目前日均天然气需求量约为160亿立方英尺，政府预计需求量到2020年将增长一倍。俄罗斯表示，双方已经就定价模式而非实际价格达成一致。现在关注的焦点转向普京(Vladimir Putin) 5月份对中国的访问。

There's cause for optimism as market prices converge. The price Gazprom charges European customers has fallen to $11 per million BTU as the state giant gives discounts to ward off competition from countries such as Norway, says James Henderson at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

天然气市场价格渐趋一致让人们有理由对中俄达成协议感到乐观。牛津能源研究所(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)的亨德森(James Henderson)表示，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司对欧洲客户的供应价格已降至11美元/百万英国热量单位(BTU)，该公司通过价格折扣应对挪威等国的竞争。

Meantime, China pays roughly $10 per million BTUs for pipeline gas from Turkmenistan and Myanmar. But China also recently pushed retail gas prices for the average resident in, say, Shanghai to nearly $15 per million BTU, according to Platts. Assuming it costs $4 to distribute gas from northeast China to Shanghai, China is ready for $11 gas at the border.

同时，中国从土库曼斯坦和缅甸购买天然气的价格大约是10美元/百万BTU。但根据普氏能源资讯(Platts)的信息，中国最近将上海市普通居民的天然气零售价格上调至近15美元/百万BTU。如果从中国东北向上海输送天然气的成本为4美元，那么中国已经准备好接受11美元的到岸价格。

Gazprom's options won't get any better. Europe, the bedrock of the company's cash flow, looks sluggish, while Russian rivals muscle in on Gazprom's turf. In negotiating a price, global supply is also on China's side. The U.S. shale revolution, and U.S. moves to export gas in the next few years, provide Asia with another supply option. Then there's the more than seven billion cubic feet a day of Australian LNG capacity due to come online by 2017, says Nate Taplin at Gavekal, a research firm.

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司也不会有更好的选择。作为其现金流基本来源的欧洲目前经济低迷，而俄罗斯的竞争对手也在抢占其市场份额。在价格谈判方面，全球供应状况也对中国有利。美国的页岩气革命和在未来几年出口天然气的打算给亚洲提供了一个新的供应选择。研究公司Gavekal的塔普林(Nate Taplin)表示，到2017年，澳大利亚投产的液化天然气(LNG)日均产能将超过70亿立方英尺。

If Russia locks in a deal soon, it could spark the development of eastern Siberia as a hub to sell gas to Japan and South Korea. This would put competitive pressure on Asian LNG prices generally--something Middle Eastern and Australian suppliers would have to contend with.

如果俄罗斯迅速与中国达成交易，将有助于东西伯利亚地区成为向日本和韩国出口天然气的枢纽。这将给亚洲LNG价格带来普遍的竞争压力，对中东和澳大利亚供应商来说是个挑战。

When two of the planet's biggest gas players get together, everyone will feel the effect.

当天然气市场两个最大的参与者走到一起的时候，其影响将遍及全世界。