日俄峰会幕后 日担心俄更加倒向中国

Japanese and Russian officials have been working for almost three years to organise a meaningful meeting between their leaders. But with the stakes high for both as Vladimir Putin prepares to host Shinzo Abe in the Black Sea resort of Sochi on Friday, Moscow is already lowering expectations of progress on the issue that matters to Tokyo the most.

近三年来，日本和俄罗斯官员一直在为组织一次意义重大的两国领导人峰会而努力。但由于对双方而言事关重大，所以当弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)准备周五在黑海度假胜地索契(Sochi)会见安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)之际，莫斯科方面已开始降低在对东京方面最重要的问题上取得进展的预期。

At the top of the agenda is a long-running dispute over the group of islands Russia calls the Kuriles and Japan the Northern Territories. But “it is hardly possible to expect imminent and serious progress” on resolving it, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Russian president, warned.

会谈议程中的最重要议题是两国长期以来对一系列岛屿的争端——俄罗斯称之为库页岛(Kuriles)，日本称之为北方领土(Northern Territories)。但是，“期望在解决该问题上很快取得重大进展几乎是不可能的，”普京发言人德米特里•巴斯科夫(Dmitry Peskov)警告称。

Dmitry Trenin, head of the Carnegie Moscow Center， sees Japan as a casualty of Russia’s pivot to China, which he says has put Russia on a trajectory to ever-greater dependency on Beijing while failing to give other Asian powers enough attention.

卡内基莫斯科中心(Carnegie Moscow Center)主任德米特里•特列宁(Dmitri Trenin)认为，日本是俄罗斯倒向中国政策的受害者。他表示，这一政策得俄罗斯走上了一条对北京方面日益依赖的道路，对亚洲其他大国未能给予足够重视。

The Japanese prime minister is all too aware of that. Mr Abe is currently on a whistle-stop tour of Europe, visiting Italy, France, Germany and the UK, before he chairs the G7 meeting in Ise-Shima at the end of the month.

日本首相对此非常清醒。安倍晋三目前正在进行走马观花式的欧洲之行，访问意大利、法国、德国和英国。然后，他将于本月底在伊势志摩(Ise-Shima)主持七国集团(G7)会议。

But his meeting with Mr Putin is diplomatically more important. Mr Abe’s eagerness to meet Mr Putin is founded in the geopolitical threat to Japan from China, say people close to the prime minister. His fear is that an isolated Russia will draw ever closer to Beijing. Given other territorial disputes, such as China’s claim to what Japan calls the Senkaku islands and China the Diaoyu, Japan can ill-afford to have its two giant neighbours unite against it.

但是，他与普京会面在外交方面具有更重要的意义。据接近这位首相的人士表示，安倍晋三急于跟普京会面，原因在于中国在地缘政治方面对日本构成的压力。他担心，被孤立的俄罗斯将向中国靠得更近。鉴于其他领土争端，比如中国对于日本称之为尖阁诸岛(Senkaku Islands)、中国称之为“钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿(Diaoyu)”的系列岛屿的主权要求，日本无法承受两大邻国共同反对自己的后果。

Mr Abe has been eager for a proper Japan-Russia summit rather than brief chats on the sidelines of international meetings, says one official close to him. Braving the displeasure of the US amid tensions over Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Mr Abe wants the Russian leader to visit Tokyo within the year.

一名接近安倍晋三的官员说，他一直非常希望召开一次适当的日俄峰会，而不是两国领导人在国际会议的间隙进行简短交谈。安倍晋三大胆面对美国对俄罗斯吞并克里米亚(Crimea)的不满，希望普京能在今年年底访问东京。

The issue that looms over Russo-Japanese relations is four disputed islands in the Kurile chain, seized by the Soviet Union in the final days of the second world war. The dispute means the two countries never signed a peace treaty.

二战最后时期被苏联占领的库页群岛中的四个争议岛屿，是影响俄日关系的问题所在。该争议导致两国之间从未签署一项和平条约。

Many Russian officials and analysts say that seeking a counterbalance to Moscow’s ever-closer alliance with China would be beneficial for Russia as well. “A country that refused to be a junior partner of the US can’t find it in its interest to become a tributary of a Chinese great power,” says Mr Trenin. “Japan and other countries with whom relations are stalling are unused reserves of Russian foreign policy.”

许多俄罗斯官员和分析人士表示，在俄罗斯与中国之间的联盟关系日益紧密之际，寻找一种平衡，对俄罗斯本身也将是有益的。“一个拒绝成为美国小伙伴的国家会发现，成为强大中国的附属国是不符合自身利益的，”特列宁说。“俄罗斯与日本和其他国家的关系停滞不前，而这些国家正是俄罗斯在外交政策方面未曾使用的储备。”

But there are few economic or political opportunities to develop this reserve with Tokyo. Russian officials say Japan is a partner of choice for the transfer of high technology to Russia, and Moscow also looks to its eastern neighbour as a potential market for Russian agricultural and fisheries products.

但是，俄罗斯并没有多少经济或政治机会和日本一同开发这些储备。俄罗斯官员说，日本是对俄转让高技术的首选伙伴；俄罗斯也把这个东方邻国看成本国农业、渔业产品的一个潜在市场。

But in an era of low prices for the natural resources that form the lion’s share of Russia’s exports, such broader exchanges are slow to get off the ground.

但在构成俄罗斯出口主体的自然资源价格低迷的时代，这些经贸交流进展得很缓慢。