中国新版排放标准威胁车企利润
Three months after announcing the biggest annual loss in the company’s history for 2015 due to its diesel emissions scandal, Volkswagen in July unveiled unexpectedly high profits for the first half of this year, fuelled by sales of VW cars in China.
大众汽车(Volkswagen)今年7月意外宣布，受中国市场销售提振，今年上半年利润强劲。三个月前大众宣称，因柴油排放丑闻影响，该公司在2015年创出历史上最大规模的亏损。
There, unlike Europe and the US, the VW brand has not been tarnished by the German carmaker’s scandal, and Chinese demand for vehicles is strong in spite of the country’s economic slowdown.
与欧洲和美国市场不同，这家德国汽车制造商的品牌名誉在中国市场没有遭受影响。尽管经济增长放缓，但中国人对汽车的需求依然强劲。
But China’s tolerance for polluting vehicles — the market is dominated by cars powered by petrol engines — is now drawing to an end. A rollout of new legislation due to be completed by 2020 aims to tighten China’s rules on cars’ emissions and fuel economy, bringing them into line with western countries and thereby curbing the industry’s contribution to global warming and air pollution.
但中国对污染汽车的容忍趋于结束——在中国市场占据主导地位的是汽油发动机汽车。中国预计在2020年完成实施新的排放标准，以收紧对汽车排放和燃效的规定，使之赶上西方国家的标准，从而抑制该产业对全球变暖和空气污染的影响。
The legislation is expected by some analysts to hit the profits of companies operating in what is the world’s largest automobile market, but VW and other overseas carmakers are better placed than their domestic rivals to cope with China’s shift to stricter standards, says Jane Lewis, analyst at Macquarie.
一些分析师预计，此举将会影响在全球最大汽车市场运营的车企的利润，但麦格理(Macquarie)分析师简•刘易斯(Jane Lewis)表示，与中国竞争对手相比，大众和其他海外汽车制造商更容易应对中国标准趋严的变化。
“The domestic brands are hit disproportionately as international brands face similar emission and fuel economy requirements in other markets,” she adds.
她补充称：“中国品牌受到超出比例的冲击，而国际品牌在其他市场面临类似的排放和燃效要求。”
Some overseas carmakers, such as Jaguar Land Rover, may struggle to meet fuel economy targets set by the Chinese government for their fleets but most international brands will reach these goals, says Ms Lewis. The worst hit will be smaller domestic carmakers, she adds.
刘易斯表示，捷豹路虎(Jaguar Land Rover)等几家海外汽车制造商可能难以在所有车型上实现中国政府设定的燃效目标，但大多数国际品牌将会达到这些目标。她补充称，遭受影响最严重的将是较小的中国本土车企。
The main drivers behind China’s emissions and fuel economy targets are efforts to reduce air pollution in towns and cities and promote technical developments in the domestic auto industry, says a report by the Innovation Centre for Energy and Transportation, a Chinese think-tank.
北京智库——能源与交通创新中心(Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation)发布的报告称，中国推出排放和燃效目标的主要动力是为了降低城镇空气污染，以及提升国内汽车行业的技术发展。
In order to push companies towards hitting fuel-economy targets, Beijing has begun to name and shame carmakers whose fleets are inefficient.
为了推动车企实现燃效目标，中国政府开始点名批评那些燃效低下的汽车制造商。
Twenty-two carmakers on the Chinese mainland — including joint ventures involving Sweden’s Volvo and Germany’s Mercedes-Benz, as well as big domestic brands such as BAIC Motors — failed to meet their passenger vehicle fuel economy targets for 2015, according to a report released last month by China’s ministry of information technology.
中国工业和信息化部上月发布的报告显示，中国内地的22家汽车制造商——包括瑞典沃尔沃(Volvo)和德国梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)与中国车企成立的合资企业，以及北汽(BAIC Motor)等国内大型品牌——没有达到2015年的乘用车燃效目标。
No public action has been taken against non-compliant companies. But overall, the report by the ministry of information and technology found the fuel economy of Chinese carmakers’ fleets dropped 0.9 per cent last year, while those of international brands increased 3.1 per cent.
中国没有公开对未达标车企采取任何举措。但整体而言，中国工业和信息化部在报告中表示，中国汽车制造商各车型的汽车燃效去年下降0.9%，而国际品牌的燃效上升了3.1%。
The fuel consumption target for each carmaker’s fleet in 2015 was for vehicles on average to travel 100km on 6.9 litres of fuel. But the average fuel required for domestic and overseas carmakers’ vehicles was 7.04 litres last year. By 2020, the Chinese government wants that figure to fall to 5 litres.
2015年中国乘用车百公里平均燃料消耗量的目标为6.9升，但国内外汽车制造商的汽车去年的平均耗油量是7.04升。中国政府希望到2020年将百公里耗油量降至5升。
To try and avoid penalties for non-compliance with China’s fuel economy rules, carmakers are starting to change the composition of their Chinese fleets by bringing in electric vehicles. They are also looking to introduce more so-called hybrid vehicles, which have a combination of a combustion engine and electric power.
为了避免因未达到中国燃效标准而被罚款，汽车制造商开始推出电动汽车，改变它们在中国市场上的车型结构。它们还在考虑推出更多所谓的混合动力车，即既有内燃机，又有电力动力的汽车。
Japanese carmakers including Toyota have already begun to establish factories to produce hybrid vehicles in China.
包括丰田(Toyota)在内的日本汽车制造商已开始在中国建设工厂以生产混合动力车。
This tactic may be less helpful for domestic carmakers as the numbers of electric vehicles they would need to sell in order meet the fuel economy targets is unrealistically high, says Yale Zhang, analyst at Automotive Insight, a consultancy.
咨询公司Automotive Insight的分析师张豫(Yale Zhang)表示，这种策略对国内汽车制造商可能不怎么有用，因为它们为实现燃效目标而需要销售的电动汽车数量高得不切实际。
“Right now it looks like no Chinese automakers can hit the targets unless they allocate about 20 to 25 per cent of their sales to new energy vehicles,” he adds. “No one is ready to hit that kind of level by 2020,” he added.
他补充称：“现在看起来没有一家中国汽车制造商能够达标，除非它们将新能源汽车的销量比例提高至20%至25%。没有一家能够在2020年达到那种水平。”
Meanwhile, China is preparing to introduce a new set of emissions testing standards, with tougher limits on exhaust gases such as nitrogen oxides, which cause respiratory diseases.
与此同时，中国正准备推出一套新的排放测试标准，更严格地限制氮氧化物等尾气的排放——氮氧化物等尾气会引发呼吸系统的疾病。
The so-called Beijing 6 rules that are due to take effect in 2018 will be an adapted version of US emissions standards, and should take a harder line than the EU on nitrogen oxides, which are generated by both petrol and diesel engines.
将于2018年生效的所谓的“京VI”排放标准将是美国排放标准的改编版本，在氮氧化物排放标准上比欧盟更为严格。汽油和柴油发动机均会产生氮氧化物。
Analysts at Bernstein say the Chinese rules represent a “huge challenge for industry profits”, estimating that meeting fuel economy targets alone will cost overseas carmakers Rmb5,000 to Rmb7,000 ($752 to $1,052) per vehicle sold between now and 2020.
伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)的分析师们表示，中国新版排放标准代表着“行业利润面临的巨大挑战”，他们估计，仅为实现相关燃效目标，海外车企就将为现在至2020年期间售出的每辆汽车多付出5000元至7000元人民币的成本（合752美元至1052美元）。
But for some domestic brands, whose fleets are increasingly made up of gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles, the cost of meeting the targets could be between Rmb10,000 and Rmb16,000 per car for the same period, they add.
但他们补充称，对一些高耗油运动型多功能车(SUV)销量占比越来越高的国内品牌来说，同期为达标而多付出的成本在每辆车1万元至1.6万元人民币之间。
Jaguar Land Rover said it was confident of meeting all its global emissions targets, including those in China.
捷豹路虎表示，该公司有信心实现所有全球排放目标，包括中国市场的目标。
Fujian Benz Automotive, a joint venture in China involving Daimler, Mercedes-Benz’s parent company, said it was “continuously working on optimising the energy consumption of our vehicles”.
奔驰母公司戴姆勒(Daimler)在中国建立的合资企业福建奔驰汽车(Fujian Benz Automotive)表示，该公司“持续致力于优化本公司汽车的能源消耗”。
Volvo did not respond to requests for comment. BAIC could not be reached.
沃尔沃没有回应记者的置评请求，记者联系不上北汽。
