普京重拾冷战式谍战

I’ve just finished writing a book that took me into the world of Russian-British double agents during the cold war. I watched these people hop between countries, haunt British prime ministers and (if they were Russians) get killed. (British traitors, especially posh ones, usually walked away scot-free.)

我刚写完一本书，这本书把我带回了冷战时期俄英双面间谍的世界。我看着这些人穿梭于各国之间，令英国历任首相感到苦恼，并遭到杀害（如果他们是俄罗斯人的话）。（而英奸们，尤其是上流社会人士，通常可以逍遥法外。）

Little has changed today. Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia are lying critically ill in Salisbury, weeks after being attacked with a Soviet-era nerve agent. The former Soviet secret policeman Vladimir Putin is recreating the world that shaped him: cold-war spying. Putin can manipulate us because he has learnt that in espionage, it’s not generally the secrets that matter. It’s the reaction of the public, media and politicians whenever spies are exposed to the light.

如今，一切似乎都没变。俄罗斯双面间谍谢尔盖?斯克里帕尔(Sergei Skripal)和女儿尤利娅(Yulia)仍处于病危之中，两人几周前在索尔兹伯里遭到一种苏联时期神经毒剂的袭击。苏联秘密警察出身的弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)正在重建那个曾经塑造了他的世界：冷战式谍战。普京之所以能够操纵我们，是因为他明白，谍报活动中最重要的通常不是那些机密，而是每当间谍暴露在聚光灯下时，公众、媒体和政客们的反应。

For two countries that didn’t have much to do with each other until rich Russians colonised central London this century, Russia and the UK have long engaged in vast mutual spying. But most of it was useless. British double agents such as Kim Philby and Guy Burgess often complained that the Soviets ignored their finds. Many of the British documents that Burgess gave the KGB weren’t even translated into Russian.

虽然俄英两国之间没有太多打交道的地方——直至本世纪众多俄罗斯富豪移居伦敦市中心——但两国相互进行大规模情报刺探由来已久。然而，这些谍报活动大部分都没什么价值。英国双面间谍，如金?菲尔比(Kim Philby)和盖伊?伯吉斯(Guy Burgess)，经常抱怨苏联方面无视他们的发现。伯吉斯发送给克格勃(KGB)的许多英国文件甚至都未翻译成俄文。

One problem was paranoia. You can recruit a traitor, but you can never trust him. The KGB always suspected a golden double agent like Philby of being a British plant.

问题之一是多疑。你可以招募一名叛国者，但你永远不能信任他。克格勃总是怀疑菲尔比这样有前途的双面间谍是英国人设的圈套。

Even when the Soviets believed a piece of intelligence, it tended to get lost. Sometimes the suitcases full of British secrets were too overwhelming. Sometimes intelligence got fragmented or distorted as it was passed up the KGB’s hierarchy. And if the information displeased the boss, it was usually ditched.

即便苏联方面相信某条情报，这条情报也常常不知所终。有时，装满英国机密信息的手提箱信息量太大，苏联方面实在处理不过来。有时，情报会在克格勃内部层层上报的过程中变得不完整或被传变了样。而且，如果情报令老大不悦，通常会被弃用。

Most fatefully, in 1941, Richard Sorge, a Soviet agent in Tokyo, repeatedly warned the Kremlin that Germany would soon invade the USSR. On May 15 he predicted that the invasion would come on June 20-22. But Sorge’s information displeased the boss: Stalin was then still in alliance with Germany. (Famously, Hitler was said to be the only person he trusted.) Stalin dismissed Sorge as “a little shit who has set himself up with some small factories and brothels in Japan”. The German invasion on June 22 stunned the USSR.

最致命的一例是，1941年，驻东京的苏联特工理查德?佐尔格(Richard Sorge)屡次提醒克里姆林宫，德国很快将进攻苏联。那年5月15日，他预测进攻将在6月20日至22日发起。但佐尔格提供的情报惹恼了老大：当时斯大林(Stalin)仍与德国保持联盟关系。（希特勒(Hitler)据称当时是他唯一信任的人。）斯大林不屑地形容佐尔格是“一个混迹日本小工厂和妓院的人渣”。结果，德国6月22日发起的进攻打得苏联措手不及。