时事政治:普京为何支持巴沙尔

A year ago, I would have thought twice before using the expression “proxy war” to describe the way that Russians see the civil war in Syria. The allegiances and motives in the conflict seemed too complex. Now things are even more complicated: Hizbollah is a direct participant. But I feel more confident describing what is happening in Syria as a proxy war between Russia and the west.

一年前，是否使用“代理人战争”来描述俄罗斯看待叙利亚内战的态度，我会三思而行。这场冲突中，谁支持谁，动机如何，似乎过于复杂。如今事情更加错综纠缠：真主党(Hizbollah)已直接参与进来。但我现在可以更加确定地说，叙利亚的冲突就是俄罗斯与西方之间的代理人战争。

There are a number of rational geopolitical reasons why Vladimir Putin has chosen to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Russia has, after all, been doing business with Syria. Furthermore, given Russia’s domestic problems with Islamist terror, the president may prefer the secular devil we know in Damascus to potential jihadis we do not. Mr Putin may also want to show young dissidents at home that concerted opposition is not as inevitably successful as it might have seemed after Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)为何选择支持巴沙尔•阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)政权是有诸多理性的地缘政治原因的。毕竟，俄罗斯一直在与叙利亚做生意。此外，由于俄罗斯国内存在伊斯兰恐怖主义问题，普京或许更愿意让我们熟知的世俗魔鬼执掌大马士革，而不是让我们一无所知的圣战分子掌权。普京或许还想向国内年轻的异见人士表明，在突尼斯、埃及和利比亚之后，齐心协力的反对不一定像看起来那样必然获得成功。

But one cannot overlook the emotional argument for Russia’s engagement in Syria. By putting our weapons on the opposite side to the west, Mr Putin is tugging at a Russian heartstring. Our country’s place in history and the world today is Russia’s unifying obsession.

但我们不能忽视俄罗斯参与叙利亚冲突的情感因素。普京把俄罗斯的武器交到西方的敌对者手中，由此拨动了俄罗斯人的心弦。俄罗斯在历史和当今世界中的地位，一直是俄罗斯人的共同梦想。

In Soviet times we used Leninism as a pretext to preach and gain influence wherever possible. The motive was not ideological zeal but our sense of national pride. One popular expression, often used as a drinking toast, summed up the Soviet common take on the external politics: “Let them be afraid of us!”

在苏联时期，苏联人打着列宁主义的旗号，不遗余力地大肆宣扬，扩大影响。背后的动机并非狂热的意识形态，而是苏联人的民族自豪感。苏联人常用的一句祝酒词一语道破苏联大众对外部政治的态度：“让他们畏惧我们！”

And afraid they were – until, that is, the end of the cold war. Today, the recovery of some of this past greatness is under way – and some would measure its success by how much we are feared. Remember this when you consider how Mr Putin sent soldiers storming into Chechnya and Georgia. But the business of recovering Russia’s past geopolitical might is far from done.

他们确实畏惧苏联——直到冷战结束。如今，俄罗斯正在恢复昔日的某些辉煌，而有些人就是用世人畏惧俄罗斯的程度来衡量此举是否成功。在思考普京派兵袭击车臣和格鲁吉亚时，请谨记这一点。但恢复俄罗斯昔日地缘政治力量的努力远未完成。

What makes Russians furious now is the suggestion that their country is not important. Whenever I hear western politicians imply that, my heart sinks. It sounds like a provocation. I can just see the expression on our president’s face. In my imagination, he hisses: “I’ll teach you what ‘not very important’ means!” And I know that, for that moment, the country would be behind him.

如今让俄罗斯恼火的是，西方表示俄罗斯无足轻重。不管我何时听到西方政客如此暗示，我的心就沉下来。这听起来不啻于挑衅。我几乎能看到我们总统脸上的表情。在我的想象中，他不屑地说：“我让你们明白‘无足轻重’到底是什么意思！”我知道，这一刻举国支持他。

That is why Russians celebrated the Syrian army’s victory in Qusair as their own. They are not much interested in Syria, certainly not in the dismal humanitarian situation. But a major defeat of the rebels is seen as a sweet victory over the west. You can hear them now: “Do you still think we are not important?”

因此，俄罗斯人把叙利亚军队在古赛尔的胜利当成自己的胜利一样来庆祝。俄罗斯人对叙利亚并不感兴趣，对叙利亚悲惨的人道主义境况肯定也漠不关心。但叛军大败被当作针对西方取得的愉快胜利。如今你能听到这样的话：“你们还觉得我们不重要吗？”

It is difficult to say how significant this emotional drive has been in the Russian decision to engage in Syria, but appeals to national greatness have certainly become more important for Mr Putin of late. During his first two terms as president (from 2000 to 2008) his personal reputation benefited greatly from rising living standards – despite the common knowledge that it was largely due to the rise of oil prices. That era is over and he now needs to find fresh planks for his political platform.

俄罗斯决定插手叙利亚事务时，很难说这种情感动力从中发挥了多大的作用。但对于近来的普京而言，诉诸于民族辉煌必然更加重要了。在他之前的两个总统任期内（2000-2008年），俄罗斯人生活水平的提高为他赢得了不少个人声誉——尽管众所周知，生活水平提高主要是油价上涨推动的。这样的时代已经结束，如今普京必须为他的政治平台找到新的支撑点。

It is not clear where this will lead, but there is a grim irony in it. One opposition activist, having heard of Mr Assad winning in Qusair with Russian arms, said: “That’s all very good. The west is obsessed with the Islamists, and pacifies Putin as a lesser evil, sacrificing us, the Russian democratic dissent. When the west was afraid of Brezhnev, the dissidents here had all its attention. So let it be afraid of Russia again!”

这种局面将何去何从尚不清楚，但其中的讽刺意味浓厚。一名反对派活动人士听到阿萨德用俄罗斯的武器取得古赛尔胜利后表示：“这好极了。西方忙着应付伊斯兰主义者，对普京采取绥靖政策，认为他不是那么邪恶，于是牺牲我们这些俄罗斯的民主异见人士。当年西方畏惧勃列日涅夫(Brezhnev)时，异见人士是西方关注的焦点。那就让他们再次畏惧俄罗斯吧！”