全球化已遭遇瓶颈 并且在某些领域发生了逆转

Has the tide of globalisation turned? This is a vitally important question.

全球化进程转向了吗？这是一个极其重要的问题。

The answer is closely connected to the state of the world economy and the west’s politics.

答案与全球经济和西方政治状况密切相关。

Migration raises quite specific issues.

移民提出一些非常特殊的问题。

The era of globalisation was not accompanied by a general commitment to liberalising flows of people.

各国并未在全球化时代普遍承诺实现人员自由流动。

So I will focus here on trade and capital flows.

因此，我这里将主要谈谈贸易和资本流动。

The evidence in these areas seems quite clear.

这些领域的证据似乎非常清晰。

Globalisation has reached a plateau and, in some areas, is in reverse.

全球化已遭遇瓶颈，并且在某些领域发生了逆转。

An analysis from the Peterson Institute for International Economics argues that ratios of world trade to output have been flat since 2008, making this the longest period of such stagnation since the second world war.

华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的分析认为，自2008年以来世界贸易与产值的比例几乎没有发生变化，从而成为自二战以来此类停滞持续时间最长的一段时期。

According to Global Trade Alert, even the volume of world trade stagnated between January 2015 and March 2016, though the world economy continued to grow.

据全球贸易预警组织(Global Trade Alert)表示，全球贸易规模甚至在2015年1月至2016年3月期间也出现了停滞，尽管全球经济继续增长。

The stock of cross-border financial assets peaked at 57 per cent of global output in 2007, falling to 36 per cent by 2015.

跨境金融资产存量与全球产值的比例在2007年达到57%的峰值，到2015年降至36%。

Finally, inflows of foreign direct investment have remained well below the 3.3 per cent of world output attained in 2007, though the stock continues to rise, albeit slowly, relative to output.

最后，外商直接投资(fdi)流入与全球产值比例依然远低于2007年的3.3%，尽管该比例还在缓慢增长。

Thus, the impetus towards further economic integration has stalled and in some respects gone into reverse.

因此，进一步经济一体化的动力停滞，甚至在某些方面还发生了逆转。

Globalisation is no longer driving world growth.

全球化不再推动世界增长。

If this process is indeed coming to an end, or even going into reverse, it would not be the first time since the industrial revolution, in the early 19th century.

如果全球化进程真的趋于结束、乃至发生逆转，这将不是自19世纪初工业革命以来的首次。

Another period of globalisation, in an era of empires, occurred in the late 19th century.

另一次全球化发生在19世纪末的帝国时代。

The first world war ended this and the Great Depression destroyed it.

第一次世界大战让那次全球化进程停止，大萧条(Great Depression)则完全摧毁了它。

A principal focus of US economic and foreign policy after 1945 was to recreate the global economy, but this time among sovereign states and guided by international economic institutions.

美国经济和外交政策在1945年之后主要致力于重新构建全球经济，但此次全球化是主权国家之间开展的，并受到国际经济组织的指导。

If Donald Trump, who has embraced protectionism and denigrated global institutions, were to be elected president in November, it would be a repudiation of a central thrust of postwar US policy.

如果今年11月支持保护主义并诋毁全球机构的唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)当选为美国总统，战后的美国政策核心将会遭到否定。

Given the historical record and the current politics of trade, notably in the US, it is natural to ask whether the same could happen to the more recent era of globalisation.

鉴于历史记录以及当前围绕贸易的政治纷争（尤其是在美国），人们自然会问，如今的这个全球化时代是否会重蹈覆辙。

That requires us to understand the drivers.

这需要我们理解背后的驱动因素。

Part of the reason for the slowdown is that many opportunities are, if not exhausted, radically diminished.

全球化步伐放缓的部分原因在于，许多机遇即便不是完全消失，也是急剧减少。

When, for example, the production of essentially all labour-intensive manufactures has moved out of the rich countries, the growth of trade in such products must fall.

例如，当基本上所有的劳动密集型制造商都将生产搬离富裕国家的时候，此类产品的贸易增长必定下降。

Similarly, when the biggest investment boom in the history of the world, that in China, slows, so too must the demand for many commodities.

同样，当全球历史上最大的投资热潮（发生在中国）放缓的时候，许多大宗商品的需求也必定下降。

That will affect both their prices and their quantities.

这将会影响它们的价格和数量。

Again, the end of once-in-a-lifetime global credit boom is sure to lead to a decline in the cross-border holdings of financial assets.

还有，一生一遇的全球信贷热潮的结束，当然会导致跨境金融资产持有量的下降。

Finally, after decades of FDI, a host of companies with something to gain from it will have taken their opportunity and succeeded or, in important cases, failed.

最后，在数十年的外商直接投资之后，可从中受益的许多公司应该已经抓住机遇并取得成功了或者（在某些重要情况下）失败了。

Yet this is not all there is to this story.

然而，这并不是故事的全部。

Trade liberalisation has stalled and one can see a steady rise in protectionist measures.

贸易自由化已经停滞，人们可以看到保护主义举措日益增多。

The financial crisis brought with it regulatory measures, many of which are bound to slow cross-border financial flows.

此次金融危机催生了监管举措，其中许多举措肯定会减缓跨境资金流动。

The rise of xenophobic sentiment and the slowdown in trade are both likely to reduce the growth of FDI.

排外情绪上升和贸易放缓全都可能减缓外商直接投资的增长。

In brief, policy is less supportive.

简言之，政策支持度下降。

The politics are becoming even less so.

政治方面的支持度下降得更厉害。

Again, the US is the central part of the story.

美国再次处于故事核心。

Mr Trump is much the most protectionist candidate for US president since the 1930s.

特朗普是上世纪30年代以来最具保护主义色彩的美国总统候选人。

But, revealingly, Hillary Clinton, an architect of the US pivot to Asia has turned against the Trans-Pacific Partnership, of which she was once a keen supporter.

但颇能说明问题的是，制定美国重返亚洲战略的希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)开始反对《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)。

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, being negotiated between the US and the EU, is now in deep trouble.

美国和欧盟正在谈判的《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定》(Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP)现在深陷困境。

The Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations is moribund.

多哈回合的多边贸易谈判奄奄一息。

Above all, important segments of the western public no longer believes increased trade benefits them.

最重要的是，西方民众中的一些重要群体不再相信增加贸易会让他们受益。

Evidence on relative real incomes and adjustment to rising imports provides some support for such scepticism.

相对实际收入和对进口日益增长的适应方面的证据，为此类怀疑提供了一些支持。

Thus, globalisation has at best stalled.

因此，全球化往好里说也是出现了停滞。

Could it even go into reverse? Yes.

它可能会发生逆转吗？答案是肯定的。

Globalisation requires peace among the great powers.

全球化需要大国之间保持和平。

Some would also argue it requires a hegemonic power: the UK before 1914 and the US after 1945.

一些人还会说，全球化需要一个霸权国家：1914年前的英国和1945年后的美国。

At a time of poor economic performance in leading high-income countries, rising inequality and big shifts in the balance of global power, another collapse must be a possibility.

在主要高收入国家经济表现疲弱、不平等加剧以及全球力量平衡发生重大转变之际，全球化完全有可能再次崩溃。

Consider the impact of any fighting between the US and China over the South China Sea, though such a calamity would be terrifying for far more than its narrow economic effects.

想想假如美中围绕南中国海发生任何冲突会带来什么影响吧，尽管那样的灾难性事件让人不寒而栗之处将远不止是它对经济领域的影响。

Does globalisation’s stalling matter? Yes.

全球化停滞重要吗？答案是肯定的。

The era of globalisation has seen the first fall in global inequality of household incomes since the early 19th century.

在全球化时代，全球家庭收入不平等出现了自19世纪初以来的首次下降。

Between 1980 and 2015, average global real income rose by 120 per cent.

从1980年到2015年，全球平均实际收入增长了120%。

The opportunities afforded by globalisation are vital.

全球化提供的机遇非常重要。

Our future cannot lie in closing ourselves off from one another.

彼此封闭起来不可能有未来。

The failure — a profound one — lies in not ensuring that gains were more equally shared, notably within high-income economies.

全球化的（重大）错误在于没有确保更平等地分享益处，尤其是在高收入经济体内部。

Equally dismal was the failure to cushion those adversely affected.

同样令人遗憾的是，全球化未能保护那些遭受不利影响的人群、努力减轻他们所受的冲击。

But we cannot stop economic change.

但我们无法让经济变化停止。

Moreover, the impact on jobs and wages of rising productivity and new technologies has far exceeded that of rising imports.

此外，生产率增长和新技术对就业和薪资的影响，远远超过进口增长的影响。

Globalisation must not be made a scapegoat for all our ills.

我们不能把所有的问题都怪到全球化头上。

Yet it has now stalled, as have the policies driving it.

然而，如今全球化已经停滞，驱动全球化的政策同样如此。

It might reverse.

它还可能发生逆转。

Yet even a stalling would slow economic progress and reduce opportunities for the world’s poor.

全球化即便只是停滞，也会让经济进步变慢，并减少全球穷人的机遇。

Pushing globalisation forward requires different domestic and external policies from those of the past.

推动全球化前进需要不同以往的国内和外部政策。

Globalisation’s future depends on better management.

全球化的未来取决于管理的改善。

Will that happen? Alas, I am not optimistic.

这种改善可能实现吗？反正我不乐观。