中国劳动力市场进一步收紧

Job cuts in China appear to be on the rise, dimming prospects for a labor market that has been a resilient bright spot amid a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

在中国，裁员的数量正在增多，令劳动力市场的前景变得黯淡。在中国这个世界第二大经济体的增长放缓之际，劳动力市场曾一直是一个抗冲击能力很强的亮点。

The latest sign came on Thursday, when preliminary gauges of August factory activity and hiring showed continued weakness. The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dipped to 47.8 for August from July's 49.3, continuing a 10-month string of results below the 50 level that separates growth from contraction.

周四出现了最新迹象，衡量8月份工厂活动和雇佣情况的预览值显示劳动力市场持续低迷。8月份汇丰中国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)从7月的49.3降至47.8，延续了10个月来低于50的走势。PMI值高于50表示经济扩张，低于50表示经济收缩。

Behind weak activity: a slowdown in trade and shrinking real-estate investment. China's exports grew just 1% in the year to July, and exports from coastal hot spots such as the city of Shanghai and the provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang contracted.

制造业活动低迷背后的原因在于，贸易增长放缓和房地产投资收缩。今年年初至7月份，中国出口仅增长了1%，上海、江苏和浙江等沿海热点省市的出口出现下滑。

Meanwhile, an August reading of 47.7 in the PMI survey's employment subindex, unchanged from July, shows firms shedding workers for the sixth consecutive month.

此外，8月份汇丰PMI分类指数中的就业指数为47.7，与7月份持平，表明企业连续第六个月裁减人员。

The results follow sporadic reports of job cuts in some parts of the country.

这一结果发布之前，有零星报道说中国一些地区削减了工作岗位。

'Anecdotal evidence suggests that an increasing number of coastal enterprises are laying off workers or closing down factories,' HSBC economists said in a note. 'It is time for Beijing to focus more squarely on the job market.'

汇丰的经济学家在一份报告中说，有证据表明，越来越多的沿海企业开始裁员或关闭工厂；现在是北京更加密切地关注就业市场的时候了。

There are also some signs that labor unrest is on the rise. China Labour Bulletin, a nongovernmental organization that tracks collective action by Chinese workers, recorded 37 incidences of worker strikes and protests in July, roughly double the number in January, with more actions over unpaid wages.

也有一些迹象表明，罢工数量有所上升。专门追踪中国工人集体行动的非政府组织中国劳工通讯(China Labour Bulletin)的记录表明，7月份中国共发生了37次罢工和抗议活动，这一数字大约是今年1月份的两倍。因讨薪而发起的活动数量有所增加。

Third-quarter economic data so far suggest China's first-half slowdown is continuing, increasing pressure on policy makers to increase lending or boost government spending to rekindle growth.

三季度迄今为止发布的经济数据表明，中国上半年经济放缓的趋势仍将继续，这加大了决策者增加贷款数量或增加政府开支以重新拉动经济增长的压力。

Judging the true state of China's labor market is difficult. So far the weakness appears to be well short of the job losses that followed the global financial crisis, which saw as many as 20 million unemployed migrant workers head back to their home towns--a major factor in prompting a massive stimulus spending program by Beijing.

想要评估中国劳动力市场的真实状况并不容易。到目前为止失业人数远低于全球金融危机过后的水平。金融危机过后，多达2,000万失业农民工返回老家。这是促使中国政府当年推出大规模刺激性支出计划的主要原因。

Other gauges suggest many firms are still hiring, albeit it at a slower pace.

从其它指标看，很多企业仍在招聘，不过速度已有所放慢。

At a government labor exchange in the center of Beijing on Thursday, there was little sign of anxiety among those looking for work. Lin Wei, a recent graduate from China University of Petroleum, was looking for a first job in civil engineering. 'I have only been looking for a week but there seems to be a number of opportunities,' she said.

周四在北京市中心一个由政府举办的招聘会上，几乎看不出求职者有任何焦虑。中国石油大学(China University of Petroleum)的应届毕业生林薇(音)想找一份与土木工程相关的工作，这将是她的第一份工作。她说，我只找了一个星期，但是似乎已经有一些工作机会了。

Song Guibo, a human-resources manager at Vanke Management Services, was at the exchange to fill vacancies for security guards, receptionists, and cleaners. His main complaint was a shortage of workers. 'We mainly employ migrant workers, and they can get higher wages in the provinces now, so not so many are coming to Beijing' said Mr. Song.

北京万科物业服务有限公司(Beijing Vanke Property Service Co. Ltd.)的人力资源经理宋贵波在招聘会上招聘保安、接待员和清洁工。他最大的苦衷是招不到人。宋贵波说，我们主要招聘外来务工人员，而这些人在各个省份都能拿到比以往更高的工资，所以没那么多人来北京了。

The Chinese government publishes numbers on unemployment, which shows the rate at 4.1% in the second quarter, unchanged from the end of 2010. But economists widely regard the figure as unreliable, partly because it does not measure joblessness among migrant workers.

中国政府公布的失业统计数据显示，第二季度的失业率为4.1%，与2010年底持平。但是经济学家普遍认为这个数字不可靠，部分原因是数据没有反映外来务工人员的失业情况。

Analysts say that unemployment may lag changes in the economy. A new labor law, which came into force in 2008 and makes it costly to fire workers, and concern about a shortage of workers when growth picks up mean firms are reluctant to let workers go.

分析人士说，就业状况可能会滞后于经济形势的变化。2008年生效的新劳动法提高了雇主解雇劳动者的成本，同时雇主也担心如果经济形势好转企业会出现人手不足的问题，这些因素意味着企业不愿意让员工离开。

A shoe-factory owner in the eastern city of Wenzhou who gave his name as Mr. Mao said that new labor regulations make it difficult for him to lay off any of his 800 workers. 'We don't fire them, they fire us,' he said, referring to a practice in which migrant workers hop between factories based on where orders and wages were strongest.

中国东部城市温州的一位自称姓毛的鞋厂厂主说，由于新劳动法的出台，他很难解雇800名员工中的任何一个。他说，不是我炒他们，是他们炒我。他指的是外来务工人员经常跳槽到订单更多和工资更高的工厂。

'The problem with the generation of workers born after the 1980s is that they are not able to eat bitterness,' he said. 'They are not as hard working as their parents.'

他说，80后这一代工人身上存在的问题是，他们不能吃苦。他们不像他们父母那一辈工作那么努力。

Chen Shao, China analyst at Macquarie, says that factory owners he visited on a recent trip to Fujian were hanging on to workers to avoid losing face. 'They don't want to signal to competitors or creditors that they are in difficulty,' he said.

麦格理证券(Macquarie)中国分析师Chen Shao说，他最近去福建旅行期间见到的工厂厂主都尽可能地不让工人跳槽，为的是不让自己丢面子。他们不想让竞争者或债权人知道他们遇到了困难。

Guo Sheng, the chief executive officer of recruitment website , said that growth in the number of jobs advertised on the website had slowed sharply, from 77% growth in 2011 to 17% growth in 2012. 'The bad news is that growth in job opportunities has slowed, the good news is there is still growth,' he said.

招聘网站智联招聘()的首席执行长郭盛说，其网站上所发布工作机会的增速正在急剧放缓，从2011年的77%下降到了2012年的17%。他说，坏消息是工作机会的增长在放慢，好消息是工作机会仍在增多。

He also sees signs that the slowdown in China's growth was denting wage increases. 'At the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012 wages were rising at around 15% to 20% a year,' he said. 'From the second quarter we are seeing slowing growth and falling inflation reducing wage increases.'

郭盛还看到了中国经济增速放缓影响工资增长的迹象。他说，2011年末和2012年初，劳动者工资水平在以每年15%到20%左右的速度增长。从今年第二季度开始，我们看到，经济增速放缓和通胀水平下降正在导致工资增长速度降低。