更多的刺激对中国未必是好事

Pity Chinese policy makers. They must deal with an unbalanced economy in more ways than one. China’s population ranges from the millions of rural poor to hundreds of entrepreneurial billionaires, with an expanding middle class in between. Activity growth is still dependent on fixed asset investment, and consumers, in spite of the hordes of Chinese shoppers worldwide, are not spending enough at home. Efforts to stamp out corruption are not helping.

可怜的中国政策制定者们。他们得从不止一个方面应对不平衡的经济。中国人口中，既有数以百万计的农村贫困人口，也有数百个身价过亿的企业家，中间还有一批日益壮大的中产阶层。经济活动的增长仍依赖于固定资产投资，同时虽然全球都有中国购物者的身影，但他们在本国市场的消费不够。反腐败斗争也对提振消费没有帮助。

And so it was that last week Premier Li Keqiang hinted that the 2014 gross domestic product growth target of 7.5 per cent – once unthinkably low – might be missed. August data confirmed a slowdown in industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. Little is going right.

中国总理李克强上周暗示，2014年可能无法实现7.5%（一度被认为低得难以想象）的国内生产总值(GDP)增长目标。8月的数据证实了工业生产、零售销售和固定资产投资领域的放缓。几乎没有一项数据令人振奋。

On Wednesday the People’s Bank of China appeared to save the day. A report on , a Chinese portal, leaked news of the central bank’s move to inject Rmb500bn ($81bn) into the top five Chinese banks. The liquidity will be available for three months. Analysts expect that the loans will be rolled over – this move is the first of a new wave of stimulus measures. Hong Kong-listed H shares, after dropping 6 per cent since Mr Li’s cautious outlook, bounced 1.5 per cent in relief.

周三，中国人民银行似乎出台了措施，出手救市。中国门户网站新浪网()上的一篇报道透露，央行将向中国五大银行注入5000亿元人民币（合810亿美元）流动性，期限为3个月（中国人民银行拒绝证实此事——编者注）。分析者预计，这批贷款将被滚转——此举是新一轮刺激的首个动作。香港上市的H股在李克强发布谨慎的经济预测后下跌6%，现在如释重负反弹1.5%。

But in spite of this joyful jump from financial instruments, more stimulus is not necessarily a good thing for China. It perpetuates the reliance on low-grade means of pumping up growth. And it is not sustainable. China wants markets to play a more decisive role in the economy. It knows that freer markets are necessary to aid rebalancing.

然而，虽然金融工具出现喜人涨势，更多的刺激对中国未必是好事。它延续了对促进经济增长的低质量手段的依赖，而且是不可持续的。中国希望市场在经济中扮演更为决定性的角色。它知道更自由的市场对推动再平衡是必要的。

So maybe the market is wrong. In two weeks, China celebrates national holidays. Its citizens get on the road for one of the largest annual human migrations. Shops have Golden Week sales. The demand for cash jumps. So the PBOC’s move may just be as short-term as the three-month tenor implies. Craftily, with this manoeuvre, China does not need to commit either way.

也许市场反应是错的。两周后，中国将迎来国庆假期。中国人将踏上路途，进行每年最壮观的人类迁徙之一。商店将展开黄金周促销活动。对现金的需求猛增。所以，中国央行此举可能是临时性的，就像3个月期限所暗示的那样。中国官方此举巧妙避免了在刺激和不刺激之间的任何一方面作出承诺。