中国违约几率有多大 China unprecedented times

Really large economies don’t go bust. The highest ranked economies to enter default, according to a Bank of Canada database, stood at around 10th: Brazil and Mexico in the 1980s, Russia in 1991. China, in contrast, has the biggest economy (on some measures) ever seen. Yet Moody’s is fretting and has marked down its outlook to “negative” from “stable”.

真正的大经济体是不会破产的。根据加拿大央行(Bank of Canada)的一个数据库，出现违约的国家中，规模排名最高的国家大约是第10位：上世纪80年代的巴西和墨西哥、1991年的俄罗斯。相比之下，中国（以某些标准衡量）经济是有史以来规模最大的。然而，穆迪(Moody’s)感到焦虑不安，将中国的评级展望从“稳定”下调至“负面”。

It is easy to scoff. China’s debts may be high but are denominated in renminbi, and its reserves are the largest anywhere. But everything about China is unprecedented: its size and recent growth, and the scale of its challenges. Moody’s cites large contingent liabilities to banks and local government, and the difficulty Beijing faces managing currency convertibility.

很容易对此嗤之以鼻。中国的债务可能很高，但其债务是以人民币计价的，而其外汇储备也是全世界最高的。但有关中国的一切都是史无前例的：规模和近年的增长，以及中国所面临的挑战的艰巨性。穆迪提到了银行和地方政府的巨额或有债务，以及北京方面管理货币可兑换性所面临的困难。

The odds against default are overwhelming. Still, landslides start with a single pebble. China’s Aa3 rating is associated with a 1 in 1,200 chance of default. In light of its challenges, this is no overestimate.

中国发生违约的几率极小。话虽如此，千里之堤毁于蚁穴。中国的Aa3评级和1200分之一的违约几率相关联。考虑到中国面临的挑战，这并不是过高的估计。