Lex经济报告: 台湾,泰国与退QE后的亚洲

Exports, or a nascent middle class? One is the age-old path to prosperity in Asia; the other has produced stunning returns in the past five years. But a look at the diverging performances of Taiwan and Thailand – exponents of the former and latter approaches respectively – suggests a return to the former is under way.

发展出口，还是培养新兴的中产阶级？前者是亚洲奉行已久的繁荣之路，后者则在过去五年中产生了惊人的回报。但考察分别作为两种发展模式典型的台湾和泰国，两者不同的经济表现说明，前一种发展模式即将收获回报。

It is not always easy to say which came first: the money, or the investing theme. Cheap US funds in search of higher returns certainly found an easy home in southeast Asia, notably Thailand, where the credit the dollars provided lifted growth and helped fuel a consumer boom (and worrying levels of household debt). Backing Thailand’s benchmark SET index five years ago has produced a total return of about 270 per cent. Over that same time, Taiwan’s TWSE has offered just a quarter of that. Yet emerging Asia gets about two-fifths of its economic growth from exports – a higher proportion than emerging Europe (a third) or Latin America (a fifth). And since the Federal Reserve introduced the concept of tapering in May, Taiwan and its export rival South Korea are up almost a tenth respectively while Bangkok and Jakarta, another easy money success story, are off as much as 7 per cent.

资金和投资主题哪个率先到来并不总是那么容易能说清楚。寻求更高回报率的廉价美国资金无疑在东南亚(尤其是泰国)找到了安乐窝；美元提供的信贷资金促进了泰国的经济增长，并激起了一轮消费热潮，当然同时也使泰国家庭负债达到了令人担忧的水平。如果五年前买入泰国基准股指SET指数，那么目前的总收益率将达到约270%。同期台湾股市收益率仅为泰国的四分之一。但亚洲新兴经济体约有五分之二的经济增长来自出口——该比例高于欧洲新兴经济体（三分之一）和拉美国家（五分之一）。自美联储(Fed)今年5月暗示缩减量化宽松规模以来，台湾及其出口竞争对手韩国的股市分别上涨了近10%，而泰国和印度尼西亚股市则下跌了7%。印度尼西亚也是一个依靠廉价资金实现经济发展的国家。

Betting on north Asia’s exporters over consumers in the southeast suggests strong investor faith in the Fed’s ability to smoothly withdraw its cheap money without stunting a pick-up in the global economy. Generally, economic growth of about 7 per cent in Asia implies earnings will rise about a tenth in the next year, according to Nomura, which expects the region to grow 7.2 per cent. Thailand and Indonesia would of course also benefit from this. But there is only room for so many successful strategies. The shift in the past few months suggests markets have moved on to the next chapter in the Asian story.

投资者更愿意押注于北亚的出口商而不是东南亚的消费者，这表明，投资者强烈相信美联储将会在不影响全球经济复苏的情况下平稳回收廉价资金。野村(Nomura)指出，总的来说，亚洲约7%的经济增长率意味着明年亚洲企业的盈利将增长约十分之一。野村预计明年亚洲地区的经济增长率将达到7.2%。泰国和印度尼西亚当然也将从中受益。但面对如此之多的成功策略，市场空间却是有限的。过去几个月的形势变化表明，市场已经进入了亚洲故事的下一个章节。