黄金重拾涨势 人气回暖

Investors are buying gold again.

投资者们又开始买入黄金了。

Gold is up 11% this year, and wagers on rising prices are at a four-month high in the futures market. This month, investors were net buyers of SPDR Gold Shares, the biggest exchange-traded fund that buys gold, for the first time since December 2012.

今年以来金价累计涨幅已达11%，黄金期货价格处于四个月高位。全球最大黄金交易所交易基金(ETF) SPDR Gold Shares本月出现了自2012年12月以来的首次资金 流入。

Gold has a long way to go to recover from last year's rout, the metal's worst annual performance in more than three decades. Gold futures ended Thursday at $1,331.60 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up slightly for the day but down 16% from a year ago.

在过去的2013年，黄金走出了30多年来的最差行情，黄金要彻底收复去年的失地仍有很长的路要走。周四纽约商品期货交易所(New York Mercantile Exchange) Comex分部的黄金期货收盘价报每盎司1,331.60美元，较前日微涨，但和一年前相比仍下跌了16%。

Some money managers are betting that the market hit bottom at the end of 2013. Risky assets that drew cash away from gold last year, including emerging-market stocks and bonds, are looking less appealing. Gold also is regaining its role as a hedge against inflation as some investors question the Federal Reserve's commitment to ending its economic stimulus.

一些基金经理押注黄金市场在2013年末已经触底。曾在去年吸引资金流出黄金市场的风险资产（包括新兴市场的股票和债券）现如今已不具昔日魅力。而随着一些投资者怀疑美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve, 简称：美联储)能否按期结束刺激计划，黄金对冲通胀风险的重要意义也就再度凸显出来。

'A reset needed to happen in gold,' said Michael Tiedemann, who manages $8.5 billion at Tiedemann Wealth Management in New York.

在纽约Tiedemann Wealth Management管理着85亿美元资产的蒂德曼(Michael Tiedemann)认为，黄金市场的盘整是必要的。

Like many investors, Mr. Tiedemann sold gold in December to lock in losses for tax purposes. However, he started buying SPDR Gold Shares to restore those positions in January and is recommending that new clients hold gold. He said he sees gold as a store of value should the Fed's stimulus policies trigger higher inflation or a weaker dollar.

和许多投资者一样，蒂德曼出于对税务因素的考量在去年12月抛售黄金以锁定损失。然而今年1月，他开始买入SPDR Gold Shares以增补仓位，并建议其新客户持有黄金。他说，如果美联储的经济刺激政策会推高通胀水平或拉低美元汇率的话，黄金可被用作为一种储值手段。

SPDR Gold Shares, known by its ticker symbol GLD, has added 10.54 metric tons to its gold holdings this month through Wednesday, boosting its total to 803.7 tons. Net inflows for the year total $255 million. Still, February's rise is dwarfed by last year's decline of 552.6 tons.

在本月截至周三，SPDR Gold Shares（代码GLD）的黄金持有量已增加10.54吨，总量达到803.7吨，今年 流入资金总额达2.55亿美元。不过2月的这一增长仍不不足以弥补去年减少的552.6吨黄金持有量。

Investors have had plenty of reason to buy gold in the past few months. Doubts about the financial stability of Turkey and Argentina, and fears of a default by Ukraine more recently, prompted some investors to seek safety in gold alongside the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds.

过去的几个月让投资者有充足的理由来买入黄金。土耳其和阿根廷金融稳定性令人怀疑，加上最近担心乌克兰违约，这些都促使一些投资者投向黄金、美元以及美国国债等资产以期避险。

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is underperforming, with indicators for employment, consumer confidence and manufacturing coming in below expectations in recent weeks.

与此同时美国经济亦表现欠佳，近几周的就业数据、消费者信心指数以及制造业指数均不及预期。

'Gold has been playing its role as a great diversifier,' said Axel Merk, head of Merk Investments LLC in Palo Alto, Calif., which has $400 million under management. 'U.S. data has raised some doubts about the economy's performance, and people are choosing to buy gold as a hedge. This rally is for real.'

位于加州帕洛阿尔托的投资咨询公司Merk Investments LLC的负责人默克(Axel Merk)说，黄金一直是一种实现分散化投资的好方法。该公司管理着4亿美元资产。他说，美国的数据让人对该国经济的表现产生了一些怀疑，人们开始选择购买黄金作为避险手段。这轮涨势是真实的。

Mr. Merk currently has 15.7% of his fund's assets in gold, up from 8.4% this time last year.

默克的基金目前有15.7%的资产为黄金，去年同期为8.4%。

Gold rose Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said the central bank might consider a pause in its reduction of bond buying if weakness in the economy persists.

美联储主席耶伦(Janet Yellen)曾说，如果经济形势持续低迷，美联储可能考虑暂停缩减购债规模。受耶伦此话的推动，金价周四上涨。

As the Fed shrinks the amount of money it pumps into the economy every month, interest rates are expected to rise, making the dollar more attractive and reducing the allure of alternatives such as gold. Much of gold's fall in 2013 came after the Fed began signaling early in the year it was considering an end to bond purchases.

随着美联储减少每个月向经济中注入的资金额，预计利率将上升，美元会变得更有吸引力，而黄金等替代性投资的吸引力将减弱。2013年金价下跌的主要原因就在于美联储在年初时开始暗示正在考虑终止购债计划。

To be sure, most investors believe the Fed would need to see several more months of weak data to slow the cuts to its asset-purchase program. If the Fed stays on course, bond yields are likely to rise, putting downward pressure on gold, which yields nothing, said Mary Ann Bartels, chief investment officer for portfolio strategies at Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, which has $1.9 trillion in assets under management.

诚然，大部分投资者认为，还需再有几个月的疲弱数据，美联储才会放缓资产购买计划的缩减。美林财富管理(Merrill Lynch Wealth Management)负责投资组合策略的首席投资长巴特尔斯(Mary Ann Bartels)说，如果美联储继续缩减购债，债券收益率可能会上升，给金价带来下行压力，黄金将没有分文的回报。该公司管理着1.9万亿美元资产。

'If you're expecting gold to earn a return, we're asking clients to reconsider owning it,' she said. Ms. Bartels expects gold prices to end the year at $1,100 an ounce, a level unseen since April 2010.

她说，如果你指望在黄金投资上获得回报，那么请重新考虑是否要持有黄金。她预计年底金价将跌至每盎司1,100美元，创2010年4月以来的最低水平。

Still, there are plenty of investors looking for safe places to park their cash, and gold is one of the cheapest forms of protection, says William Larkin, portfolio manager with Cabot Wealth Management Inc., in Salem, Mass., with $550 million under management.

位于马萨诸塞州塞勒姆的投资咨询公司Cabot Wealth Management Inc.的投资组合经理拉金(William Larkin)说，尽管如此，有很多投资者在寻找安全的地方投资他们的现金，而黄金是最便宜的保护形式之一。该公司管理着5.5亿美元资产。

'Gold had a miserable 2013--this thing has been taken out to the woodshed, so I see some value here,' Mr. Larkin said. He has been buying shares of SPDR Gold Shares over the past two months.

拉金说，黄金经过了2013年痛苦的一年，金价暴跌，所以我认为现在黄金有一定的投资价值。过去两个月，他一直在买进SPDR Gold Shares。