重振美国不能仅靠抨击奥巴马

On one thing everyone lining up for next year’s US presidential race can agree. Barack Obama has led from behind on the global stage. The president has been shy about deploying US might, accommodating of adversaries and reticent about standing up for allies. His successor in the White House, we are to believe, will restore America’s global prestige by standing up to China, facing down Russia and sorting out the Middle East.

所有准备角逐明年美国总统大选的候选人都会同意一点。美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)已经退居世界舞台幕后领导。奥巴马一直不愿动用美国军力，他迁就对手，也不怎么热心支持盟友。我们相信，他在白宫的继任者将会恢复美国在全球的声望，对抗中国、打压俄罗斯以及恢复中东秩序。

An old friend in Washington, a foreign policy veteran of the Reagan administration, calls this a “bumper sticker” view of the world. He is right.

我在华盛顿的一位老朋友曾在里根(Reagan)政府时期负责外交政策工作，他将上述说法称为关于世界的“保险杠贴纸”观点。他说得没错。

The chatter in an already crowded Republican field is that 2016 will be a “foreign policy election”. Republicans fear that a buoyant economy will narrow the range of domestic targets. National security offers obvious opportunities. The march across Syria and Iraq of the self-styled Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) has revived fears of attacks on the US. Mr Obama’s proposed deal with Iran falls short of the scrapping of Tehran’s nuclear programme. Russia’s Vladimir Putin is menacing America’s European allies.

已然拥挤不堪的共和党候选人阵营总是说，2016年将是“外交政策选举年”。共和党人担心，经济强劲将缩小国内选举议题的范围。国家安全将是显而易见的选举议题。自称“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的组织在叙利亚和伊拉克的推进令人再次担忧美国遭受恐怖袭击。奥巴马提议与伊朗签署的协议没有包括废止德黑兰的核项目。俄罗斯的弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)正在威胁美国在欧洲的盟友。

The 2016 hopefuls are as hawkish as they are inexperienced in foreign affairs. Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Scott Walker and the rest all promise to be tough-guy presidents. Even Rand Paul, who once flirted with isolationism, has hardened up the rhetoric. Mr Bush blames Mr Obama’s hesitations for the rise of Isis. Mr Rubio, who marches under the old neoconservative standard of “a new American Century”, would slam the door again on Cuba. They are all against the nuclear deal with Iran.

角逐2016年美国总统大选的共和党候选人选不仅在外交事务上缺乏经验，而且还非常强硬。杰布•布什(Jeb Bush)、马可•鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)、克里斯•克里斯蒂(Chris Christie)、特德•克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)、斯科特•沃克(Scott Walker)以及其他候选人全都承诺要做一位强势的总统。即便是一度表现出孤立主义思想的兰德•保罗(Rand Paul)也说了狠话。杰布•布什指责奥巴马没有对ISIS的崛起采取果断行动。鲁比奥按照过去建立“一个新美国世纪”的新保守主义标准行事，他会再次对古巴关上大门。他们全都反对与伊朗的核协议。

Republican hawks are not alone. Hillary Clinton served as Mr Obama’s secretary of state. Now she is running for the office he denied her in 2008. Admirers say she too would be more robust. Had she not argued for arming moderate Syrian rebels and for a reset of the reset with Moscow when Mr Putin started throwing his weight around? Were she to set a “red line” there would be real consequences for those who crossed it. Mrs Clinton, of course, is under attack from Republicans for the deaths of US diplomats in Benghazi. All the more reason to show her mettle.

并非只有共和党人在外交事务中持强硬立场。希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)曾经是奥巴马政府的国务卿。现在她将角逐2016年的总统大选——在2008年的总统大选中，希拉里败给了奥巴马。她的拥趸们说，希拉里也会更加强硬。她难道没有主张为温和的叙利亚叛军提供武器，以及在普京开始耀武扬威的时候提出重置美俄关系的“复位”吗？如果她划定了“红线”，那些跨过红线的人将会受到切实的影响。当然，由于美国外交官在班加西遇袭身亡，希拉里正在遭受共和党人的抨击。这让希拉里更有理由展示自己的魄力了。

Some of the criticisms of Mr Obama’s approach to global affairs have a point. Most of them miss a bigger one.

对奥巴马解决全球事务方法的部分批评是有道理的。这些方法大多忽视了全局。

In one respect, to say that the president has often been reluctant to throw America’s weight around is simply to describe the circumstance of his election in 2008. He inherited two wars — in Iraq and Afghanistan — and the US was losing both of them. George W Bush had tested to destruction the notion that American military power could remake the Middle East. Mr Obama’s task was to get the troops home.

从某个方面来看，如果说奥巴马往往不愿在全球施加美国的影响力，这只是奥巴马在2008年刚刚当选时的情况。他继承了（在伊拉克和阿富汗的）两场战争，而美国输掉了这两场战争。小布什(George W Bush)已经进行过试验，结果表明美国利用军事力量改造中东地区的想法是行不通的。奥巴马当时的任务是让军队回国。

The charge against the president that half-sticks is that the imperative to end these military entanglements has encouraged him to be overcautious elsewhere. Officials who have served in the administration say he is slow to weigh the costs of inaction. Power is about perception as well as economic strength and military hardware. It is one thing to draw a tighter definition of America’s national interests; another to forget that if the US steps back in one part of the world, allies and enemies elsewhere draw their own conclusions.

人们指责奥巴马因为不得不结束这些军事纠葛，以致在其他地区过于谨慎，这样的说法有几分道理。曾在奥巴马政府任职的官员们表示，他在衡量不作为的代价时行动迟缓。实力与观念、经济实力和军事装备都有关。给美国国家利益作出更狭窄的界定是一回事，但忘记了以下事实就是另一回事：如果美国在世界某个地区后退一步，其他地区的盟友和敌手会得出它们自己的结论。

The impact of Mr Obama’s decision to allow Syrian president Bashar al-Assad to cross a red line was felt as much in east Asia as in the Middle East. China’s new assertiveness in the East and South China seas has been grounded in a calculation that the White House wants to avoid confrontation.

奥巴马放任叙利亚总统巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)跨过红线，东亚和中东一样都感受到了该决定带来的影响。中国在东中国海和南中国海表现出的新的自信源于如下考量，即白宫不想与中国发生对抗。

It is easier to say that Mr Obama has never got it right than to come up with a strategy to tilt the balance back in the other direction. Risk-taking is not just about military force. The diplomacy with Iran has been bold. Save in the dreams of diehard neoconservatives, the US lacks the resources and political will for “generational projects” to transform the Middle East.

指责奥巴马从来没有弄明白过是很容易，但要提出一项扭转局面的战略恐怕就不容易了。冒险不仅仅与武力有关。与伊朗建立外交关系是一个非常大胆的举措。美国还缺乏推出“世代项目”以改变中东地区的资源和政治意愿，它只是存在于顽固的新保守主义者的梦想之中。

The Republican contenders do not want to admit that, relatively speaking, the US is weaker. You do not have to be a US declinist to observe the rising economic and military weight of China, India and others. Nor, with the end of the cold war, can foreign policy be framed as a simple fight between good and evil. Not so long ago, Republicans were talking about Isis as the big threat. Now the danger comes from Iran. And yet Tehran is a fierce enemy of the jihadis.

共和党候选人选不愿承认，美国实力相对来说有所下降。即使你不是美国衰落主义者，你也会看到中国、印度以及其他国家经济和军事实力的崛起。同样，随着冷战的结束，外交政策也不能简单地界定为正义与邪恶之战。不久前，共和党人还认为ISIS是巨大的威胁。现在威胁来自伊朗，而德黑兰与伊斯兰圣战分子(Jihadis)势不两立。

The neat lines drawn by the contest with communism have disappeared. The new international disorder is being defined at once by the return of great power rivalry — think of China and Russia — and, paradoxically, by the collapse of the post-imperial state system in the Middle East. The US remains the most powerful nation but, on its own, it is insufficient.

与共产主义对抗而形成的泾渭分明的界限已经消失。国际上迅速出现了新的混乱局面：大国间重新展开竞争（想想中国、俄罗斯），同时有些矛盾的是，中东地区后帝国时代的国家体系开始崩溃。美国依然是最强大的国家，但凭借其一己之力还不足以稳定局面。

The case for Mr Obama is that in seeking to deploy economic and diplomatic power, and to leverage US influence through multinational coalitions, he has recognised the complexities of this new landscape. The case against is that he has sometimes gone too far in drawing the limits of US power.

支持奥巴马的理由是，为了寻求使用经济和外交力量，以及通过多边联盟利用美国的影响力，他已经认识到这种新局面的复杂性。反对他的理由是，在划定美国实力的局限方面，他有时做得过头了。

What has been missing is an overarching framework — a set of principles clear and practical enough to deter adversaries and to reassure allies. A grand strategy, in other words, that balances ambition and realism. Republicans used to have a reputation for such thinking. Now they prefer bumper stickers.

奥巴马缺少的是一个全局性的框架——一套足以威慑对手、安抚盟友的明确而务实的原则，也就是一项既有抱负又切合实际的宏大战略。共和党人曾经被认为具备这种思维。现在他们更偏爱保险杠贴纸式的做法。