桑德斯将助特朗普一臂之力?
Remember Florida’s hanging chads? The bitterness in this year’s Democratic race has not yet hit a point where Bernie Sanders is threatening to run as a third-party candidate. But it is getting perilously close. If it had not been for Ralph Nader’s “spoiler candidacy”, Al Gore would almost certainly have won Florida in 2000 and become president instead of George W Bush.
还记得佛罗里达的“悬空票”吗?今年民主党的大选角逐还没有到达伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)威胁要以第三方候选人参选的地步。但事态已经几近发展到那种程度了。如果不是拉尔夫•纳德(Ralph Nader)的“搅局参选”，阿尔•戈尔(Al Gore)几乎肯定能够在2000年赢下佛罗里达州，由他而不是乔治•W•布什(George W Bush)成为总统。
Mr Sanders could do the same for Donald Trump. The Manhattan billionaire is urging the Vermont socialist to run as an independent in November. Hillary Clinton has rigged the system, says Mr Trump, which is robbing Mr Sanders of what is rightfully his. He should make Mrs Clinton pay the price in the general election.
桑德斯可能为唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)做同样的事情。身为曼哈顿亿万富翁的后者正力劝这位佛蒙特州的社会主义者在11月份以独立候选人的身份参选。特朗普表示，希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)操纵了整个系统，抢走了桑德斯理所应得的东西。桑德斯应该让希拉里在大选中付出代价。
Could Mr Sanders be blind enough to fall for Mr Trump’s ruse? The answer is maybe. For evidence of that, look at the parallels between Mr Sanders and Mr Nader. The latter, who was then 66, ignored calls to drop out of the 2000 race from those who feared he would split the centre-left vote and hand victory to Mr Bush.
桑德斯会不会盲目到落入特朗普的诡计之中呢？答案是有可能。要找证据的话，可以看一看桑德斯和纳德的相似之处。当年66岁的纳德无视那些担心他会分流中间偏左选民的选票、结果让布什胜出的呼声，拒绝退出2000年的大选。
Much like Mr Sanders, 74, he was a child of the 1960s protest culture that saw both political parties as offshoots of corporate America. “Tweedledum and Tweedledee” was how he put it. Mr Sanders only joined the Democratic party last year. He has spent most of his life as an independent socialist. Mr Nader spent most of his as a Green party environmentalist.
和现年74岁的桑德斯很像，纳德也是上世纪60年代抗议文化的产物，按照这种文化的观点，两大政党都是美国企业界的代表，用他的话来说是“半斤八两”。桑德斯去年才加入民主党，他的大半生都是作为独立的社会主义者度过的。而纳德则将大半生投入绿党环保主义者的事业。
Most of all, however, they share a solipsistic mindset that owes more to the student protests of half a century ago than the calculations of 21st-century politics. That, of course, is part of their appeal, particularly to students. It is also a source of their stubbornness. The more Mrs Clinton’s crowd urges Mr Sanders to drop out, the likelier he is to dig in his heels. It could end badly.
但最重要的是，他们都有一种唯我的心态，这种心态更多源于半个世纪前的学生抗议，而非21世纪政治的种种算计。当然，这正是他们两人的吸引力的一部分，尤其是对学生而言。这也是造成他们两人的执着的一个原因。希拉里阵营越是力劝桑德斯退出大选，他就越有可能拒不退出。这可能会造成不好的结果。
The similarities do not end there. Mrs Clinton’s detractors seem to believe she is a uniquely wooden candidate with a frustrating inability to come up with a memorable campaign theme.
事情的相似之处到这里还未结束。希拉里的批评者似乎认为她是一个特别呆板的候选人，令人沮丧地拿不出一个有号召力的竞选主题。
Her political skills are indeed woeful. If full-time politicos are unable to define what Mrs Clinton stands for, the distracted swing voter does not stand a chance. But she is only following in Mr Gore’s footsteps. Remember his theme of “the people against the powerful?” Neither do I. The then vice-president’s belated attempt to present himself as an insurgent against the status quo foreshadowed Mrs Clinton’s -quandary precisely. It is hard to run against an unfair society when you have played a leading role in its administration over the previous eight years. It can even be paralysing. As Mrs Clinton is discovering, it is even tougher when the climate is so poisonously anti-establishment.
她的政治技能的确很糟糕。如果连全职的政治人士都无法界定希拉里的立场，注意力分散的摇摆选民就更没有机会了。但希拉里只是步了戈尔的后尘。还记得戈尔的竞选主题“人民对抗强权”吗？我也不记得。当年，时任副总统的戈尔姗姗来迟地试图把自己包装成对抗现状的反抗者，这预示了希拉里的窘境。如果你在此前的8年在国家的行政当局担任要职，你很难针对一个不公的社会发起竞选。这种情况甚至可能让人无法行动。就像希拉里逐渐发现的，当政治气候如此毒化地反体制时，事情就更加困难了。
This is where Mr Sanders’ complaints could become toxic. In reality, there is nothing rigged about the Democratic contest. If anything, the high number of caucuses that favour candidates with narrowly ardent bases such as Mr Sanders’ has artificially boosted his delegate tally. At the moment Mrs Clinton leads him by nearly 300 pledged delegates. If her share of the votes were proportionately translated, she would have already crossed the victory line.
这正是奥桑德斯的抱怨可能产生毒害的地方。实际上，民主党总统候选人提名过程中没有任何操纵行为。如果说有任何异常的话，那也是支持桑德斯这样拥有狭窄而又死硬的选民基础的候选人的大量党团会议，人为地提升了他的选举人票。此刻，希拉里领先桑德斯近300张选举人票。如果按比例计算希拉里获得的选票份额，她应该早已越过了胜利的终点线。
Nor does Mr Sanders’ complaint about the role of super delegates hold much water. The party’s rules give roughly a fifth of all votes to Democratic bigwigs — senators, governors, party chairs and the like. Given that Mr Sanders is barely even a Democrat it is hardly surprising most prefer Mrs Clinton.
桑德斯对于超级代表角色的抱怨也站不住脚。民主党规定将所有选票的约五分之一给予党内大佬——参议员、州长、党主席等。考虑到桑德斯勉强算是一名民主党员，多数人更喜欢希拉里不足为奇。
If he were leading in either the popular vote, or in pledged delegates, they would be under pressure to switch their support to him, as they did for Barack Obama in 2008, when the front-runner’s lead was far smaller. But Mr Sanders is not ahead on either count. He would need to win 90 per cent of the delegates in the remaining eight primaries over the next three weeks to overtake Mrs Clinton. It is not going to happen.
如果桑德斯能在民众投票或者选举人票这两项之一取得领先，超级代表们将在压力之下转而支持他，就像他们在2008年为巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)所做的那样，当时领先者的优势要小得多。但是桑德斯在这两方面都不处于领先。在接下来的3周里，他需要在剩下的8场初选中赢得90%的选举人票，才能超过希拉里。这是不可能的。
So why is Mr Sanders upping the ante now? Last week, his supporters did a good imitation of Mr Trump’s when they hurled insults and furniture at the allegedly rigged Democratic process in Nevada. The meeting descended into chaos.
那么，桑德斯为何现在加大赌注？上周，桑德斯的支持者们出色地模仿了一次特朗普，他们在内华达州向据称被操纵了的民主党投票过程进行挑衅并投掷家具，使会议陷入混乱。
Mr Sanders’ condemnation of the violence was halfhearted. His campaign issued a statement saying “millions of Americans have growing doubts about the Clinton campaign”. That observation was true enough. But these were not the sentiments of a candidate preparing to bow out graciously. Nor does it seem likely Mr Sanders will be placated by having some of his policies — support for a universal healthcare system, say, or campaign finance reform — added to the Democratic platform at the Philadelphia convention in July. Everyone knows the platform is forgotten the moment it is written.
桑德斯对此次暴力行为的谴责是半心半意的。他的竞选团队发表了一份声明，称“数以百万计的美国人越来越质疑希拉里的竞选活动”。这个结论没错。但这并非一位准备优雅退出的候选人应有的情绪。桑德斯也不大可能以另一种方式自愿让路：在7月费城会议上把他的某些政策——比如，支持全民医疗体系或者竞选融资改革——纳入民主党的政纲。所有人都知道，政纲在写就之后就会被遗忘。
How about a prime speaking role? That, too, would be seen as a bagatelle. Besides, Mr Sanders is having the time of his life addressing adoring crowds of 20,000. He sees no reason to stop now. Nor do his core supporters.
给他一个抛头露面的美差会怎么样？那也将被视为无足轻重。此外，在竞选集会上向2万名崇拜的群众发表演讲，堪称桑德斯的人生高潮，他得意得很，看不到有任何理由现在停下。他的核心支持者也没有理由停下。
Oddly enough, some of his celebrity backers, such as Susan Sarandon and Michael Moore, also egged Mr Nader on in 2000. It seems they have learnt little. Mr Trump, on the other hand, is nothing if not a quick study. The battle between “Crazy Bernie” and “Crooked Hillary” suits him well. The longer it goes on, the stronger he becomes.
奇怪的是，桑德斯的一些名人支持者——如苏珊•萨兰登(Susan Sarandon)和迈克尔•摩尔(Michael Moore)——在2000年也这样怂恿过纳德。他们似乎并未从中吸取教训。另一方面，特朗普学得极快。“疯狂的伯尼”和“不诚实的希拉里”之间的争斗对他来说正中下怀。他俩争斗的时间越长，他变得越强大。
