来自2066年的历史答卷 若伊万卡·特朗普成为总统
This piece addresses the challenge: Donald Trump was not an accident but the logical culmination of long-term trends in politics and society.
本篇答案回答的问题是：唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)的崛起并非偶然，而是政治、社会长期趋势的必然结果。
Discuss.
请就这一说法进行论述。
Donald Trump’s defeat in the 2016 presidential election at first seemed a definitive rejection not only of Mr Trump but of the very notion of Trumpism.
（本文有关2016美国大选结果的描述，为作者的虚构情境，编者注）唐纳德.特朗普在2016年总统选举中落败，最初看起来不仅是对特朗普的明确否决，而且还是对特朗普主义这个概念的明确否决。
He lost the black vote by 94 points, the Hispanic vote by 66 points and the female vote by 16 points —
他以94个百分点的差距输掉黑人选票，66个百分点的差距输掉西裔美国人选票，16个百分点的差距输掉女性选票。
and the demographic and cultural trends pointed to an ever larger non-white population and an increasingly empowered female population.
美国的人口和文化呈现出这样的趋势：非白人人口越来越多，女性人口的力量越来越强大。
No matter how angry white male voters became, simple maths implied that they had blown their last chance to take their country back.
无论白人男性选民多么愤怒，简单的加减法表明，他们失去了夺回自己国家的最后机会。
The future, according to one disappointed Trump supporter, belongs to some Hispanic lesbian with a plan for more inclusive bathrooms and a visceral hatred of red meat.
一名失望的特朗普支持者表示：未来属于某个西裔女同，她计划推广中性厕所、并发自内心地憎恶红肉。
The Republican party’s famous report on its 2016 election loss, Autopsy 2: The History of a Dead Horse, appeared to acknowledge this harsh reality.
共和党发表的关于其2016年败选的著名报告《剖析2：一匹死马的历史》(Autopsy 2: The History of a Dead Horse)似乎承认了这一严峻的现实。
Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, noted that the party had not sold its soul to Mr Trump.
美国共和党全国委员会(Republican National Committee)主席雷恩斯.普里巴斯(Reince Priebus)指出，共和党没有将灵魂出卖给特朗普。
It was merely rented, Mr Priebus insisted, and it was returned with hardly any visible damage at all.
普里巴斯坚称：只是出借了一下，而且几乎没有造成任何明显的损害。
Reform was in the air.
改革呼之欲出。
In a vicious counter-revolution, the Republican elite purged the Trumpian elements from its ranks.
在一场恶性的反革命行动中，共和党精英将特朗普主义元素从体系里清除了出去。
Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich and Rudy Giuliani all abandoned politics and took jobs as commentators with Trump’s TV Huge™, his cable news network (all were fired within six months).
克里斯.克里斯蒂(Chris Christie)、纽特.金里奇(Newt Gingrich)和鲁迪.朱利亚尼(Rudy Giuliani)全都退出政界，在特朗普的有线新闻台TV Huge™担任评论员（而且全都在6个月里被炒了鱿鱼）。
The party also cartelised its donors, cutting off the insurgent candidates from life-giving soft money.
共和党也垄断了捐赠者，切断了叛逆候选人赖以维持竞选的软钱。
They seized control of the primary system, appointing hundreds of super-delegates, closing the state primaries and establishing a system for equal television time for candidates not already blessed with celebrity.
他们控制了初选体系，任命了数百名超级代表，搞定了各州的初选并创建了让尚不知名的候选人也能获得同等上电视时间的制度。
The reform process worked.
这种改革进程取得了成效，
At least, it worked for a while and to a degree.
至少在一段时间内、在某种程度上取得了成效。
The Republican primary voters seemed dispirited but chastened.
共和党初选选民似乎积极性受挫，但也学乖了。
In the next four primary elections, the party nominated a Bush and three Romney boys, whom no one could tell apart.
在接下来4场大选的初选中，共和党分别提名了一个来自布什家族的候选人和三个罗姆尼家的小伙子（这三个没人能分得清）。
They were firmly from the Republican establishment.
他们绝对属于共和党建制派，
They all made an earnest effort to attract minority and female voters.
而且全都竭尽全力吸引少数族裔和女性选民。
But they did not get elected.
但他们没有当选。
Minority voters were unimpressed with what became known as the Wonder Bread candidates.
少数族裔选民对这些后来被形容为奇妙面包(Wonder Bread)的候选人不感冒。
The Trumpian Republican base lacked enthusiasm for their platform of tax cuts and strong defence, while swing voters were more inspired by exotic Democratic candidates.
曾经坚定支持特朗普的那些共和党选民对他们提出的减税和巩固国防纲领缺乏热情，而摇摆选民对那些充满新鲜元素的民主党候选人更有共鸣。
The Republicans lost in rapid succession to the first female president, the first Hispanic president and the first gay president.
共和党迷失在美国首位女性总统、首位西裔总统以及首位同性恋总统的快速更替中。
Julian Castro’s vice-president was a transgender Iraqi war veteran, referred to in official functions by the gender neutral pronoun ne.
朱利安.卡斯特罗(Julian Castro)的副总统是一个曾参加伊拉克战争的跨性别者，在官方场合中用中性代词ne来指代。
The Republican base grew more restless and angry as the inaugural parade evolved into a multicultural showcase for alternative lifestyles.
随着总统就职典礼游行演变为另类生活方式的多文化展览场，共和党的基础选民越来越焦躁和愤怒。
The court-ordered legalisation of polygamy in 2030 was the rightwing’s final, bitter defeat in the culture wars.
法庭在2030年裁定一夫多妻合法，标志着这场文化战争以右翼的惨败告终。
The electorate was clearly waiting for a leader who could both respond to their cultural fears but also charm the mass of apathetic voters brainwashed by political correctness.
所有选民显然都在等待这样一个领导人，即既能回应他们在文化方面的担忧，又能争取大量被政治正确性洗脑的麻木的选民。
In 2036, that candidate emerged from the most obvious of places: the Trump family.
在2036年，这样一个候选人在最显而易见的地方出现了：特朗普家族。
Building on the example of French president Marine Le Pen, Ivanka Trump set out to present the old Trumpism with a human face.
效仿法国总统马琳.勒庞(Marine Le Pen)的榜样，伊万卡.特朗普(Ivanka Trump)开始以人性化的面孔重新呈现老的特朗普主义。
Her political programme was explicitly Trumpian in that it focused on ending immigration and restoring American greatness.
她的政治计划带有明显的特朗普色彩——着重于结束移民并恢复美国的伟大。
In carefully chosen words, she signalled to her father’s core demographic that she was his political heir.
她以谨慎的措辞向父亲的核心支持者暗示，她是父亲的政治继承人。
But she avoided the bluster that had obscured her father’s message.
但她从无狂言妄语，当年她父亲就是发表了太多狂言妄语，导致人们听不清他真正想要传达的意思。
When her 90-year old father awkwardly tried to campaign for her, her staff spread the rumour that he was impotent.
当她90岁的老父亲颤悠悠试图为她助选时，她的工作人员散布消息说他阳痿。
When he was found dead of a Viagra overdose, sympathy for Ivanka’s family travails only increased.
当他被发现死于过量服用伟哥时，人们对伊万卡家中的不幸遭遇更是平添同情。
Even the Republican establishment was charmed by her combination of flawless grace and steely nativism.
甚至连共和党建制派也折服于她完美无瑕的风度和强硬的本土主义。
She was much better prepared for the general election than her father had been in 2016.
比起父亲在2016年参加大选时，伊万卡对参选要有准备得多。
She was calm where he had been angry; inclusive where he had been racist; attractive where he had been ugly.
她在当年让父亲怒气冲冲的问题上心平气和，在父亲曾发表种族主义言论的问题上立场包容，在他失态的地方展示魅力。
Her kinder, gentler Trumpism reinvigorated Trump Snr’s dispirited white working-class base.
伊万卡更友好、更温和的特朗普主义，让垂头丧气的老特朗普的白人劳动阶层支持者恢复了活力。
Her patriotic appeal to restore American greatness and finally end the wars in Iraq and post-Saudi Arabia won over independents tired of the Democrats’ missionary zeal.
她让美国再次变得伟大并最终结束伊拉克和后沙特战争的爱国主义呼吁，赢得了中间派选民的支持，后者厌倦了民主党满腔热忱的使命感。
And her friendly manner reassured many of those minorities that her father had so frightened.
她的友好态度安抚了许多曾被她父亲吓坏的少数族裔。
She was also blessed in her opponent.
还有一件幸运的事情是，她的对手不是很强。
Chelsea Clinton had enjoyed an impressive career in philanthropy and politics but she was still dogged by numerous nagging scandals, including the decades-old accusation that, in 1993, she had murdered Vince Foster, the deputy White House counsel, in a fit of pubescent pique.
切尔西.克林顿(Chelsea Clinton)在慈善机构和政界取得了令人瞩目的成绩，但她仍受到诸多恼人丑闻的困扰，包括一个持续流传了几十年的说法，指控在1993年，正值青春期的她一时火起谋杀了白宫副法律顾问文斯.福斯特(Vince Foster)。
Ivanka Trump’s electoral triumph was narrow but solid and she quickly consolidated control.
伊万卡.特朗普以微弱但坚实的优势赢得了选举，她很快掌控了局面。
After five terms in office, three suspensions of the constitution and 15 million deportations, it was safe to say that President Trump’s iron rule had ushered in a new age in American politics.
特朗普总统在任5个任期、3次暂停宪法并将1500万人驱逐出境，我们完全有理由说，她的铁腕统治为美国政治的一个新时代拉开了帷幕。
A decade after Ivanka Trump’s bloody ousting by the Mormon-Trotskyist Romney Underground, it is clear that the political trends behind Trumpism did not culminate in 2016 — they had much further to go.
在伊万卡.特朗普被信奉摩门教-托洛茨基主义的罗姆尼地下组织(Romney Underground)血腥推翻十年后，可以清楚地看到，支撑起特朗普主义的那些政治趋势并未在2016年达到顶峰——它们还会持续长得多的时间。
After Donald Trump’s candidacy, they lay dormant, or maybe festered, awaiting the right messenger.
在唐纳德.特朗普败选后，它们蛰伏起来，或许腐败溃烂，等待下一个合适的信使到来。
Ivanka Trump’s ascension proved what has since become a truism in American politics: if you want to be a fascist president of the United States, it helps to be friendly and attractive . . . and Jewish.
伊万卡.特朗普的崛起证明了一件事，这件事后来成为了美国政坛的常识：如果你想成为美国的法西斯总统，友善和富有魅力……以及有犹太身份有所帮助。
