中国经济将遭遇"硬着陆"实属过分夸大
The Economist Intelligence Unit claimed China was set for a hard landing in its latest global risk analysis report. Closer inspection of the Chinese economy shows that to be a false alarm.
近日，经济学人智库在最新的全球风险分析报告指出，中国经济将遭遇“硬着陆”，但经过一番更加深入的调查发现这是一次错误的警报。The forecasting and advisory services provider issued a report on last Thursday in which it forecast the top risk for the global economy was a sharp economic slowdown in China, due to what it saw as the country's febrile manufacturing sector, rising debt and growing downward pressure on the renminbi due to capital flight.
这家风险咨询信息机构在上周四发表的一份报告中称，全球经济的最大风险来自于中国经济的急速下滑，这主要是由于中国国内过热的制造行业，负债不断增加以及来自人民币在资本市场的下行压力造成的。The think tank is right that the Chinese economy is experiencing headwinds, but this is hardly breaking news. The country's leadership has spoken at length about the challenges brought by the new normal growth rate and structural reform.
经济学人智库关于中国经济遭遇下滑压力的分析很正确，但这早已不是什么新闻了，中国的领导阶层已经详细地指出中国目前所面临着由新常态增长率和经济结构改革带来的挑战。
The manufacturing sector is struggling. Industrial investment is falling, the trade environment is worsening and overcapacity is weighing upon the sector. However, manufacturers are busy upgrading their systems and equipment, which will create a more competitive, innovative environment.
虽然中国的制造业陷入挣扎，也面临着行业投资降低、贸易环境恶化以及行业臃肿的进一步加剧，但是与此同时，中国的制造企业正致力于系统和设备的升级改造，以创造更加具有竞争力和创新力的行业环境。Yes, the debt level is not low, but it is still manageable. The capital adequacy ratio of China's commercial banks is still below the international warning line, while their provision coverage ratio is above the government's requirement. Moreover, local government debt pressure will be eased by public-private-partnerships in costly infrastructure projects.
中国如今的负债水平的确不低，但仍处于一个合理的范围内。虽然国内商业银行的资本充足率仍然低于国际规定的警戒线水平，但这主要是因为政府规定的资本充足率低于国际标准。此外，随着大型基建项目公私合办模式的推行，地方政府的财政压力将得到大大缓解。Some weakening of the Chinese yuan in the short term is understandable. China's forex controls have been loosened and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment will unavoidably lead to capital outflows. Nevertheless, there is no basis for substantial yuan depreciation as China's trade surplus and forex reserve are more than adequate and its foreign debt is low.
当今人民币在短期内处于弱势是可以理解的，中国放宽了对外汇交易市场的管控，美联储的利率调整也会导致难以避免的资本外流。尽管如此，考虑到中国的贸易顺差、充足的外汇储备以及低的负债水平，认为人民币将大大贬值是毫无根据的。However, the report is right about one thing: Other countries are dependent on China for investment and products. A sharp slowdown would have a severe knock-on effect worldwide and is a scenario that nobody wants to see.
但是，报告中也有合理的地方，由于许多国家依赖于中国的投资和商品，一旦中国经济遭遇骤降，这将会波及全球经济，那将是所有人不愿看到的。Despite the challenges, China is determined to keep GDP growth at a minimum of 6.5 percent this year while pressing ahead with economic restructuring.
尽管面对严峻的挑战和经济改革的压力，中国政府仍有信心保持6.5%的最低GDP增长率。
