分析师称中国钢价回升后劲不足

A rise in Chinese steel prices has been read by some local mills as a sign of budding recovery fed by the country’s seemingly stabilising economy.

中国钢铁价格上涨，这被国内一些钢厂解读为中国似乎正在企稳的经济促使钢铁行业出现复苏苗头的迹象。

However, some analysts believe the fall in domestic demand will ultimately haul back prices as prospects of significant new investment in China’s main steel-intensive industries remains poor.

然而，一些分析师认为，国内需求下降最终将拉低价格，因为中国各大钢铁密集型行业出现大规模新投资的前景依然渺茫。

Whether its steelmakers can stage an orderly recovery is critical for a global market buffeted last year by 20 per cent year-on-year growth in cheap Chinese exports. Negative margins meant losses for steelmakers worldwide, including Tata Steel, whose decision to pull out of its British operations has put the future of UK steel production into question.

对去年因中国廉价钢铁出口同比增长20%而遭受重创的全球市场而言，中国钢铁制造商能否实现有序复苏至关重要。负利润率意味着世界各地的钢铁制造商亏损，包括塔塔钢铁(Tata Steel)，其关闭英国工厂的决定令人质疑英国钢铁生产的未来。

Chinese mills began restocking last month as a seasonal pick-up in demand combined with surging real estate prices in top tier cities to send a wave of positive sentiment through the industry.

中国钢厂上月开始扩充库存。季节性需求上升，再加上一线城市房价飙升，向钢铁行业传递了一波积极情绪。

The average price for steel products across the country pushed above Rmb2,700 per tonne last week — a price last reached more than a year ago, before the rout, according to My–, a price tracking website. The price has recovered from below Rmb1,800 per tonne late last year, according to the website.

价格追踪网站“我的钢铁网”()的数据显示，中国钢材均价上周涨至每吨2700元人民币以上，上次达到这个价位还是一年多前，当时钢价还没有开始暴跌。根据该网站的数据，钢价是从去年年末不到每吨1800元人民币的低点涨上来的。

But the recovery is unlikely to last, according to Tomas Gutierrez at Kallanish Commodities, speaking at the recent Steel Home conference in Shanghai.

但Kallanish Commodities的托马斯•古铁雷斯(Tomas Gutierrez)在钢之家(Steelhome)最近在上海举办的会议上表示，此轮复苏不太可能持续。

“Restricting supply to traders and keeping low inventories has helped push prices up but this doesn’t stop overall demand from falling,” he said.

他说：“限制对贸易商的供应并保持低库存有助于推升价格，但这不会阻止整体需求下降。”

Government stimulus of the housing market has fuelled increased investment by some developers but mostly this goes into refurbishment in first tier cities, which uses little steel.

政府出台的住房市场刺激措施引发一些开发商增加投资，但这种投资大多投向一线城市的翻新工程，很少用到钢铁。

If Chinese macro figures due this week are positive, the monetary easing that has fuelled the home prices recovery may slow, according to Shao Chen, an analyst at Macquarie. Without new significant investment in housebuilding, the likelihood of a long-term recovery in Chinese steel prices is low, he said.

麦格理(Macquarie)分析师邵辰表示，如果中国本周发布的宏观数据是积极的，那么助推房价回升的货币宽松政策就会放缓。他说，如果没有住房建设的大规模投资，中国钢铁价格长期回升的可能性很低。

Of other sectors that might take up some of the slack, only infrastructure and the vehicle industry are predicted to see significant growth in investment in 2016 — and the latter still uses large amounts of imported steel.

在其他一些可能填补需求缺口的行业中，人们预计只有基础设施和汽车业将在2016年大规模增加投资，而后者仍使用大量的进口钢材。

Falling Chinese steel demand helped global prices slide last year as mills in China cut prices and increased exports to try to rid themselves of nearly 200m tonnes of product unneeded at home.

中国钢铁需求下降促使去年全球价格下跌，因为中国钢厂降价并增加出口以试图脱手国内不需要的近2亿吨钢材。