页岩气革命将拉大美欧差距

This winter Jim Ratcliffe, the British billionaire founder of Ineos, the chemicals group, is trying to spark a local shale gas revolution. He has offered to share 6 per cent of future revenues with communities or landowners if they work with Ineos to develop the energy source – far more than anything offered in the UK before.

今年冬季，英国亿万富翁、化工制造商英力士(Ineos)的创始人吉姆•拉特克里夫(Jim Ratcliffe)希望掀起一场本土的页岩气革命。他提出，如果社区或土地所有者与英力士合作开发页岩资源，就会给予他们6%的未来收益，这远远超过英国以前的分成比例。

“This will be a game changer,” he argues, explaining that he copied the idea of a 6 per cent pledge from America, where similar handouts have helped start a dramatic expansion of shale gas extraction since 2010.

他表示：“这将改变局面，”并解释称，6%分成的想法是从美国照搬过来的。自2010年以来，美国类似的分成计划帮助启动了页岩气的大规模开采。

In truth, the chances of this offer being widely accepted are not high: extracting shale gas remains so contentious in the UK that it has hitherto largely been blocked. But Mr Ratcliffe deserves a cheer for trying. To understand why, take a look at the latest World Economic Outlook report from the International Monetary Fund, released this week.

实际上，这种分成承诺得到广泛认可的几率并不高：在英国，页岩气开采仍备受争议，迄今为止基本上遭到否决。但我们有必要为拉特克里夫的尝试欢呼。要明白这一点，先让我们看一看国际货币基金组织(IMF)上周公布的最新的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)报告吧。

Buried in the document is a sidebar which tries to calculate the impact of the shale revolution on US industry. The results are sobering, not just for European industrial groups, but taxpayers and politicians too.

该报告中有一份不起眼的补充阅读，试图计算出页岩革命对美国行业的影响。无论对欧洲工业集团还是对纳税人和政界人士来说，其结果均发人深省。

As the IMF points out, the revolution in the US has caused natural gas prices to fall sharply there, even as they have risen in Europe and Japan. This is because gas, unlike oil, cannot be easily transported around the world, meaning that regional prices vary widely according to the location of the energy source.

正如IMF所指出的那样，美国的页岩革命导致国内天然气价格大幅下跌，即便欧洲和日本的价格却在上涨。这是因为，与石油不同，天然气不容易在全球运输，这意味着，区域天然气价格可能会因资源位置不同而有极大的差异。

Earlier this year a paper released by the US Federal Reserve calculated that these price variations had boosted the output of American manufacturers by 3 per cent since 2006, while raising investment by 10 per cent and jobs by 2 per cent; the impact on specific energy-linked industries was far higher. However, the IMF’s research suggests that the difference in energy costs has boosted US manufacturing exports by 6 per cent, and it argues that each 10 per cent fall in the relative price of natural gas in the US will boost US industrial production by a further 0.7 per cent, compared to that of Europe.

今年早些时候，美联储(Fed)在其发表的一篇文章中估计，自2006年以来，这种价格差异使得美国制造商的产出扩大3%，投资增长10%，就业增加2%；具体的能源相关行业受到的影响则更大得多。然而，IMF的研究显示，能源成本的差异导致美国制造业出口增长6%，并辩称，美国天然气价格相对欧洲每下降10%，工业产出就会高出0.7%。

At first glance, this 0.7 per cent differential may not sound important. But if this gap is maintained over several years, the impact for competitiveness and output will be significant. It is not just the productivity statistics that matter; what the shale gas revolution has also done is create something that the IMF report does not mention: a transatlantic gap in psychology.

乍一看，这个0.7%的差距可能听上去不太重要。但如果这个差距维持多年的话，它对竞争力和产出的影响将是巨大的。重要的不仅仅是生产率数据；页岩气革命还产生了一些IMF报告没有提及的东西：大西洋两岸的心理差距。

For many business leaders in America today, shale gas has not merely lowered energy costs; it has also fostered new respect for technological innovation. Think about it. A decade ago it seemed almost impossible to imagine that America might ever break its dependence on Middle East oil imports, let alone see some rust-belt industries become competitive.

对于如今美国很多的企业领袖而言，页岩气不仅降低了能源成本；它还培育出人们对技术创新的新的尊重。想想看，就在十年前，美国打破对中东石油进口的依赖还几乎是不可想象的，更别提让一些“锈带”行业获得竞争力了。

Shifting attitudes are helping to spur a second change: as American businesses enjoy the benefits of lower energy costs, a new spirit of collaboration is taking hold among environmentalists, politicians and energy groups. Take Colorado. Previously, environmental groups were strongly opposed to the expansion of shale gas. But some, such as the Environmental Defense Fund, are now working with John Hickenlooper, the governor, to find ways to deal with issues such as methane gas leakage or water contamination. “There is a recognition now that people need to work together,” observes Fred Krupp, head of EDF. “This is spreading to other states.”

态度的转变帮助激发了第二种变化：随着美国企业享受到能源成本下降带来的好处，环保主义者、政界人士以及能源组织升腾起一种新的合作精神。以科罗拉多州为例。此前，环保组织强烈反对大规模开采页岩气，但现在美国环保协会(Environmental Defense Fund)等一些环保组织正与该州州长约翰•希肯卢珀(John Hickenlooper)合作，以设法解决甲烷气泄漏或水资源污染等问题。“现在的共识是人们需要合作，”美国环保协会负责人弗雷德•克鲁珀(Fred Krupp)认为，“这种共识正扩大到其他州。”

Not so in Europe; or not yet. This week Nick Clegg, the leader of Britain’s Liberal Democrat party, threw his weight behind shale gas. But many British politicians remain suspicious of fracking, and environmental groups are stridently opposed. In France and Germany, antipathy is even more intense. “There is a such a big gap [in attitudes],” laments Edmond Alphandéry, a former French finance minister.

欧洲则并非如此，或者说迄今尚未如此。最近，英国自由民主党领袖尼克•克雷格(Nick Clegg)表态支持页岩气，但英国的很多政界人士仍对压裂技术存有疑虑，环保组织也表示强烈反对。法国和德国对页岩气的反感甚至更为强烈。法国前财长埃德蒙•阿尔方戴利(Edmond Alphandéry)哀叹道：“（欧美态度）天壤之别。”

This gap partly reflects differences in geography: Britain is a crowded island, and in France the main shale gas reserves are found in places such as Paris and Provence. There are big differences in the legal structure of landholding too. But the other problem, it seems, is one of zeitgeist. American business leaders (and voters) have an incentive to gamble on bold technological change; in Europe, it is harder to dream about pleasant surprises.

这种态度上的差异一定程度上反映出地理上的差异：英国是一个人口众多的岛国，而在法国，页岩气储量集中在巴黎和普罗旺斯等地。关于土地所有权的法律架构也存在巨大差异。但另一个问题似乎在于当下的一种时代思潮。美国企业领导人（以及选民）愿意押注于大胆的技术革新；而在欧洲，则很难奢望此类惊喜。

Perhaps a few bold pioneers such as Mr Ratcliffe can help change this. It would be nice to hope so. But the longer shale gas remains a dirty word in Europe, the more the transatlantic gap in productivity – and psychology – will widen. And that is bad news for Europe, at a time when the continent needs every iota of growth it can find.

或许，拉特克里夫等少数大胆的开拓者能够帮助改变这种局面。这样想当然不错。但欧洲对页岩气的反感时间越长，欧美生产率（和心理）的差距就会越大。在欧洲亟需任何增长机遇之际，这是一个坏消息。