债务增长推动中国资产管理业改革

China’s top regulators unveiled radical reforms for the country’s asset management industry this month, in a push by the government to defuse the investment risks accumulating across the Asian giant’s financial system.

上月，中国顶级监管机构宣布了对国内资产管理行业的激进改革。中国政府正在努力化解这个亚洲巨人的金融体系中不断积累的投资风险。

The reforms, which are also designed to improve standards of investor protection and to set the asset management industry on a sustainable growth path, follow huge increases in debt and leverage that threaten the sustainability of the Chinese economy.

《关于规范金融机构资产管理业务的指导意见（征求意见稿）》也是为了提高投资者保护标准，并让资管行业进入可持续增长的轨道。此前，债务水平和杠杆水平大幅升高，对中国经济发展的可持续性构成了威胁。

Retail investors in China have been ploughing money into lightly regulated or unregulated wealth management products that offer higher yields than bank deposits.

中国的散户投资者近年买入监管很少或不受监管的理财产品，这些产品的收益率高于银行存款。

These wealth management products are issued by banks, insurance companies and other financial groups that are supervised by different regulators, which has led to massive growth in so-called non-standard credit assets or the shadow banking sector.

这些理财产品的发行者是受到不同监管机构监管的银行、保险公司和其他金融集团。这导致了所谓非标信贷资产或者影子银行业的大幅增长。

David Yin, a senior analyst at Moody’s, the credit rating agency, in Hong Kong, says, historically, financial companies were able to circumvent restrictions on their activities under the previous regime. But he says this should no longer be possible under new rules that will create a unified regulatory framework covering all asset management products for the first time.

信用评级机构穆迪(Moody's)驻香港资深分析师David Yin表示，传统上，金融企业在以往的体制下能够绕过针对它们行为的限制措施。但他表示，在新规下，这种情况应当不再可能——新规将首次打造一个覆盖所有资产管理产品的统一监管框架。

“The guidelines classify asset management products by their fundraising method (public or private) and their investment scope, and will subject them to uniform requirements so as to reduce regulatory arbitrage,” says Mr Yin.

“这些指导意见根据资管产品的融资渠道（公开或私下）和投资范围对其进行分类，并让它们符合统一的要求，从而减少监管套利，”David Yin说。

Asset managers will have to clearly distinguish products offered for sale to the general public from products marketed to qualified investors that meet minimum income and wealth thresholds. Products sold by private placement to qualified investors can invest in unlisted securities but products sold to ordinary retail investors must invest mainly in low-risk, highly liquid equity and fixed-income assets.

资产管理公司将不得不明确区分两类产品，一类是对大众销售的产品，另一类的营销对象是达到一定收入和财富门槛的合格投资者。以私募方式向合格投资者出售的产品，可以投资于未上市证券，但出售给普通散户投资者的产品必须主要投资于风险低、流动性高的股票和固定收益产品。

“The [new] guidelines will close many regulatory loopholes while leaving room for the orderly and sustainable growth of China’s asset management business,” says Lan Shen, an economist at Standard Chartered bank in Shanghai.

“（新）指导意见将关上许多监管漏洞，同时也为中国资管业务的有序、可持续增长留下空间，”渣打银行(Standard Chartered)驻上海经济学家申岚说。

New leverage limits will also be applied, with a debt ratio (measured as total assets divided by net assets) set at 140 per cent for products sold to retail investors and at 200 per cent for products sold privately to qualified investors.

中国也将实施新的杠杆率上限，出售给散户投资者的产品的负债比例（总资产/净资产）上限定为140%，通过私募方式出售给合格投资者的产品的负债比例上限为200%。

The asset minimum for qualified investors has been increased from Rmb3m ($454,000) to Rmb5m ($756,000).

合格投资者的资产门槛已从300万元人民币（合45.4万美元）提高至500万元人民币（合75.6万美元）。

Another important development is a prohibition on asset managers offering “no loss” principal protection products or promising a guaranteed rate of return. Asset managers will also be required to set aside 10 per cent of any management fees they collect as provision for potential losses.

另一项重要变化是，禁止资产管理公司提供“不亏损的”保本产品，或承诺有保障的收益。资产管理公司还将被要求把所收管理费的10%作为风险准备金。

“The new rules are likely to contain financial risks, curb excessive credit growth and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy,” says Mr Shen.

“新规有望遏制金融风险，遏制信贷过度增长，并提高货币政策的有效性，”申岚说。

Asset managers will also be encouraged to invest in priority projects, such as the Belt and Road initiative, a vast infrastructure plan to connect China with other countries in order to boost trade, as well as regional development plans. Financial institutions have been given until June 2019 to comply with the new rules.

资产管理公司还将被鼓励投资于优先项目，比如“一带一路”这个旨在联接中国和其他国家以提振贸易的庞大基建计划，以及地区开发计划。金融机构被要求在2019年6月之前满足新规的要求。

Daniel Celeghin, head of wealth management strategy for the Asia-Pacific region at Casey Quirk, the consultancy, says the new rules could mean a “huge hit” to the revenues of Chinese trust companies, so there is likely to be some resistance during the current consultation period with regulators, which runs until mid-December.

咨询公司Casey Quirk的亚太区财富管理策略主管Daniel Celeghin表示，新规对中国信托公司的收入可能构成“巨大冲击”，所以在当前的监管机构征求意见期（截止12月中旬）可能会遭到一定的抵制。

Beijing also announced this month that China plans to relax or eliminate foreign ownership limits in Chinese financial services groups, including asset managers.

北京方面本月还宣布，中国打算放宽或取消外资在中国金融服务集团（包括资产管理公司）所持股份的比例限制。

Foreign companies will be allowed to own 100 per cent of a domestic fund management company by 2020.

到2020年，外企将被允许持有中国国内基金管理公司100%的股权。

Stewart Aldcroft, Asia chief executive of CitiTrust, the securities and fund services arm of Citigroup, the US bank, says this change, along with the new regulatory framework, could “completely transform” financial services businesses in China.

花旗集团(Citigroup)旗下证券与基金服务机构CitiTrust的亚洲首席执行官斯图尔特?奥尔德克罗夫特(Stewart Aldcroft)说，这一变化，加上新的监管框架，可能“完全转变”中国的金融服务业。

“This is without doubt the development that the major global players have been looking for, to control and own their own businesses in China,” says Mr Aldcroft.

“这无疑是业内的全球主要参与者一直在期盼的发展，即在中国控制并拥有自己的业务，”奥尔德克罗夫特说。

Casey Quirk is forecasting that assets under management in China’s investment industry will grow to around $17tn by 2030, helped by the rising wealth of the middle class and the expansion of workplace retirement saving schemes.

Casey Quirk预测，在中产阶层财富增加和工作单位退休储蓄计划扩大的推动下，到2030年中国投资行业管理的资产将增至约17万亿美元。

Around half ($8.5tn) of the net new inflows attracted by investment managers globally by 2030 will go to Chinese companies, helping the country to become the world’s second-largest asset management market behind the US.

到2030年，全球投资管理公司吸引的资金净流入量中，大约一半（8.5万亿美元）将流向中国公司，推动中国成为世界第二大资产管理市场，仅次于美国。

This growth presents a potentially huge prize for foreign companies. But Mr Celeghin cautions that it remains unclear just how large a role Chinese regulators will allow foreign managers to play.

这种增长为外资公司提供了潜在巨大的回报。但Celeghin告诫称，尚不清楚中国监管层将允许境外资产管理公司发挥多大作用。

He notes that the liberalisation of Japan’s investment markets has led to a decline in the share of the fee pool going to domestic managers over the past decade. China will instead look to the example of the US, where league-ranking tables remain dominated by local companies.

他指出，日本对投资市场放开管制后，过去10年里国内资产管理公司在收费总额中的占比有所降低。相反，中国将效仿美国——占据美国管理费排行榜主导地位的仍是国内公司。

“China likes the US model. It wants to see more competition. But it also wants to make sure that its own players win,” says Mr Celeghin.

“中国喜欢美国模式。中国想看到更激烈的竞争，但也想确保本国企业胜出，”Celeghin说。

He adds that even if foreign managers believe they can offer better-quality investment products at lower fees, they will struggle to match domestic Chinese managers’ capacity and willingness to send teams of senior staff to help local distributors to meet client needs.

他接着说，尽管境外资产管理公司认为它们能以更低管理费提供质量更好的投资产品，但在派出资深员工团队帮助当地经销商满足客户需求的能力和意愿方面，它们仍将难以媲美中国资产管理公司。

Other long-time Beijing watchers remain sceptical about the government’s willingness to encourage greater participation by foreigners in China’s financial industry.

其他长期观察中国的人士仍对中国政府是否愿意鼓励外资更深参与中国金融业表示怀疑。

“The financial commanding heights will not be ceded to foreigners,” says George Magnus, an associate at Oxford university’s China Centre.

“金融制高点将不会让给外国公司，”牛津大学(Oxford University)中国中心(China Centre)研究员乔治?马格纳斯(George Magnus)说。