股市看点:苹果的股票如何"保鲜"?

Apple's shares are famously, and somewhat mysteriously, cheap. The company has doubled its earnings per share over the past year but the stock has a below-market valuation. The discount may have to do with consumer technology companies' tendency to enjoy rapid rises and equally fast declines.

苹果(Apple)的股票（在某种程度上很蹊跷地）便宜得出名。该公司每股盈利在过去一年翻了一番，但股价估值却仍低于市场平均水平。该折价可能与消费者科技公司倾向于大起大落的趋势有关。

But one Apple product line seems eternally young: Macintosh computers. Thirty years on, it is still growing. Annual revenue has reached $23bn. Computer prices always drop but Macs drop the slowest. Unit sales are marching up. Contrast the product that sparked Apple's renaissance: the iPod. Apple has protected its price but volumes are now in steady decline.

但有一个苹果的产品线似乎永远年轻：Mac电脑。30年来一直在增长。年营收已达230亿美元。电脑价格一直在下降，但Mac电脑下降得最慢。销量正稳步上升。形成反差的是，曾引发苹果复兴的产品：iPod。苹果已对其实施价格保护，但销量持续下降。

One might sum up the debate about Apple's prospects and valuation like this: will the iPhone and the iPad (two-thirds of Apple's sales) drink from the fountain of youth, as the Mac has, or prove mortal, like the iPod? Admittedly, Apple has not lost iPod customers, but upgraded them to pricier iPhones. But it is not written that this upgrade pattern is repeatable.

人们可能会将有关苹果公司前景和估值的辩论总结为：苹果iPhone手机和iPad平板电脑（占苹果销售的三分之二）能否像Mac电脑一样，饮取青春不老之泉；还是像iPod那样终会老去？诚然，苹果公司并未失去iPod用户，而是让他们升级为昂贵的iPhone用户。但这种升级模式能否复制，却没有定数。

What gives the Mac line legs? Computers have a slow replacement cycle, making it easier to justify buying a premium product such as a Mac. More important, users get dug in with operating systems, so it is costly to switch.

是什么让Mac产品线长了腿？电脑的更换周期比较缓慢，这更容易让人有理由购买像Mac这样的高端产品。更重要的是，用户一旦熟悉此套操作系统，更换别的就代价高昂了。

The trick is to increase switching costs. It used to be that iTunes kept users where their music was. But now Apple, Google, Amazonand others offer cloud storage services and ways to move files from others' platforms. A strategy of ever-tightening integration between one company's devices may be more promising. If your PC, tablet, phone or whatever is an interoperative bundle, you will tend to replace it with one of the same make (and keep using the services from that manufacturer). Apple is nearly there but it will need to keep pressing: Googlejust rolled out a tablet and home media hub, and made much of how well they work together.

关键就是要增加更换成本。以前是由iTunes来保管用户的音乐文档，但现在苹果、谷歌(Google)、亚马逊(Amazon)和其它公司都提供云存储服务，以及从其他平台转移文档的方式。不断加深同一公司各个设备之间整合度的策略，可能更有前途。如果你的个人电脑、平板电脑、电话和其他什么设备，都属于一个可以互操作的整体，你会更倾向于将它们换成同一生产商的设备（并继续使用这个生产商的服务）。苹果几乎已做到了这一点，但仍需继续推进：谷歌刚刚推出平板电脑和家庭媒体中心，并在两者配合默契方面大做文章。